China'S Economy Faces Three Major Contradictions: Macro Policy May Turn To Hard Landing.

After 30 years of rapid growth, China's economy is facing three major problems: "structural contradiction of aggregate demand, double threat of inflation and deflation" and "imbalance of international payments".

The "prevention of hard landing" will become the focus of macroeconomic policy in the second half of this year. This is the news from Peking University Alumni Association of Shanghai and the Shanghai branch of the Bank of communications, Peking University, Shanghai Yuan Pei forum.

Professor Liu Wei, Dean of the school of economics, Peking University, told reporters that the main contradiction is the serious structural contradiction in the overall demand of China's economic operation.

Fixed asset investment has remained high for a long time and the consumer market has been weakening for a long time.

From 2003 to now, the growth rate of fixed assets investment demand in China has always been above 24%, which has exceeded the affordability of the national economy.

On the other hand, 88% of the 600 kinds of industrial consumer goods exceed demand, which indicates that the demand for consumer goods is weak.

The second major contradictions are the simultaneous threat of inflation and deflation.

Liu Wei thinks deflation is caused by weak market demand and bankruptcy of enterprises, resulting in unemployment.

The larger the foreign exchange reserve is, the greater the volume of exchange will be, the more money will be circulated, and the inflationary pressure will be greater.

This is the third major contradiction facing the Chinese economy.

Inflation is already an indisputable fact. The key is whether the current inflation is controllable.

Chen Xingdong, chief economist of Paris securities (Asia) Limited, France, believes that with the implementation of a series of policies such as the labor law and energy conservation and emission reduction, the cost of commodities will naturally increase reasonably.

More importantly, the rise in the price of crude oil, iron ore and other means of production directly brings in the input of global inflation. In the face of this, we can do nothing but a drop in the bucket.

Under the regulation of a series of austerity policies, the speed of economic growth has fallen.

Inflation is still at a high level, which leads to the risk of stagflation.

The state began tightening monetary policy last year to curb inflation. At the same time, the state has implemented fiscal policies such as raising personal tax points to expand demand and stimulate consumption.

"Relaxation of price controls, investment control and monetary policy should be the topic of discussion, and the appreciation of the Renminbi should also slow down."

Chen Xingdong also revealed that the central government is opening economic work meetings these days, and a small part of the policies, such as raising the refined oil prices again, may be introduced shortly after the Olympic Games. More macroeconomic policy adjustments will surfaced in the fourth quarter.