The Domestic Market Growth Of Textile And Apparel Will Begin To Decline Next Year.

Per capita disposable income, urbanization rate and population growth are Textile apparel The main driving force of demand growth. According to the national "11th Five-Year" development plan, the annual population growth is controlled at 8%. Below, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents increased by 5% annually, the national urbanization ratio reached 47%, the national total population reached 1 billion 360 million, and the domestic market is expected to continue to grow.

      - Macro economy Deceleration causes growth rate to fall and is hard to avoid.

Benefiting from sustained growth in per capita disposable income and increasing urbanization rate, the domestic market of textile and apparel continues to grow. In 2008 1-9, sales of clothing and needle textiles increased by about 25.9% over the same period last year. Macroeconomic climate index, wholesale and retail business climate index and consumer confidence index continued to decline, showing signs of macroeconomic slowdown. Affected by macroeconomic slowdown, the growth of per capita disposable income in urban and rural areas will also slow down, and the growth of textile and apparel domestic market will be hard to avoid.

      2009 domestic market growth may fall to 17%-12%

Assuming that the urbanization rate and the natural growth rate of population are conservative, the growth of disposable income of residents in the first 3 quarters of 2008 will approximately replace the growth rate of disposable income of residents in 2008, and analyze the impact of macroeconomic slowdown on the growth of domestic textile apparel demand in 2009.

Referring to the urbanization rate of 44.9% in 2007 and the rate of urbanization increasing by 1 percentage points per year in 2000-2007 Years, the urbanization rate in 2010 will exceed the goal of "11th Five-Year" plan 47%, assuming that the urbanization rate is 2008-2010, the urbanization rate is 46%, 46.5% and 47% respectively.

Referring to the natural growth rate of population in 2007, 5.17%. In the past 2000-2007 Years, the natural growth rate of the population has decreased by 0.34 thousandths per year, assuming that the natural growth rate of the 2008-2010 year population is 4.5%. 4%. 3.5%.

Referring to the growth rate of disposable income of residents in the first 3 quarters of 2008, the growth of disposable income of residents in the first 3 quarters of 2008 will replace the growth rate of disposable income of residents in 2008. It is assumed that the growth of per capita income of urban and rural residents in 2008 is 14.68% and 19.57% respectively.

Referring to the change range of per capita disposable income in urban and rural areas in 2007 and 2000-2008, we assume that the growth rate of per capita income in urban and rural areas in 2009 is 15%-5%.

Referring to the 2007 limit Clothing shoes and hats The proportion of clothing and home textiles in wholesale and retail sales of needles and textiles (about 72.16% of garments and 27.84% of home textiles), is expected in 2009 under neutral conditions. Textile apparel The domestic market growth rate may drop to 17%-12%.

Editor: vivi