The Fund Throws 170 Billion Losses On 30 Trading Days.

Data show that from March 31st to May 13th, in the 30 trading days, stock funds and hybrid funds accumulated a total of 170 billion yuan.

This trend is shifting from passive reduction to active reduction, and the fund has become a booster for market collapse.

Although the position of the fund in the A share market is declining day by day, the market doubt always points to the substantial reduction of the fund, and the fact also gives evidence to the questioner.

Reporters found that the latest calculation of the San Sheng fund research center calculated the location data, from March 31st to May 13th in the 30 trading days, equity funds and hybrid funds accumulated a total of 170 billion yuan market value.

Moreover, the trend of reducing warehouse is shifting from passive reduction to active reduction, and fund managers' distrust of market future is permeated in the industry.

Hindsight boosts the crash.

Whether it's a 1664 point rally or a recent drop in the 3181 point, most fund managers' performance can be described as "hindsight".

The investment strategy based on the fund is often the booster of the market's sharp rise and fall.

Taking this round down as an example, the data of the May 13th position of the Desheng fund research center showed that the average position of the stock fund was 74.77%, while the weighted average position of the partial equity hybrid fund was 68.90%.

In a quarterly statistical data, the average position of equity funds is 86.37%, the average position of mixed funds is 78.01%, roughly 30 trading days, stock funds are reduced by 11.6 percentage points, and mixed funds are reduced by 9.11 percentage points.

At the end of the first quarter, the total net value of the open ended equity fund was 904 billion 400 million yuan, and the total net value of the hybrid fund was 695 billion 400 million yuan. Based on this calculation, the trading area of the two funds reduced the market value to nearly 170 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that, according to the weekly position of the Desheng fund research center, the fund's move to reduce their positions is the result of a continuous setback in the market.

In particular, since May, funds that have been hit hard have begun to slash their holdings of heavily loaded positions, and their average positions have plummeted nearly 5 percentage points.

Among them, before the fund's hot air shares plunged sharply, is regarded as "fortress" pharmaceutical stocks crash plummeting, behind is the shadow of the fund panic selling.

Insiders pointed out that after the market fell, the panic of the fund lighten up, to a certain extent, become an accelerator for the sharp drop in A shares, especially in the stock market held by the fund, which has more negative impact on the index.

However, from another point of view, although the fund sell-off accelerated the decline of A shares, it also quickly squeezed out the bubbles of many stocks, which opened the operating space for the market in the future.

Fund managers are uneasy.

There are indications that the selling of 170 billion yuan has not yet touched the bottom line of fund managers.

Moreover, compared with the previous passive reduction, the recent selling of fund managers is more initiative.

Desheng Fund Research Center pointed out that from the recent week's changes in fund positions, it was more universal than previous funds, and all kinds of funds gradually reduced their positions, and the intensity of reducing positions was larger.

In addition, compared with the previous passive reduction, the most recent week was the obvious reduction of the fund's initiative.

A number of fund managers interviewed by reporters said that whether or not to continue to reduce positions would depend on macroeconomic changes, policy guidance and the next trend of the market.

The implication is: if negative factors are still in place, lighten up will continue.

From the historical average position level, the fund's position "big bottom" appeared in 2008, the average position was 67%, compared to the current average position of the fund is not far away.

At this delicate moment, are the funds hitting the bottom with the continued reduction of their positions, or will they stop waiting for reinforcements?

The answer is four words: uncertainty.

These four words can be used as the judgment of fund managers for future economic and market direction, and can also express the thoughts of fund managers on the next step.

Public offering private placement at the bottom: the bottom of the value is now at the bottom of the market to be observed.

Has the market fallen to the present?

Almost no one can give a very clear answer that can be confirmed by the market.

However, from the perspective of investment value, at present, some public offering funds and private equity funds believe that the bottom of the valuation or the bottom of valuation has emerged, but the bottom of the market remains to be seen.

New value Luo Weiguang: we are gradually adding positions.

Luo Weiguang, chairman of the new value investment decision Committee, said in a questionnaire survey of the private placement network that the real estate market has been pparent. The European debt crisis also reflects the bad debts and the provision of bank funds caused by the local government financing platform, which is still a new story for the bank performance. The market's response to this negative reaction is still to be observed for some time.

From the point of view of value, I thought it would be possible to fall to 2800 points. Later, real estate, Greek crisis, and local government debt problems appeared. This is not estimated before, and with these factors, it is normal for the market to drop more than 300 points.

From a value point of view, the following 2600 points are very good medium and long-term investment opportunities.

Luo Weiguang said that the bottom of the value has already come out, and the bottom of the market has not yet come out. However, "we are gradually adding up, because in terms of the value range, it has reached our psychological zone".

Chen Dong, the people's livelihood plus silver policy: how long should we rely on the policy?

Chen Dong, research director of people's livelihood plus silver, and fund manager of people's steady growth fund, told reporters recently that although the recent decline is similar to that of 2008, some safe harbor assets also plummeted, and small and medium-sized stocks fell, but the overall situation was more optimistic than 2008. Overseas, in 2008, it was letting go of Lehman. Now the European Union is actively considering the countermeasures. The domestic side is more timely in restraining the real estate bubble; at the same time, releasing restrictions on private investment will enhance the vitality of the economy.

Chen Dong believes that there will be several bottom, one is the bottom of valuation.

From the valuation point of view, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in 2010 dynamic valuation is 14 times, basically in a reasonable interval position, A shares relative attractiveness further improved.

At present, some companies with better dividend yield have been increased by large shareholders. The two is the bottom of policy.

It is estimated that the policy will be tight and loose, but it is hard to say how long it will take.

Dacheng Yang Jianhua: different strategies in different cycles

Yang Jianhua, a fund manager of Dacheng core dual motive fund, told reporters on Monday that he is now in a stage of "profit growth and valuation decline", making investment more difficult. The key lies not in whether the market is bottomed out but in selecting stocks. "If we find stocks that grow 30%-50% every year in the next few years, we must hold them, because they are scarce varieties."

He believes that investment strategies should be based on the company's cycle characteristics.

He divided the listed companies into several categories: one is pro cyclical.

Mainly investment products, will be affected by structural adjustment, downward trend; one is counter cyclical.

It is mainly consumer goods and medicine, which can be held for a long time.

It includes smart grid, technological innovation, energy saving and emission reduction. But there are not many good companies.

Investment reminder: spacing of batches should not be less than 5%.

Since the market went down in mid April, a lot of retail investors have been coming into the market, but unfortunately, almost all of them have been copied on the hillside.

In this regard, insiders said that retail investors often make radical mistakes and buy a little bit, because the funds are limited, unlike the insurance companies, there is a continuous flow of cash, and the result quickly becomes full warehouse, and then does not stop in time, thus becoming the victim of the big market setbacks.

The source said that the bottom of the market is very difficult to predict, and in batches is a good way to lower the cost. But we should pay attention to two points: first, whether the stocks and funds are worth filling up. It depends on the fundamentals and the market trend. Like this year, it is not a good choice to make up the stock market, but we can consider changing the stock market. Two, we need to add more space. In general, every 5% of the fund can be made up. For individual stocks, in the unstable market like this, we can drop 10% or even more.

Fund company employees purchase millions of large single frequency since buying.

Recently, employees of many fund companies have begun to subscribe to their own new funds.

For example, the Morgan Stanley Huaxin outstanding growth was first launched today, with 2 billion 264 million employees, including 3 million 253 thousand and 100 employees, accounting for 0.14% of the total share of the fund.

Since March this year, the share of self purchase of fund companies has increased significantly in the new fund issue.

Statistics show that there are 35 new funds issued and set up this year, of which 20 have been issued since March.

Of the 20 funds, 11 funds were subscribed by more than one million shares of their own fund companies, accounting for 55%.

Among them, the Huaan round fund, which was launched in April 12th, employs a total of 9 million 24 thousand and 400 subscriptions, creating the highest record of fund companies' subscription to new funds during the year.

In addition, there were 4 fund companies subscribed to over 4 million subscriptions. They were GFA domestic demand growth (AI, net value, information), huitianfu private vitality (AI, net value, information), Cathay Pacific 100 index and 180 value ETF connection fund, and 6 million 541 thousand and 600 employees, 4 million 995 thousand and 100, 4 million 754 thousand and 4 million 56 thousand and 400 subscriptions were made by their own fund employees respectively.

In the 15 funds issued before March, the number of fund subscriptions subscribed by fund companies was less, and even some funds did not appear to be subscribing new funds by their own fund companies.

Data show that in these 15 funds, the fund company employees purchase the most is the southern strategy (love, net value, information), subscription share is 940 thousand and 900.

Fund industry insiders said that when the new fund is not well issued, some fund companies will ask employees to buy, on the one hand, they can support the new fund issue, on the other hand, they can also show confidence in the presence of investors and attract investors to subscribe.

There are also fund company employees told reporters that since the middle of April, the market has dropped sharply, the valuation advantage of A shares has been gradually highlighted. It may be an opportunity for investment, but fund workers can not invest in stocks, so they choose to subscribe funds.

Is it time for the fund to buy the funds?

"China Life (China Life (601628)) this period of time bought about 100 billion yuan, safe is also buying, on our side to buy 2 hundred million.

A few days ago, a fund source said that when the market fell to 2600 points, insurance funds began to buy stocks and funds in a big way, especially in the case of a big drop of more than 5% on Monday.

Many market participants say that the bottom of the value has already appeared and can be considered gradually. But some market participants say that it is better to be cautious.

A number of venture capital funds

The reporter recently exchanged funds with a fund company, the source said, recently, China Life Insurance, China Ping An (601318) and other insurance companies have been buying funds, of which China life is the most generous, and invested nearly 10 billion yuan for "sweeping goods", Ping An bought more, "bought 2 hundred million on our side".

Yesterday's report also pointed out that China Life Insurance Limited by Share Ltd, the dividend and traditional accounts, applied for the index funds of major fund companies on Monday. According to incomplete statistics, the purchase of 500 million yuan in China, 400 million yuan in Bo time, 300 million yuan in Yi Fang and 100 million yuan in Huaan, the total purchase volume of the day was "at least 1 billion 500 million yuan."

In addition, China Pacific Insurance (601601) also purchased a $about 20000000 fund on Monday.

"It has fallen by 20%, and the fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year. The valuation of some companies has been very attractive.

People with fund companies say that insurance institutions have inflow of funds every month and need to be allocated. Now the market position is much larger than the pre safety margin, so the subscription fund is more active.

According to his understanding of the situation, the main reason for the recent increase in venture capital is the fund, and some stocks with low valuation. This reflects the risk that the systemic risk has been released most of the time, but the risk of individual stocks is not completely released, so the fund is chosen to avoid the risk of individual stocks.

"Do not exclude part of the risk capital is Bo rebound, because the cost is low (tens of millions of yuan and above the purchase cost of the fund is 1000 yuan)."

Aforementioned fund people pointed out that a large insurance company is very fond of band operation, and there are several points of return.

As a result, more than a few days ago, the fund restricted the purchase of large quantities, in order to avoid the frequent impact of the fund's net value.

The space is limited.

Is it the right time for individual investors to search the bottom?

In this regard, the industry's views vary.

Good buy fund research center (hereinafter referred to as good buy) believes that the reasons leading to this round of decline are mainly three: first, real estate regulation is expected to rise again, real estate stocks have led down, and led to the decline of related cycle plates; secondly, the external market has dropped, bringing pressure to A shares; third, the market supply pressure has increased.

This week, the two cities lifted 11 billion 370 million shares, which is the third largest lifting of the ban this year. At the same time, ABC and Everbright IPO news also had a negative impact on bank shares.

Good buy thinks that although there is a possibility of further exploration in the market, the rate of decline has been limited.

There are three reasons for this: first, after a continuous adjustment, the risk of large cap stocks has been fully released and the risk of small cap stocks has been partially eliminated; secondly, the macro policy will maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and the number of tool controls will still be the main force in the near future. Third, the large fund companies have generally continued to reduce their positions since the beginning of May. The current position is slightly higher than 70%, while the historical low level is 67%.

Most of the fund companies' positions are at a low level, and the kinetic energy of further killing is relatively limited.

However, this year's top ranking sunshine private source investment manager Ceng Xiaojie is still not optimistic about the index performance.

He said that the uncertainty of falling space depends on the two factors of real estate policy and inflation.

At present, these two factors are still heading for a bad direction, and the situation will be clearer in the fourth quarter.

When he took part in a private placement network survey, he admitted that the current position of his managed private placement product was only around 20%.

GF Fund: the 2500 point or the bottom of the market in the short term

A shares fell sharply on the 17 day, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index both achieved the closing low of nearly 13 months.

According to an analysis report of the recent market, Guangdong Guangdong Fund pointed out that the underlying reason for the ongoing market adjustment is the worries about the global economic growth prospects, the financial and monetary policy difficulties and the adjustment process of China's economic structure.

But in the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index will be around 2500 or so.

On the one hand, the debt crisis in Europe means that the European economic recovery is facing long-term financial pressure. In the next few years, the public debt of developed countries has not yet expanded.

The long-term downturn in the external market means that our export oriented sectors will face continuing pressure.

On the other hand, the domestic traditional industrial sector is facing not only the bottleneck of scale, but also the pressure of "structural adjustment". Energy conservation, emission reduction and consumption reduction will reduce the ROE level of the traditional industrial sector.

Recently, it is concerned about the direction of fiscal and monetary policy.

If we tighten credit, we will first squeeze out private sector investment.

The credit crunch will also have an impact on capacity expansion in key areas.

In addition, real estate regulation is facing a dilemma of supply lag.

The policy to curb investment and speculative demand seems to ease the contradiction between supply and demand, but it also lowers the investment enthusiasm of developers and reduces or decreases supply.

Therefore, GF believes that the lack of growth momentum in the long run is the key reason for the recent decline in the stock market.

But in the short term, if market expectations are properly guided, the Shanghai composite index should be at the bottom of 2500.