New Cotton Quotes Will Fall Below 13000 Yuan / Ton.

The expectation of cotton prices in 2007/2008 is a little bit shattered. The price of real estate cotton and Xinjiang grade three cotton is still 13500 to 13600 yuan / ton, but the actual paction price is 13100 yuan / ton.

Under the double pressure of the Agricultural Bank's loan rush and the new cotton market listing period, the cotton merchants have "dumped the goods", and the loss of meat has become the only choice for the cotton enterprises.

The current sale of cotton enterprises, selling a ton of cotton net loss of more than 800 to 1000 yuan, interest on loans, cotton weight loss and warehousing costs are the main factors.

The prediction of cotton enterprises' link price to grade three new cotton and Chen Mian has been adjusted to less than 13000 yuan / ton, and the downward trend of the current price has exacerbated this worry, which has been caught in the "vicious circle".

Some large cotton mills are affected by the lack of cash flow. Recently, the purchase of imported cotton has been intensified. For example, Shandong Wei Qiao Textile Group recently received many cotton and Central Asian cotton from Louis DA and other foreign investors.

From the cost point of view, the price of new cotton is hard to fall below the level of the same period of last year. 13000 yuan / ton is a level acceptable to everyone in the short term.

Some cotton enterprises said that the cost of cotton planting by cotton growers rose sharply, and the increase in labor costs plus the increase in oil prices, electricity charges and maintenance costs brought the cost of lint at least 300 yuan / ton more than that of the same period last year.

At present, there are two contradictions: first, the contradiction between the listing price of cotton processing enterprises and the cotton farmers' anticipation of cotton sale -- the price of seed cotton is low, cotton farmers do not sell, more than 3.20 yuan / Jin, and the cotton mill does not dare to accept it; the second is the indirect contradiction between the cotton mill and the cotton mill. 2008/2009 is likely to rise as the main contradiction.

Because the cotton circulation enterprise as a "reservoir" may not dare to intervene in the early and middle stages of the new cotton listing, the short-term lint plus enterprises should directly face the cotton mills. The profits of the cotton mill will be severely compressed under the premise that the former is eager to return the funds and expand the purchase amount.

Compared with cotton mills and ginning enterprises, cotton growers are always in a weak and passive position.

Speaking from the supply of cotton, the smooth pition of new cotton market is the main trend before and after the listing. However, under the situation of oversupply, no matter whether the cotton is planted or the cost of processing is not supported.

According to the statistics of the national cotton trading market, as at July 15th, the total number of lint in the delivery, supervision and pledge warehouse was 750 thousand tons, compared with 260 thousand tons in the same period last year, plus the Xinjiang cotton which did not come out of Xinjiang, the total commercial inventory will reach more than 1 million tons at the end of July. The Xinjiang cotton which has moved to the mainland in large quantities is still unsalable, and the three grade cotton of real estate is 13100 yuan / ton.

A textile enterprise in Jiangsu said, "there are many cotton in the warehouse now. Many cotton traders I know do not have cotton on hand, and some have thousands of tons.

At this time of the past year, 100% of our factories were imported cotton, because domestic cotton was used up, but now there are many domestic cotton. We choose between real estate cotton and imported cotton. At present, real estate cotton accounts for more than 80% in the warehouse.

The weather has been pretty good recently. Cotton output should not be changed greatly. Cotton prices will hardly rise. "

However, an enterprise in Tangshan, Hebei, does not agree with the price of 13000 yuan / ton. "It will not increase much if it wants to go up. The textile enterprises are all going to die.

I expect that the price will be 13500-13600 yuan / ton, which includes the profits of cotton enterprises.