The Rise Of Oil And Electricity Prices Is Undoubtedly Exacerbated By The Woolen Knitting Industry.

    電價(jià)平均每千瓦時(shí)提高2.5分錢，這將直接導(dǎo)致整個(gè)紡織行業(yè)一年增加用電負(fù)擔(dān)37.5億元，占到2007年整個(gè)紡織行業(yè)利潤總額的3.2%；一噸普梳紗成本增加10－12元左右，精梳紗15－18元不等。然而來自國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，５月份衣著類出廠價(jià)格上漲2.4%的同時(shí)，衣著類消費(fèi)價(jià)格卻下降了1.5％，其中服裝消費(fèi)價(jià)格下降了1.6％。    

Since July 1st, the national development and Reform Commission announced in June 19th the price of electricity, the increase of 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour of temporary price intervention, will follow June 20th gasoline and diesel prices increase by 1000 yuan per ton, aviation kerosene price increased by 1500 yuan per ton, it is the implementation.

The national development and Reform Commission said that the current market price of electricity coal is 300 yuan higher than that of the same period last year. If coal and electricity linkage calculation is needed, at least 6 cents should be raised. "Now the increase in electricity price is 2 yuan, which is only 50 yuan higher than the price of electricity coal 1 tons."

According to the data of China's coal market network, after the new standard was implemented in Qinhuangdao in June 19th, the high quality electricity coal price of the market rose from 900 yuan per ton of 18 days to 910 to 930 yuan / ton.

Therefore, the rising price of coal and electricity has become the "culprit" under the situation of increased operating costs and low profit margins.

The increase in oil and electricity prices will drive the production and pportation costs of the knitting industry up.

For the knitting industry, which is at a time of eventful events, it is undoubtedly worse.

The rising prices of production factors, the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the short notice of the callback rate of export rebates and the continuous upward adjustment of loan interest rates last year made it difficult for small and medium-sized knitting enterprises that already had no competitive advantages.

The rise in electricity prices has led to an increase in the cost of production and pportation and the weakening of the competitiveness of product prices.

Although the electricity price has increased by an average of only 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour, according to the comprehensive calculation of the first textile network, it will directly lead to an increase of 3 billion 750 million yuan in electricity consumption in the whole textile industry in a year. This expenditure has also accounted for 3.2% of the total profit of the textile industry in 2007.

    原料價(jià)格上漲

The increase of electricity price directly leads to the increase of some raw material prices.

It is estimated that, according to the calculation of 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour, a ton of combed yarn will increase by about 10-12 yuan, and combed yarn will be 15-18 yuan.

The chemical fiber materials related to the post finishing are skyrocketing, the experts introduce that in the main power consumption products of chemical fiber, the power consumption of viscose filament production enterprises accounts for the highest proportion of the manufacturing cost, the average industry level is about 15%, and the power consumption of some backward enterprises is higher.

According to the statistics of China Chemical Fiber Association, the power consumption of chemical fiber industry in 2007 was 22 billion 200 million degrees and the unit consumption was 972.5 kwh / ton.

The national sales price increased by 0.025 yuan per kilowatt hour on average. If the consumption of 972.5 kilowatt hours per ton is calculated, the cost of chemical fiber will increase by 24.3 yuan / ton directly, and the total chemical fiber industry will increase the total electricity consumption by 555 million yuan in one year.

This expenditure alone accounts for nearly 4% of the total profit of the chemical fiber industry in 2007.

At the same time, influenced by the national development and Reform Commission policy, some wool yarn prices in Nanjing's wool market are rising all the way.

Australia's wool yarn 48Nm/2 (64S Australian wool spinning), 32Nm/2 (60S Australian wool spinning), the average price in June this year compared with the same period last June, respectively, rose 3.13%, 0.86%.

Carbonized wool and representative varieties 66S and 64S, respectively, increased by 12.76% and 5.1% respectively in June compared with the same period last year.

New Zealand washed wool T730, T107/3-5 inches and last year's year-on-year rise, respectively, 2%, 7.6%.

This does not include the pmission factor that increases because of the increase in oil price.

It can be expected that if the wool knitting enterprises can not reduce the electricity consumption in a timely manner or use the difference between peak and valley electricity prices to calculate the economic accounts, and consciously avoid the peak and fill the valley, the increase in electricity price will surely increase the cost of production.

Rising logistics costs

In addition to the rise in the prices of production factors, the increase in pport costs is also imminent.

"The rising freight rate is only a matter of time," Wang Qian, editor in chief of the first textile network, told reporters.

This part of the cost increase still needs to digest to a large extent.

He believes that as the raw materials and finished products of textile enterprises are mainly pported by road pportation, the price of oil will increase by nearly 20%, and the cost of freight will increase.

In his view, under the pressure of pportation costs and energy price rises, the impact of the textile and garment industry is long and brutal.

"Because the ability to pfer prices to downstream users is extremely limited, the profitability of the industry continues to decline, and profits are as thin as razor blades."

Knitting industry, as a branch of the textile industry, is also affected by this.

In the survey, we found that compared with the same period in previous years, the number of first order orders for many sweater brand agents declined exponentially.

Oil and electricity prices, due to chain reaction, is also the logistics and pportation costs of products greatly improved.

As China's aviation kerosene price rises in June 20th, the airline's fares will also rise.

According to the joint securities estimates, assuming that the price of aviation kerosene does not continue to rise, the average annual average fuel price of domestic airlines is expected to increase by 30% over the same period last year. If the airline fully pfers the price of aviation fuel to the lower reaches, the domestic fares of airlines will need to be increased by 12%.

According to the regulation issued by the national development and Reform Commission in June 30th to adjust the fuel surcharge for domestic routes, from July 1, 2008 (the date of issue), domestic flights increased to 60 yuan from 800 yuan to 80 yuan, and each passenger from 800 kilometers (above) to 100 yuan to 150 yuan.

If calculated according to this standard, that is to say, a sweater brand agent who frequently orders between Xi'an and Zhejiang Pu Yuan, the cost of a one-way trip will be changed from original (1130+150=1280) yuan to (1130+1130 * 12%+200=1465.6) yuan, a full increase of 185.60 yuan.

If you calculate the trip four times a year, the cost will be increased by about 1500 yuan.

Then, what are the main pportation channels of knitted apparel products and the situation of cars?

Let's take a look at a set of data: in April, the gasoline No. 93 of the state II standard used in Guangzhou was priced at 5.22 yuan / liter, but the price of No. 93 gasoline upgraded from the May 1st to the national standard III rose to 5.36 yuan / litre. In June 20th, the 93 gasoline on the market was already 6.25 yuan per liter. In less than two months, the price of 93 gasoline rose by 1.03 yuan per litre.

According to this calculation, in June 20th, a shipment of products from Jiaxing to Hangzhou, assuming that the journey is just 100 kilometers and the fuel oil is 10 liters, the cost will increase by 10.3 yuan.

Therefore, Wang Qian, editor in chief of the first textile network, believes that the negative impact of the electricity price increase on enterprises is sustained and rigid, and that the increase in oil prices will directly increase their production costs.

Decline in spending power

Oil and electricity are the most basic and important means of production in the economic operation, and the impact on the whole social economy is very obvious.

The rise in oil and electricity prices may also lead to more serious inflation in the second half of this year.

On the one hand, it is bound to increase the intensity of national monetary tightening policy; on the other hand, clothing consumption will continue to shrink.

Therefore, the rise in the price of oil and electricity not only directly increases the operating cost of the knitting industry, but also has a certain negative impact on the situation faced by the entire knitting industry.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics in mid June, the total consumer price level of China (CPI) rose 7.7% in May, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, said: "the slight fall in food prices and the reduction of the tail factor have brought down CPI growth."

In May, the CPI growth rate dropped. Is this change a long-term trend?

Goldman Sachs Asia research team believes that if the central bank can prevent a rebound in the growth of money supply, then the CPI inflation rate may have peaked and will fall back to the level of 5%-6% later this year, otherwise it will need to be reassessed.

Although CPI has been rising all the way, it is in sharp contrast to the rapidly rising cost of additional consumption.

The industry believes that this is mainly due to the fact that our clothing production has been in a state of oversupply, and there is little room for shifting costs and raising prices.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of manufactured goods in China (PPI) is at 8% level for third consecutive months. In May, it was a new high. PPI rose to a high level in the same period last year. The clothing factory's price rose by 2.4%, and the cost generated by the increase in the price of oil and electricity will be pmitted to the apparel factory price, which will further increase the clothing factory's factory price.

At the same time, this year's inflation situation makes the downstream consumer market weak also become an indisputable fact, the National Bureau of statistics data show that in May clothing prices rose 2.4%, while clothing consumer prices fell by 1.5%, of which clothing consumer prices fell by 1.6%, the textile and garment industry profit outlook is still not optimistic in the second half.

According to an authoritative sample survey, the average net interest rate of 80% enterprises surveyed in the more than 140 textile enterprises nationwide is below 5%, of which 39% of the enterprises average net interest rate is less than 3%, and the average net interest rate is 41% in 3%-5% enterprises, and the average net interest rate is only 6% in 8%-12%.

Along with the decline of textile industry's profit, the price index is also rising, and the average profit of knitting industry is also declining.

A sample survey showed that 80% of the first order orders for wool knitting enterprises accelerated this year. A knitting enterprise in Huzhou, Zhejiang, said that the number of franchisees dropped to 10% compared with the same period last year.

Wang Qianjin, the first analyst of textile and clothing business weekly, believes that the impact of the knitting industry is long and brutal.

In the future, the rising cost of oil, electricity and coal prices is irreversible. The economic operation of the knitting industry has entered a high cost era.