The Total Supply Of China'S Macro-Economy Is Encountering "3.5" Cost Shocks.

Li Daokui, Professor of economics and management, Tsinghua University,

　　中國宏觀經濟總供給正遭遇“三個半”成本沖擊

Macroeconomic regulation and control policy should be "offensive and defensive", that is, to strictly control credit and prevent the trend of rising prices from becoming vicious inflation.

In the discussion of fortune forum, Li Daokui held that the problems facing China's macro-economy are actually intertwined from two aspects: the expansion of aggregate demand caused by excess liquidity and the impact of total supply shocks.

In the short term, the government is expected to introduce some tax reform policies to help enterprises to resolve the impact of rising costs.

All along, the media has paid high attention to the problems of aggregate demand, such as fixed assets investment, inflation and credit expansion in some sectors and regions.

"On the other hand, we must see that in the macroeconomic field, there is another problem which seems to me to be more important, more complex and more complicated, and there are also problems in our total supply side."

Li Daokui said.

　　成本沖擊來自“三個半”方面

He believes that the total supply side will face a continuous increase in total operating costs, resulting in a decline in production willingness.

The cost shock comes from the "3.5" aspect.

The first aspect is that the cost of labor employment is rising.

The trend of the pfer of surplus rural labor to the cities has come to an end, and the pformation of economic structure has led to the rise of wage levels.

The latest figures from the National Bureau of statistics show that the average wage in the first quarter of this year has increased by 18%.

The second cost shock is the rise in international raw material prices. But Li Daokui believes that speculation in international hot money and depreciation of the US dollar are not the most important factors in the sharp rise in international commodity prices.

The most important reason is that the supply relationship of global crude oil and global raw material market has changed.

Over the past five years, the growth rate of global crude oil demand has exceeded the growth rate of production capacity, resulting in a sharp decline in surplus capacity.

In the short term, the elasticity of demand is very low. It is necessary to substantially raise the price of crude oil in order to reduce consumption demand.

This is also the reason for the soaring prices of other commodities.

The third cost shock is that the cost of energy saving and environmental protection has been improved. The State advocates energy saving and environmental protection, and enterprises need to invest.

This is a good thing, but in the short term it brings about an increase in the cost of running an enterprise.

Li Daokui's "half factor" refers to the rising cost of paying taxes.

The first quarter data released in many regions this year show that the tax growth rate is far higher than the growth rate of GDP.

He suggested that the macro control policy should be "offensive and defensive", that is, strictly controlling credit and preventing the trend of rising prices from developing into hyperinflation.

For example, can we reduce the tax burden of enterprises and promote the reform of value-added tax? Or we can help local enterprises to introduce advanced technology and R & D capabilities, enhance their market operation capabilities and reduce their operating costs, and engage in forward-looking industrial planning.

This supply side impact will be long-term, because it is an inevitable obstacle to China's economic pformation and upgrading.

If we can ease the impact of rising costs of enterprises and increase the supply of products, we can also ease the inflationary pressure, and therefore deserve more attention.

　　關注國際市場金融動蕩

He urged that the market should pay close attention to the financial turbulence that may occur in the international market in six months.

His basic judgement is that the turmoil in western financial markets, which is triggered by the subprime crisis, is likely to stabilize in six months to a year. At the same time, the western market led by the United States is unlikely to suffer a large-scale recession in the next three or four years. Instead, it may enter a long-term low growth rate of about 2% or less than 2%.

But when the US financial market stabilizes, it may lead to the backflow of funds flowing into emerging market countries in the early years. Vietnam, Indonesia and India markets may be withdrawn from overseas investors, making them bear the biggest cost of US financial turbulence.

Once this situation is formed, the Chinese economy will definitely be affected, because the financial crisis is contagious. International investors are often irrational when the financial crisis comes. They can not tell clearly what is the difference between China and Vietnam, and what is the difference between Vietnam and India.

Next, investors should pay attention to this situation and prepare for it.

In terms of policy level and enterprise level, there are some plans for investment.

　　“制度救市”更可行

Li Daokui believes that the government will not sit down in the downturn in the stock market and will take some measures to support it.

But this support policy is not to go the old way, not to inject liquidity, not to allow more funds to be issued to attract more investors to enter the market, because these practices may not work in the long run, or even deeper.

The more feasible way is "system bailout", that is, to take various measures to promote listed companies to provide better benefits to shareholders, such as cash returns.

We should vigorously advocate and even require the cash dividends of listed companies.

If a listed company can now take profits from 60%~70%, dividends can be achieved at the current level, and the cash return rate of the stock market can be roughly equal to the fixed interest rate of one year.

In the short term, it will play a supporting role in the stock market, and at the same time, it can also improve the corporate governance structure and gradually create the concept and culture of value investing to a certain extent.