Where Does The Trade Policy Go?

On July 4, 2008 -8, in just six days, 4 central leaders went to Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and 5 export-oriented provinces with the most developed economy to conduct economic investigation and research.

The survival state of foreign trade enterprises has once again entered the horizon of central decision-making.

China's trade strategy has been evolving towards the "upgrading structure". "Reducing the surplus" is still one of the focuses of the business sector.

RMB appreciation and export tax rebate are two major policies to promote trade balance.

After this round of foreign trade, the adjustment of trade policy will be a difficult choice.

Ling Fangcai has received more than ten research materials this year.

Ling is the chairman of Guangdong textiles import and export Limited by Share Ltd.

As one of the largest garment exporters in Guangdong, since 2008, more research has been conducted than ever before.

First, the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, followed by local economic and trade systems, local business associations, Statistics Bureau, safe and other foreign trade related departments.

Research departments vary, but research topics are more and more concentrated.

Ling Fang's ten research, three research on the export difficulties of enterprises, three research on the impact of RMB appreciation on the export of enterprises, a survey of the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on exports, and a survey of the impact of the export tax rebate rate adjustment on enterprises in 2007.

"This is our most difficult year."

Ling Fangcai said.

Same difficulty, different expression.

"Now it is a loss making export, but we dare not close the door, so it is very difficult to start again. After the shutdown, there is a chain reaction of banks to loans, and enterprises are under pressure to export."

Yang Desheng, deputy director of the Shandong Provincial Department of foreign trade and economic cooperation, pointed out the dilemma of foreign trade enterprises.

The situation of enterprises from Zhejiang is also not good.

"The financial cost of some small and medium-sized enterprises has increased by 45%-50%."

In July 17th, Xu Guanju, chairman of Zhejiang Federation of industry and Commerce and chairman of Zhejiang Communications Group, said in an interview with our reporter.

This reporter was informed that the current research conclusions of ministries and commissions have not been fully promulgated, including labour intensive export industries including textiles and clothing, which may become policy beneficiaries.

The policy recommendations submitted by various chambers of commerce are mainly aimed at maintaining the stability of the policy, the export tax rebate callbacks and the support of the capital side. These three items.

However, at present, other industries do not have clear policy information in addition to the export tax rebate policy of textile and clothing.

1 全國大摸底

The textile industry is on the line of life and death.

Cao Xinyu had never been so nervous in the past six months after the 2005 textile insurance survey.

Cao Xinyu is vice president of China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the rapid deterioration of the textile and garment export situation, the chamber has organized 4 large-scale research and 5 special market research.

Nearly 10 nationwide surveys in half a year are rare.

Cao Xinyu said that over the years he has come to a conclusion that "when the media find me most frequently, it is the worst time for the textile industry."

The first survey in 2008 was launched in February, when the commerce department just opened a ventilation meeting, and put forward to prevent the exchange rate change, tightening policy, subprime crisis, the implementation of the new labor contract law and other multiple factors, which caused a great blow to exports.

Subsequently, the China Textile chamber of Commerce launched its first survey.

However, the first research plan has just been written out, and the second research survey was launched in March.

It is time that reports of large-scale collapse of labour intensive enterprises in the Pearl River Delta began to appear in newspapers.

In order to understand the actual situation of the Ministry of Commerce, the China Textile chamber of Commerce has visited Guangdong Dongguan and Jiangsu Wujiang on the spot.

The Canton Fair opened in April 15th.

At that time, the eighteenth Shanghai East China Import and Export Fair, which was just concluded, made a negative growth for the first time.

During the 5 day session, textile and clothing products were traded at 1 billion 844 million US dollars, down 0.54% from the previous session.

Before the Canton Fair, the China Textile chamber of Commerce launched third surveys to find out the survival of textile enterprises.

The fourth survey was in 5 and June. The export situation in the second half of this year is already imminent.

After several investigations, the China Textile chamber of Commerce submitted a research report to the Ministry of Commerce and put forward a series of policy adjustment proposals.

"Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises are relatively less complaining, and the most grieved are the central and western enterprises, as well as enterprises in Dongguan, Zhongshan and other places in Guangdong."

Cao Xinyu said that the business foundation of the central and western enterprises was relatively weak, so the policy tightening and other factors had a great impact on it.

A toy exporter in Guangdong has participated in four or five kinds of seminars this year. Two of them went to Beijing to attend the forum of China Light Industry Arts and crafts import and Export Chamber of Commerce.

"At the time of the talks, they were repeatedly asked what difficulties they encountered, the next trend, and what countermeasures and suggestions" the exporter told reporters.

2 決策層出發

After the initial exploration, the problems reflected have aroused the attention of decision-makers.

This reporter learned that after entering June, including the general office of the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, the development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the General Administration of customs and the State Administration of Taxation, a number of departments, that is, start intensive research, grasp the current export situation.

The local system and relevant chambers of Commerce and associations have also helped to cooperate.

"Basically are in the bottom", the digital research participants told reporters that the decision makers want to clarify the export status, with a view to accurately predict the export situation in the second half or even next year, and these research reports may be warming up policies.

According to people familiar with the matter, before and after June, the relevant leaders of the State Council have already instructed the ministries of Commerce, development and Reform Commission, General Administration of customs, State Administration of Taxation, Ministry of Finance and other ministries and committees to investigate the export situation in their respective areas.

It is reported that these research materials will be summarized in the first half of each department's economic situation analysis conference, and then the research report will be submitted to the State Council.

An official of the Guangdong economic and trade system also said that the Ministry of Commerce has made many trips to Guangdong this year to investigate, "it only came to several times in June".

He said that Vice Minister of Commerce in Guangzhou will also go to Guangdong to understand the situation. The theme of the survey is "Pearl River Delta business situation research forum".

The main topics include the current difficulties faced by enterprises, the expected trend of next step and the three parts of countermeasures and suggestions.

Guangzhou economic and Trade Bureau has received 7 groups of research teams from Beijing in the past month.

In July 17th, Xiao Zhenyu, director of the Guangzhou Municipal Economic and Trade Bureau, said that the office of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs and the office of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao have arrived in Guangzhou.

In recent two days, relevant officials of the State Council Secretariat are also studying the ecology of small and medium-sized enterprises in Guangdong.

Customs officers also revealed to reporters that in early July, some local customs officials began to hold business seminars and submitted reports to the General Administration of Customs in conjunction with the regional conditions.

He said that they were preparing materials for the "first half year economic situation analysis conference" in mid July.

Our reporter was informed that the current foreign trade situation report, the Ministry of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute launched related research topics, the research group will make policy recommendations in this report.

In addition, some traders and associations including China Light Industry Crafts Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, China Chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical products import and export, and China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce have basically completed the investigation. Some businessmen and associations have submitted reports to the Ministry of Commerce or the relevant think-tank of the State Council, the most important of which is the policy recommendations on various industries.

By July, the situation was pressing.

The early stage is not over yet, and the decision makers have personally taken the baton.

On the last weekend of June, the Department of foreign trade and economic cooperation of Jiangsu Province issued an urgent notice to all provincial foreign economic and trade enterprises, demanding to provide basic materials for the upcoming high-level research, and requested that the foreign trade office be completed within three working days.

3 數據水分

Intensive research and research are linked to a series of fluctuating data.

Statistics released by the Customs on July 10th showed that the total value of China's imports and exports reached US $1 trillion and 234 billion 170 million in 1-6 this year, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%.

If we look at absolute data growth, this is not only a worrying data.

The Dow Jones newswires surveyed 12 economists, who expect June exports to rise by 23.4% over the same period last year.

Economists' predictions are comparable to those published.

But this is absolute growth data, followed by a downward curve.

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