The Financial Crisis In February Made The Export Market Still Very Weak.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on 11 may show that China's import and export data both declined in February. Experts believe that this group of data is in line with market expectations, and the future export decline may also accelerate. This year, our foreign demand is facing greater pressure.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in February was 124 billion 948 million US dollars, down 24.9% from the same period last year. Of which, exports amounted to 64 billion 895 million US dollars, down by 25.7%; imports of US $60 billion 54 million, down by 24.1%; and trade surplus of US $4 billion 841 million. This is a negative growth in China's foreign trade for four consecutive months, and a trade surplus of nearly 40 billion US dollars in January. The trade surplus in February also dropped by 9. The export of some labor-intensive products is relatively small.

"This global recession is much more serious than the 1998 Asian financial crisis. It is hard to say which country can outshine others. China's external demand, especially export pressure, will be great this year. On the one hand, the global economic recession has led to a sharp contraction in demand; on the other hand, the current global credit crunch has led to some overseas orders with rigid demand not supported by trade financing, and also affected China's exports.

Wen Bin, senior analyst at Bank of China International Finance Research Institute, said that since November last year, China's imports and exports have been negative growth for the 4 consecutive month. However, this year's trade surplus is expected to decline considerably compared with last year.

Xing Weiwei, a macroeconomic analyst at CIC, believes that the decline in exports and imports in February is in line with market expectations, and that the decline in exports in the future may accelerate, with exports falling by thirty or forty as Japan's. The decline in imports may be more likely to continue after two months, which is mainly driven by the increase in domestic demand.

Liu Nenghua, a researcher at the development division of the Bank of communications, said: "in the case of the continued deterioration of the US economy, the deep recession of the European economy, and the impact of the crisis in the emerging market economies, the space for further exploration is still on the decline. The import will stabilize with the promotion of the domestic stimulus measures, and the domestic economy will recover further and recover. Under the trend of "scissors difference" in the development of import and export, the trade surplus will further narrow, and the possibility of deficit in the two quarter will not be ruled out.

Standard Chartered Bank economist Li Wei said that from the data, the financial crisis made the export market still very weak. Although import data have improved, part of it is due to the Spring Festival factor, and the import in January accumulated to February.

He also stressed that the growth of iron ore and copper in imported products has rebounded, but this does not indicate a rebound in domestic demand. Some imports may be a supplement to domestic production. In addition, the two products are highly speculative, and domestic and international markets are facing a price upside down phenomenon, so some imports may be speculative factors.

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun