April PTA Spot Market Review And Outlook For May 6Th
1. April PTA spot
Quotation
review
As you can see from the chart, the spot price of PTA in April
Quotation
The overall level is higher than last month.
PTA spot in April is within a month.
market
The overall fluctuation of prices is not very large. It is at a high level and basically belongs to the state of "hilly form - middle high, low at both ends".
Spot price rose from 8125 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month to the highest point of 8265 yuan / ton this month, up to 140 yuan / ton, and the lowest spot spot in the month is 8075 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The difference between the highest and the lowest is 190 yuan / ton, while the spot price at the end of the month is slightly lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the monthly decrease is 50 yuan / ton.
Compared with the same period last month, there were two small peaks in April. The first was in early April, and 8265 yuan / ton in April increased by 284 yuan / ton compared with 7981 yuan / ton in March, or 3.6%; second peak was at the end of the month, and 8225 yuan / ton in April rose 325 yuan / ton compared with 7900 yuan / ton in March, or 4.1%.
According to data from a domestic manufacturer, the contract price in April was 8250 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with 8150 yuan / ton of contract settlement price in March.
The following is spot on April. Quotation Concrete review: First week, PTA spot Quotation Following the end of last month, it continued to advance slightly in early April. Goods in stock Quotation The atmosphere has obviously improved, and the buying atmosphere is also gradually strong. Therefore, in the beginning of the month, the price of the merchants increased to about 8150 yuan / ton, and the turnover increased significantly. The specific deal was PTA, the 8120 yuan / ton price of Zhejiang's single thousand tons of Korean products, and Jiangsu's 8150 yuan per ton spot. Sinopec April PTA contract listing price of 8200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last month's listing price. BP Zhuhai April PTA listing price was 8300 yuan / ton, the price rose 100 yuan / ton from last month. The reason why the PTA market remains stable is that the stock of downstream polyester factories is still too large. It still takes a certain time to consume inventory. Due to the arrival of the peak season, there is still hope for the latter. outer disc market Market driven by the rise of crude oil, the beginning of the month market The price rose sharply, and the seller estimated that the future market rally would be reluctant to sell and offer less. In the first week, the Taiwan shipping quote rose by US $10 / ton to US $985 to US $990 / ton, and the paction price was generally carried out near 975-980 US dollars / ton. market Prices rose to near $945 / ton, imports market The price is stable at CFR China's main port 972 - 973 US dollars / ton. Second weeks, just before the advent of the traditional Ching Ming Festival, the spot market took the month's highest point this week. The rise in crude oil prices, driven by cost support and the steady progress of the market, resulted in a rise of 150 yuan / ton to 8300 yuan / ton during the week. At such a high price, the buyer was cautious, and the desire to buy was not strong enough, and the paction was limited. Upstream raw material The market price of PX has dropped unexpectedly, which has brought a certain degree of blow to the rise of PTA spot price. Therefore, spot price has not been rising but a slight concussion. The price of the external market has risen sharply as the price of the internal market has risen. The price of the goods on the market has risen by 30 US dollars per ton to 1000 US dollars per ton in a week. The confidence of the market participants is hard to avoid at a high price, so the paction is limited, and the buyer has the mentality of lowering the price. The rise of Korean cargo prices is not too obvious, basically stable at 980 to 985 U.S. dollars / ton, the volume is obvious, once a single 1000 tons of bonded goods were traded in Jiangsu area, the paction was delivered at 1000 U.S. dollars / ton. The import market rose by 13 US dollars / ton in a week to CFR China's main port 993 - 996 US dollars / ton. In the third week and third months of this month, the spot market did not continue to rise, but began to decline after the stabilization. The spot market holder's offer remained basically at 8250-8300 yuan / ton. The buyer was somewhat powerless in the face of high price, and the desire for buying gradually weakened. The market atmosphere was light and the market was limited. Until mid - this month, the market prices began to decline, the impact of the continuous decline of upstream crude oil, cost support weakened, and downstream polyester production and sales as a whole, the demand is increasing, so the decline is limited, spot RMB price from 8250 - 8290 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton to 8175 - 8240 U.S. dollars / ton. Far East petrochemical PTA April listing price of 8200 yuan / ton. The external market market fluctuated slightly under the influence of high and volatile crude oil. The import market fluctuated slightly from CFR 993 to 996 US dollars / ton in 4 yuan / ton to 997 US dollars / ton. The quoted price of Korean cargo was basically maintained at 980 US dollars / ton, and there was no ideal follow up in the market atmosphere. The Taiwan cargo note continued to maintain a high level of volatility at around us $1005 / ton. Four weeks, dragged down by Goldman Sachs events and strong US dollar, crude oil prices plummeted and stock index fell. The impact on all commodities in the country is relatively large, and PTA is no exception. The PTA spot market is dominated by weakness in a week, with the largest weekly price drop of spot price reaching 125 yuan / ton. Some holders of the goods are lucky, the offer continues to remain unchanged, and there is little market enquiry and almost no record of pactions. Upper reaches raw material The suppression of PTA has brought about a negative effect on the rise of the market. However, the demand for downstream polyester has not been weakened. Demand is gradually rising to control the decline of PTA. Therefore, the spot price of PTA remains a stalemate. Near the end of the month, the settlement price and the next month's contract price were promulgated. In April, the PTA settlement price was 8350, the five month contract price was 8500, the Yisheng petrochemical PTA settlement price was 8350, and the May contract price was 8400. Under the influence of the external market, there has also been a mixed view. The price of Taiwan cargo has risen slightly by 5 US dollars to 1010 US dollars per ton. The emergence of such a high price is undoubtedly a blow to downstream manufacturers. The buyers in the lower reaches can only keep a distance from them. South Korean shipping negotiated price decline of US $5 / ton to 965 - 970 US dollars / ton, with limited market turnover. The import market is only a slight change. CFR China's main port slipped 2 US dollars to 995 US dollars per ton. SK energy in late May, the delivery price of PTA cargo from CFR China to US $1045 / ton rose to CFR US $1050 / ton, but there was no buyer. In June, the goods were delivered to US $1058 / tonnes of goods originating in Asia, but nothing was heard. paction 。 Fifth weeks, holidays approaching, the spot market began to fade, the spot market began to decline in a straight line, within a week, the market price fell 150 yuan / ton, from 8225 yuan / ton to 8075 yuan / ton. In this week, the weakening of crude oil price shocks weakened the cost support for PTA, and because of the decline of the stock market and the decline of futures, the spot price of PTA dropped sharply. However, due to the approaching of the holidays and the irregular rebound of crude oil, the PTA's limited space was limited until the end of this month, the market began to stabilize. The external market continued to be weak, and Taiwan's products offer declined by US $10 / ton to US $995 / ton. The decline in prices caused the downward trend of downstream buyers, so the market atmosphere continued to be weak, with a strong wait-and-see mentality and few pactions. The price of Korean cargo continued to slide, falling from $20 / ton to $960 / ton from 980 US dollars / ton earlier this month. The import market declined slightly, dropping from US $995 / ton in CFR China to US $6 / ton to US $989 / ton. According to the quotation from the outside market, 5 months later, the Asian origin shipment arrived at HK $1060 / ton, and the price for delivery to Hong Kong in June was $1070 / ton.
Two, industry chain analysis
1. upstream raw material Market Review In April as a direct PTA. raw material The overall market price of PX is on the rise. From the chart below, we can see that the Asian market price has a slight twists and turns in January, but the overall market is rising. The Asian market price has risen to 1041 US dollars / ton from the beginning of the month of FOB in South Korea to US $1041 / ton at the beginning of the month, rising 34 US dollars / ton, rising by 3.4% in the month, and 1025 US dollars / ton in the beginning of CFR in Taiwan. This month, the Asian market price is the highest price at the end of the month FOB Korea 1054 U.S. dollars / ton, CFR Taiwan 1072 US dollars / ton, this market price has become the highest peak since this year. raw material The price is supported by the downstream demand. The lowest price in this month is FOB Korea $1007 / ton at the beginning of the month, CFR Taiwan 1025 US dollars / ton, the gap between the highest and the lowest price is as high as 47 US dollars / ton.
The following is a detailed review of the PX market for upstream raw materials this month: The first week, as crude oil was stronger by the US dollar and investor confidence boosted the recovery of economic recovery, the cost support of PX increased gradually, so the market price of PX rose slightly, the rise was not obvious, the Asian market prices rose by 3 US dollars / tons to FOB Korea 1010 US dollars / tonnes, and CFR Taiwan 1028 US dollars / tonnes. Import market prices are basically stable CFR China 1022 - 1023 US $/ ton. The US market continued to remain stable in the FOB Gulf of America 990 - 995 US dollars / ton, and the European market remained at FOB 1020 to 1024 dollars / ton a week in Rotterdam. In the second week, crude oil prices rose sharply this week amid the Fed's continued easing of monetary policy and investor concerns over the Greek debt crisis. Crude oil futures rose, the US dollar fell, crude oil prices rose for the six consecutive day, the first time to break through the peak of 87 US dollars, although the US dollar is also rising to pressure on crude oil, but the growth rate of crude oil demand is expected to decline and the US crude oil inventory data is expected to rise for tenth consecutive weeks. The sustained support of crude oil prices has supported the rise of PX's market price. Therefore, the market price of PX is on a rising trend. The PX Asian market has risen from FOB Korea 1007 US dollars / ton to 1047 US dollars / ton, rising to 40 US dollars / ton, and CFR Taiwan 1025 US dollars / ton to 1057 US dollars / ton, up 32 US dollars / ton. However, with the decline of upstream raw material naphtha market prices, the cost support for PX has weakened, but demand is still decreasing. Then the market price of PX has declined slightly. Third weeks, in the third week of this month, crude oil prices are subject to market forecast weekly inventory reports will show that crude oil inventories have increased for eleventh weeks. The increase in crude oil inventories is undoubtedly a blow to crude oil prices. Oil prices have plummeted to 83 US dollars. The market price of upstream raw materials heterogeneous MX has weakened in this week, and naphtha market prices have dropped 6 US dollars to CFR Japan 745 to 750 US dollars / ton. Affected by the continuing decline in upstream raw materials, PX market prices continued to decline, and import market prices fell 9 US dollars / ton to CFR China 1046 - 1047 US dollars / ton. Asian market prices fell 10 U.S. dollars / ton to FOB South Korea 1026 US dollars / ton, CFR Taiwan 1044 US dollars / ton. However, the decline of raw materials is only temporary. In this week, raw material prices rebounded after the decline. The price of raw naphtha surged 15 US dollars / ton to CFR Japan 960 to 964 US dollars / ton, which affected Asian market prices by 13 US dollars / ton to FOB South Korea 1025 US dollars / ton, CFR Taiwan 1043 US dollars / ton. Around the 4th week, crude oil prices were affected by Goldman Sachs event during this week, and prices continued to fall. At the same time, the foreign financial market has plummeted and the domestic policies of the real estate industry have been suppressed. The price of crude oil is circling around $84 / barrel this week. The heterogeneous MX and naphtha, as the upstream raw materials of PX, rose slightly after this week, and the market price of raw material heterogeneous MX increased by 30 US dollars / ton to FOB South Korea 930 - 935 US dollars / ton in the fourth week of this month. The market price of naphtha is still rising. The total price of naphtha is up to 7 US dollars / ton to 763 Japanese dollars 763 tons per ton. Under such cost support, the market price of PX is rising mainly, and the Asian market price has risen 10 US dollars / ton to FOB South Korea 1041 US dollars / ton, CFR Taiwan 1059 US dollars / ton. The US market unexpectedly slipped, sliding 15 US dollars / ton to FOB US Gulf 1012 US dollars / ton, and the European market as a whole was mainly stable, and stabilized at FOB Rotterdam 1043 US dollars / ton. It is said that there is such a deal in this week. A PX shipment arrived in June at a price of $1050 / ton, and the delivery price is CFR, China's 1040 USD / ton. In the fifth week and the end of this month, the market price of PX showed a slight downward trend after the peak of this year. The main reason is that the rise of crude oil prices is suppressed by the influence of economic factors, thus suppressing the support of cost. The decline of crude oil and the setback of the stock market have a certain impact on PX. So in this week, the market price of PX presents a "small hill" shape on the chart. The gap between the top of the mountain and the foot of the mountain is 14 dollars / ton. Besides the influence of upstream raw materials, the demand for downstream polyester is also an important factor in the market price of PX. At present, the good production and marketing of downstream polyester has provided strong support for the market price of PX. The factory operating rate of the downstream PTA is also gradually improving, and the current operating rate has risen to about 91%, so the price of PX's downtrend is limited.
2. increasing demand for polyester Market In April, the polyester market has been at a good level. Polyester manufacturers have good production and marketing, stock pressure is gradually decreasing, the market atmosphere is high and prices continue to rise. In this month, the market of polyester market basically has hundreds of yuan per week, and the market of polyester market has increased a lot. The production and sales of mainstream manufacturers have reached 150 - 200% production and marketing rates. Up to the end of this month, the demand for purchasing tickets has increased, and the demand for polyester has contributed to the growth of market demand, making the supply and demand of polyester Market unbalanced, especially the FDY performance. The arrival of the May 1 holiday has made the purchasing atmosphere of the lower reaches lighter, and the enthusiasm for catching up is not strong. But the overall start-up rate has remained high and demand is still good, so the market atmosphere of polyester market is very low, and prices remain basically stable. In April 14th, an earthquake occurred in Yushu County, Qinghai Province, causing heavy casualties and housing destruction. Spin Products, that is, the increased demand for polyester, which will also promote the lower reaches of polyester stocks consumption, price increases, the device's operating rate has reached an unprecedented high. The four or five month is spring and summer. clothing During the peak season of production, the demand for downstream market is gradually improving. Loom load has risen to 78% of the high level. The increase in demand and the decrease in inventory are a powerful factor in supporting PTA price rise. However, because of the fluctuation of upstream raw materials PX, crude oil and other prices, the demand for manufacturers will be more or less affected. So the recovery process of terminal demand is relatively slow, but the demand in May will further promote consumption of raw materials, so the market will continue to oscillate upward.
Three Spin The export situation of the industry is good. At present, our country's Spin clothing The market is in the new stage of recovery and development, and the pace of development is also accelerating. The pace of layout of foreign enterprises in the domestic market will also accelerate. It is predicted that China will be in the first quarter of this year. clothing Sales growth will exceed 25%. With the export product Price increases, Spin clothing The export volume will rise gradually. Spin The increase of raw material prices and the increase of labor costs will erode the order profit of export oriented enterprises and increase the contract price of export orders. In addition, with the further improvement of the global economy and the improvement of employment, the consumption psychological barriers of consumers in Europe and America have gradually been eliminated, especially in the middle and high-end sectors. clothing Demand recovery is conducive to the improvement of textile and clothing export prices. As the silk town of Wujiang, textile and clothing is one of the pillars of Wujiang's export. In the first quarter, Wujiang's export inspection of textiles and garments was 77 million 800 thousand dollars and 3437 batches, an increase of 8.1% and 7.7% compared to the same period last year. product Exports to the US, EU, Japan, Canada, Australia and other countries and exports to the US amounted to US $35 million 748 thousand, an increase of 8.3% over the same period last year, and exports to Europe reached US $19 million 390 thousand, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year.
Three, device maintenance boost, supply and demand tend to balance. In April, domestic and foreign PTA production equipment once again appeared large-scale parking inspection situation. The overhaul of equipment will reduce the oversupply situation in the short term, and the market for PTA will be boosted. The 344 thousand ton / year PTA plant of Tianjin Petrochemical Company is scheduled to stop maintenance in April 22nd. The planned shutdown time is about 10 days. Tianjin Petrochemical is located in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the two sets of PX plant capacity is 90 thousand tons / year and 300 thousand tons / year device, full load operation. Yisheng Petrochemical is located in Ningbo, which has a capacity of 650 thousand tons / year PTA production line. It is scheduled to run in early April. Shanghai Dongfang Petrochemical Company plans to close the 600 thousand tons / year PTA production line from April 10th, and the shutdown time is about 2 weeks. BP Zhuhai production capacity of 900 thousand tons / year PTA device due to facility failure in March 27th, the accident shutdown maintenance, at the end of March has officially started operation, the current operation is stable. It can maintain full load operation for the 500 thousand ton / year PTA plant. The 700 thousand ton / year PTA installation in Taiwan and China is scheduled to be servicing in April 17th for a period of 15 days or so in April 17th. Luoyang Petrochemical plans to check and repair the 325 thousand tons / year PTA plant in 4 months. The repair time is about half a month. Far East Petrochemical's three PTA production lines are now operating at full load and stable. product All manufacturers execute the contract. Jiangyin Han Bang Petrochemical new capacity of 600 thousand tons / year PTA new plant construction is progressing smoothly, at present, the device is being installed. Ningbo MITSUBISHI chemical production capacity of 600 thousand tons / year PTA device, is currently running steadily. Jialong Petrochemical is located in Fujian Shishi production capacity of 600 thousand tons / year PTA new device, commissioning in April 7th, the current load of about 70%. product The quality is up to date. The device will be fully loaded in May. Xiang Lu petrochemical production capacity of 1 million 650 thousand tons / year PTA plant started normal operation and stability. product Full implementation of contract sales. The 650 thousand ton PTA plant at FCFC, Taiwan, is scheduled to stop for two weeks in May. At present, the operating rate of the device is 100%. Ya Dong Petrochemical is located in Shanghai PTA production capacity of 600 thousand tons / year, in April 18th began to plan to stop maintenance, the maintenance period of about 2 weeks. Chongqing Peng Wei petrochemical PTA plant is running smoothly, the plant operating rate is around 90%, and its products are mainly supplied by contract users. At present, production and sales are stable.
Four, outlook for the future The upstream oil market price is at a high level. MX, naphtha market is strong and PTA's high load operation also supports PX's stabilization. The overhaul of the PTA device has led to a balance of supply and demand. The demand for downstream polyester and the continuous warming of textile exports have played a significant role in boosting PTA. The support of these positive factors will prompt PTA's spot market to rise continuously.
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