Industrial Adjustment Is Experiencing Weak External Demand, And It Is Suggested To Speed Up The Export Tax Rebate.

It is the portrayal of the textile industry in the first half of the year that "domestic enterprises want to go out, and export enterprises want to come in".

According to statistics from the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, only more than 3000 textile foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong have stopped exporting because of the poor export market this year. Because of the sluggish domestic demand, nearly 4000 enterprises have changed from domestic sales to exports.

As the most typical labor-intensive, export-oriented and small and medium sized enterprises in China, textile has become the most stressful industry in China this year.

Since April this year, it has become the focus of intensive research by relevant ministries, chambers of Commerce and associations.

The industry support policy jointly formulated by the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of Finance and the three ministries of Commerce has also become the hope of many enterprises struggling.

The textile import and Export Chamber of Commerce has repeatedly organized personnel to investigate local enterprises in Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Beijing Tianjin areas this year. According to customs data and investigation, it reports on the situation and puts forward its own policy proposals at the relevant meetings convened by the Ministry of Commerce and the development and Reform Commission, hoping that the state will propose industry support policies.

In July 17th, Cao Xinyu, vice president of the chamber of Commerce, told an exclusive interview with our reporter that during the course of the investigation, the vast majority of textile and garment enterprises believed that in 2008, the export situation of textile and clothing was unprecedentedly severe, and most enterprises were on the margins of profit or loss.

He suggested that we should speed up the export tax rebate and hope that the government can give some guidance to the industry in terms of financing.

The adverse factors are still deteriorating.

Twenty-first Century: since the beginning of this year, textile and garment enterprises have generally reflected export difficulties, reduced profits, problems in operation, and even many enterprises have failed. At present, the situation has been clearer for six months. When entering the critical period of policy adjustment, how can the chamber of Commerce analyze the export situation of textile and clothing in the first half of this year?

Cao Xinyu: at the moment, it is certain that China's textile and garment exports show a trend of high before and after this year.

From 1 to June, the export of textiles and garments was 81 billion 679 million US dollars, an increase of 11.4%.

Among them, exports in June decreased by 4.2% in a single month, which is the first time since 1999, the first month negative export growth occurred in June.

There are two reasons at home and abroad.

When China's industrial upgrading, growth mode adjustment and product adjustment, foreign demand is insufficient and the market is weak.

At the domestic level, first of all, the issue of RMB exchange rate. The appreciation of RMB has exceeded 7% this year, exceeding the magnitude of last year. At present, there is little possibility that the currency will be stable in the short term. This will definitely reduce the profit of export.

At the same time, the uncertainty of exchange risk also makes enterprises afraid to take orders and receive orders.

Second, the cost of labor has risen sharply. According to our research, the labor force increase in coastal areas has increased the cost of 10%-15% enterprises.

Third, the rising cost of raw materials, such as oil and energy, has also spread to the entire industrial chain.

Fourth, the cost of corporate finance is rising.

Now that money is tight, many banks list textile as a sunset industry, and refuse to lend to businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

Enterprises have to turn to private financing, the interest rate is about 1-4 times the bank interest rate; even if they get bank loans, loan interest rates are also rising.

At the same time, foreign buyers dragging the settlement period to gain exchange rate spreads and pfer risks to China's export enterprises.

A few days ago, the foreign exchange administration, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly promulgated and implemented the "Internet connection verification method for export collection and settlement". This will also extend the cycle of foreign exchange settlement and increase the risk of foreign exchange earnings.

Fifth, the export tax rebate rate is too slow, in many places, enterprises from application to get export tax rebate, about half a year or so, increasing the financial pressure of enterprises.

According to the business projections, the total export cost has increased by more than 20% this year. Due to the decline of external demand, most enterprises have low bargaining power, so it is impossible for enterprises to pfer the new cost to foreign businessmen. Most enterprises have only 3%-5% bargaining space, and the accelerated loss of orders is inevitable.

Twenty-first Century: many enterprises have also reflected that this year's orders have declined.

Cao Xinyu: international factors are also important. Generally speaking, the export market is weak.

First, the largest US market now continues to subprime debt crisis, and many agencies have lowered the credit rating of us importers.

From 1 to May this year, exports to the US textile and apparel amounted to US $8 billion 650 million, an increase of only 1.4% over the same period last year, of which clothing exports also dropped by 3.6%, and the average export price dropped by 0.46%.

Of course, with the overall decline in US imports, this data has already reflected the competitiveness of China's textile industry.

Second, the EU economy has been affected by high exchange rates, high oil prices and high inflation, and the market has also had problems.

This year, the European clothing enterprises will advance the discount period by two months.

Europe's annual discount period is strictly stipulated by law, so the early discount can only explain that the current sales are not good.

Third, exports to traditional pit markets such as Hongkong, Panama, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore have also declined this year, especially for the third largest export markets, Hongkong.

It is worrying that these unfavorable factors mentioned above do not see the trend of improvement at present. Some factors may deteriorate further in the second half of the year.

Industrial upgrading suffers from market weakness

Twenty-first Century: but we can see that the textile and garment industry is also different, for example, 1-6 months, textile yarn, fabrics and products exports 5 billion 610 million US dollars, an increase of 22.2%, which seems to be better than the clothing industry.

Cao Xinyu: the yarn is in good condition, which reflects the supporting ability of the textile industry.

Due to cost and other reasons, many enterprises have shifted their clothing to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Kampuchea and other countries, but these countries have not formed an industrial chain like China, so they can only import fabrics from China.

According to China Customs data and US customs data, in 2007, China exported 46.8% of its exports to Vietnam, while the United States grew 35.3% from Vietnam's clothing imports in the year, 18.6% of China's exports to Indonesia, 18.6% of its imports from Indonesia, 8.5% of its exports to China, 12.8% of its exports to Kampuchea, and 13.5% of its imports from Cambodia.

This shows the pfer of orders.

Therefore, the most important part of the textile industry is the terminal industry such as clothing and home textiles. They can play a leading role in the whole industry chain including fabric, buttons, zippers and printing and dyeing, and the difficulty lies in the decline of garment export.

Twenty-first Century: in recent years, China has been committed to readjust its industrial structure and upgrade its manufacturing industry. Are the difficulties faced by enterprises now necessary for industrial upgrading?

Cao Xinyu: according to our judgement, there are basically no reasons for growth and export.

The problem now is that when the industry is adjusting in China, foreign demand is weak, and the market does not accept adjustment.

Enterprises invested heavily in equipment, R & D investment, upgraded and adjusted, but found that there was no market and investment could not be recovered.

For example, cherry blossoms in Shandong, as a large textile enterprise, is in the process of industrial chain extension in the capital chain fracture and problems.

So the adjustment space of enterprises is compressed now.

Our statistics show that under the influence of various factors, only more than 3000 enterprises with textile export performance in Guangdong have not exported this year. They may stop production, pfer or even go bankrupt.

On the other hand, despite the small profit margins of textile exports, 1-5 textile export enterprises were added in May this year, and only more than 2500 enterprises were added in January alone.

This is mainly because there are still big problems in domestic sales, and the clothing consumption price index is decreasing month by month.

Many enterprises have to develop the European and American markets first, hoping that the market will be better after the quota monitoring is changed.

Industry financing needs government support.

Twenty-first Century: which enterprise is the most difficult now?

Cao Xinyu: now the most difficult is the simple order production, no product brand or service brand enterprises, these enterprises in the majority of small and medium enterprises.

Although these enterprises are small profits, they absorb a lot of employment and contribute greatly to the local economy.

For example, Zibo, Shandong, now has more than 30% orders to India, Vietnam, Pakistan and other neighboring countries, resulting in only 80% of the operating rate, if this continues, the city's textile and garment workers in the tens of thousands of workers are facing unemployment worries.

It is estimated that China's textile and garment industry absorbs at least about 20000000 of the directly employed population, of whom 70% are over 14 million of the surplus labor force pferred from the rural areas, and more than 100 million of the agricultural population provides nearly 10 million tons of natural fiber raw materials for the textile industry every year.

In the textile industry of Shandong alone, about 4 million 500 thousand of the people were employed, of whom about 3 million 500 thousand were migrant workers.

Therefore, we also hope that the cost of the adjustment process will be as small as possible, stable and gradual.

Twenty-first Century: in the course of the investigation, the central leadership of the Central Committee specially went to the textile enterprises to understand the situation, which enabled the textile enterprises to increase their support policies.

What is the view of the chamber of Commerce on the callback rate of the export tax rebates currently under discussion?

What are your policy recommendations for the government?

Cao Xinyu: the export tax rebate rate callback first shows that the state has some understanding of the textile industry's difficulties this year, so that enterprises have confidence in the future; second, they can moderately increase the profit margins of enterprises.

But in fact, once the export tax rebate rate is raised, foreign buyers will also respond. This part of the profits of the enterprise will be quickly divided, and the effective time will not exceed half a year.

Therefore, we believe that the more effective way is to expedite the export rebate rate. This part of the profits are actually given to enterprises.

In addition, we also hope that the government can give some guidance to the industry in terms of financing and appropriately relax policies.

The change in the RMB exchange rate is best able to avoid large fluctuations.

At the very least, industry development requires a stable policy environment.

At the same time, if the enterprise can survive the cold winter of two years and other unfavorable factors at home and abroad, there will be considerable development.