Hebei Cotton Planting Proceeds For The First Time Negative Growth
In the middle of October 2008, the cotton market has been very cold. Hou Qin, a big cotton grower in Chengpeng village, Chengguan Town, Chengan County, told the author that cotton merchants began to buy new cotton in October, and cotton growers began to sell them in large quantities. Cotton was sold out in early December, but in 2008, when the new cotton was listed, the acquisition company had been a sporadic acquisition, and the purchase price fell all the way, and now no 4.2 yuan per kilogram of seed cotton has been accepted. Many cotton is still in the hands of cotton growers.
Affected by the high yield of cotton seed in 2007, the sown area of cotton in Hebei province reached 10 million 350 thousand mu in 2008, an increase of 150 thousand mu over the previous year. According to the provincial price and cost investigation and Supervision Bureau, 117 farmers surveyed in 5 cotton producing cities in Handan, Xingtai, Hengshui, Cangzhou and Shijiazhuang in Hebei province showed that in 2008, the average yield of lint cotton in Hebei province was 80.10 kg (214.5 kg), an increase of 3.6% over the previous year.
The total cost of cotton growers is 1040.90 yuan (including material cost, land cost and labor cost), an increase of 15.91% over the previous year. Since the cost of planting has risen sharply and the purchasing price has continued to decline, the average price of seed cotton is 5.2 yuan / kg to 4.2 yuan / kg, and the average cotton price is 509.01 yuan /50 kg, down 24% from the same period last year. The historical profit of planting profit is negative, and net profit of Mu is minus 14 yuan, which is 482 yuan lower than that of 468 yuan last year.
"My family's 28 Mu cotton has a high degree of maturity and a whiter and shiny white color, with an average seed weight of 250 kg per mu. Both quality and output are better than those in 2007. Originally thought that in 2008 cotton can increase more revenue, I did not expect the cotton purchase price fell so much that no one is willing to accept. Hou Qin said that when the cotton market was launched in 2007, the three major cotton spinning groups in the county were rushing to buy it. Less than two months later, 30 mu of cotton in his family were sold out, and the net income was 30 thousand yuan (excluding land cost and part labor cost).
When the price of cotton was just opened in October 2008, the price was very high. Everyone was very happy, but most of the cotton was not picked at that time. When the cotton was picked up a lot, the price also fell, and the enterprises did not receive much. It's going to be new year's day. When he's waiting for money, he has to lose his money and sell more than 7000 kilograms of seed cotton.
According to the provincial price and cost investigation and Supervision Bureau, the survey of two cotton producing counties in Weixian County and Cheng an in Hebei province showed that in 2008, cotton prices in Hebei province were going up and down, and all the way down.
At the end of October, farmers sold seed cotton between 5 and 5.4 yuan per kilogram, a drop of 0.8 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the scale, a decrease of 13.3%, a decrease of 1.2 to 1.4 yuan per kilogram compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 20% or so. At present, the purchase price of cotton in two counties is around 4.2 yuan per kilogram, which is 2.2 yuan lower than that in the same period of 2007.
According to the analysis of the industry, according to the planting cost and market situation in 2007, many cotton growers thought that the seed cotton price in 2008 would be 6.8 yuan to 7 yuan per kilogram. However, due to the downturn in the downstream textile industry, 07/08 cotton has been seriously unsalable for the year. In the year of 08/09, the price trend of "going higher and lower" and falling all the way also caused cotton merchants to pay more and compensate more, but less.
Due to the lack of price support from cotton by-products (cottonseed and cotton lint), many cotton growers are expected to decline, but they believe that the purchase price of a kilogram is at least 5.6 yuan in the year. But with the further downturn of the cotton market prices, some cotton farmers have to accept lower prices now.
Figures from the China cotton information network show that as of the end of August 2008, there were still 690 thousand tons of cotton business inventories in the whole country (equivalent to the cotton output of Hebei Province in one year), which has been depleted in the same period in previous years. From the perspective of Hebei Province, the overall situation of the textile industry has worsened since 2008, the growth rate has slowed down, the profitability of the main industry has dropped significantly, the amount of corporate losses has increased significantly, and the number of enterprises stopping production and semi stop production has been increasing. Since 2007, 61 enterprises have been shut down (10 of them have been closed, and 51 have been closed down).
In the second half of 2008, the impact of the financial crisis on the consumer market in developed countries such as Europe and the United States has directly affected the cotton consumption of major textile exporters including China. The international and domestic cotton prices can not be supported by the downstream market, and the market downturn will continue.
According to experts, cotton should be the national strategic material, and the government should rationally determine the minimum purchase price of cotton according to factors such as planting cost, reference to international cotton price, grain and cotton price ratio and market demand. In order to give full play to the guiding role of price signals, the minimum purchase price or target price policy of cotton should be announced as early as possible so that cotton farmers can be prepared. At the same time, we should treat cotton as a comprehensive subsidy to increase the total amount of agricultural products.
Editor: vivi
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