CPI Will Continue To Moderate In The Two Quarter.

The national development and Reform Commission released the economic performance report 18. It is estimated that the overall level of residents' prices will continue to rise slightly in the two quarter, and the consumer price index will probably increase by 3% in the next two months. The average increase in the first half of this year will be around 2.5%.

Experts predict that China's CPI growth will exceed 3% of the government's work report in the first half of the year.

The rising price of food and housing is the main reason.

According to statistics released recently by Statistics Bureau, China's consumer price CPI increased by 0.2% in April, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year, and the purchasing price of manufactured goods and raw material and fuel power increased by 6.8% and 12% respectively.

Statistics Bureau spokesman Sheng Lai Yun pointed out that the main reason for the rise of CPI is mainly driven by the two main categories of food and housing prices.

In April, food prices rose by 5.9%, pushing CPI up by 1.9 percentage points.

Housing prices rose 4.5%, pushing CPI up 0.7 percentage points, pulling CPI up 2.6 percentage points, accounting for 2.8% of the 93% increase in the same period, and the expansion of CPI price in April is still caused by structural factors, which is a structural price increase rather than a full rise.

The report issued by the NDRC on 18 may point out that in the two quarter, the prices of agricultural products such as fresh vegetables and fresh fruits will drop as the weather improves and the supply increases.

Since May, the prices of vegetables in Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other regions have begun to drop sharply.

The NDRC expects that the new price increase factor will be reduced in the two quarter. However, due to the negative CPI in the same period last year and the higher CPI rate in December (1.9%), the tail factor will continue to increase. It is estimated that the overall level of residents' prices will remain small in the two quarter, and that the residents' consumption price index will increase by about 3% in the first two months and the average increase in the first half of the year will be around 2.5%.

Huatai Securities report pointed out that the food supply will increase with the increase of temperature in May, but the heavy rain will increase the pportation cost. In addition, the price of vegetables will be maintained at a higher level, and pork prices are expected to rebound.

In addition, the price of living class will be affected by the tail factor and will continue to rise.

Overall, CPI's expected growth in May will continue to expand.

In addition, as the European sovereign debt crisis seeks help, the market's attention to the US dollar will soon give way to the euro which has fallen for a long time.

Therefore, commodity price inflation is expected to converge earlier.

This will affect the PPI increase.

It is expected that PPI will continue to rise in May, but the increase will be less than expected.

CPI annual regulatory task is arduous

Several experts interviewed by reporters thought that China's CPI growth may exceed 3% of the government's work report in the beginning of the year, but it will not reach the height of over 8% in 2008.

Hao Daming, a macroeconomic analyst at Galaxy Securities, said that China's CPI rose by 3.4% in the two quarter, which will be around 3.2% in May, and 4.2% in June. After July, the target of controlling within 3% is unlikely to be achieved.

Wei Fengchun, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC, said that for the next price trend, the price of vegetables, fruits and other foods will have a relatively large impact, while oil prices have reached a high level of 86 yuan / barrel for a period of time. CPI will reach a high point in 6 and July, of which it will be 4.2% in June or 4.5% in July.

About 3.5% of the whole year.