Official Of The National Development And Reform Commission: The State Will Crack Down On The Speculation Of Agricultural Products

The relevant head of the National Development and Reform Commission also said at the National Price Directors' Meeting on the 22nd that it is necessary to improve the price information system, grasp the specific conditions of production volume, transaction volume, production cost, circulation link price increase, government reserves, capital flow, inventory changes, etc., find out the abnormal conditions quickly, report them in time, and resolutely prevent and stop the speculation of "hot money".

Since this year, the prices of grain varieties such as japonica rice and corn, agricultural and sideline products such as garlic, vegetables and mung beans, as well as traditional Chinese medicinal materials such as panax notoginseng have increased significantly, which is not only affected by the drought in the southwest region, the continuous low temperature in the central and eastern regions and other adverse weather, but also closely related to a few operators who fabricate and disseminate false information, maliciously hoard and drive up prices.

"There is relatively abundant liquidity in the market now. When the property market cools down and the stock market is depressed, the 'hot money' in the society is easy to focus on agricultural products. Because the supply and demand of domestic agricultural products are in a tight balance at present, agricultural products that can be preserved for a long time are likely to become the target of 'hot money' speculation." Zhou Wangjun said.

Zhou Wangjun also disclosed that, as the competent price department of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission will gradually establish a sound supervision plan for abnormal price fluctuations of various market regulated commodities related to the lives of the people, such as grain, pork, vegetable baskets, etc., on the basis of reporting to the State Council.

The data shows that in March and April, the national vegetable prices rose 18.5% and 24.9% year on year respectively. However, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on the 24th that although the price of garlic, vegetables and other agricultural products has soared recently, the proportion of vegetables in CPI is limited, and its short-term surge has limited impact on the overall CPI index.

The above person in charge stressed that the rise in the price of daily necessities will increase the living expenses of the people to a certain extent, and increase the inflation expectations brought about by abundant liquidity. The price authorities at all levels should strengthen price regulation and supervision, and effectively stabilize inflation expectations.

It is worth noting that since May, with the warmer weather, vegetable prices across the country have generally dropped. Data from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission shows that in the first half of May, the average retail prices of 15 major vegetable varieties, such as cabbage, potato and garlic sprouts, in 36 large and medium-sized cities in each ten day period decreased by 3.51% and 7.96% respectively compared with that in the first ten day period, with the decline increasing day by day.

According to the analysis of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, at present, the impact of abnormal weather changes on vegetable production in the early stage is decreasing, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Later, with the arrival of the peak season of vegetable production and supply in summer, a large number of outdoor vegetables will come into the market one after another, and the price of vegetables is expected to decline further. {page_break}

Nevertheless, the above person in charge stressed that the price adjustment fund should be actively used to support price monitoring, information release, the construction of non-staple food production bases and market systems, and temporary price subsidies should be granted to low-income groups in urban and rural areas.

Zhou Wangjun told the Economic Information Daily that seven provinces, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong, have established a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking price increases with minimum security standards, minimum wage standards and retirement pension standards. The National Development and Reform Commission suggested that provinces and regions should implement this system as soon as possible to ensure that the living standards of low-income groups do not decline due to price increases.

From January to April, consumer prices rose by an average of 2.4%. In this regard, the above person in charge said that at present, the price of vegetables and other food is gradually falling with the rise of temperature. Although there are many factors that affect the price rise in the second half of last year, there is a foundation to achieve an average increase of about 3% in the annual consumer price under the condition that the overall market supply exceeds demand and the government reserves of important commodities are abundant.

The National Development and Reform Commission had predicted that in the second quarter, the general level of residential prices would still maintain a slight rise. The consumer price index in the next two months might increase by about 3%, and the average increase in the first half of the year would be about 2.5%.

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have frequently reported the topic of price, and the two departments have also made clarifications on the price topic that people pay attention to through various channels. Among them, the NDRC recently talked about price three times (May 14, 19, 24), and actively responded to the hot issues that people care about, attracting attention from all walks of life.

Experts from the Bureau of Statistics said the short-term surge of vegetables has limited impact

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year on year in April, of which the food category rose the most. In March and April, the national vegetable prices rose by 18.5% and 24.9% respectively year on year, while those in Beijing rose even more, by 32.7% and 32.6% respectively.

However, from the perspective of CPI alone, the statistical data shows very low. Why is this result? Relevant experts from the National Bureau of Statistics explained that CPI is not the price increase of a single commodity, but an overall indicator, reflecting the price changes of goods and services consumed by more than 1.3 billion people nationwide. And people's feelings about rising prices are often feelings about the change of single commodity prices.

In addition, some goods and services are regular consumption items, and people are more sensitive to price increases. For example, the price of garlic has soared, which is felt by the common people deeply, but it may be ignored that the price of pork is lower than that of the same period last year, and the price of other vegetables has not risen like garlic. Although the increase of vegetables is large, the proportion of vegetables in CPI is limited, and the impact of short-term inflation on the overall CPI index is limited.

As for the problem that some people feel that the cost of living is getting higher and higher, and whether CPI is underestimated, experts from the Bureau of Statistics pointed out that this is the difference in personal affordability. For example, most of the expenditures of low-income families are concentrated on food, water, electricity and other necessities of life. Among the eight categories of goods and services surveyed by CPI, food and housing are leading the increase, so low-income families will feel that the price increases are large and life pressure increases. For high-income people, food expenditure accounts for a small proportion of total expenditure, and the prices of cars, mobile phones, computers, LCD TVs and other products they buy tend to fall, so they are less sensitive to price increases and have stronger affordability.

Generally speaking, ordinary residents focus on commodities and services closely related to daily life, such as "food, clothing, housing, transportation". The scope of CPI survey is more extensive. It is a weighted comprehensive average, which includes both rising and falling varieties. If residents compare the prices of specific rising goods or services with the published overall level of consumer prices, they will feel that CPI is underestimated.

For some netizens who said that vegetable prices were "feverish", CPI data did not reflect the real inflation level. Pang Xiaolin, an expert in price statistics, said that if we compare the CPI published by the state with every commodity we come into contact with when shopping on the street every day, people will often have misunderstandings or delusions, because different people have different feelings about prices, different consumption structure groups have different feelings about prices, and price increases in different regions are different, Everyone feels different about prices. There are many reasons for this difference, and it is also one of the problems that the news media and the Internet have questioned CPI in recent years. {page_break}

The National Development and Reform Commission frequently issues documents on price, emphasizing stabilizing market price

Coincidentally, the National Development and Reform Commission also announced a news on its website on the 24th, which is to convene a national meeting of price directors, deploy to strengthen price regulation and supervision, and stabilize market prices.

The National Development and Reform Commission, when deploying this regulation work, also emphasized that the average consumer price rose by 2.4% from January to April. At present, the price of vegetables and other food is gradually falling back with the temperature rising. Although there are many factors that affect the price rise in the second half of last year, there is a foundation for realizing an average increase of about 3% in the annual consumer price under the condition that the overall market supply exceeds demand and the government reserves of important commodities are sufficient.

The meeting also stressed that price stability concerns the overall economic and social development. The rise in the price of daily necessities will, to some extent, increase the living expenses of the masses and intensify the inflation expectations brought about by abundant liquidity. The meeting required that price authorities at all levels should attach great importance to strengthening price regulation and supervision, and the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations. They should integrate their thinking and understanding into the deployment of the central government, and do a good job in stabilizing prices.

In the previous mid May, the NDRC frequently posted articles on its website to discuss prices——

On May 14, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) website published the Reply of the Head of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to the Press on the Current Price Situation. The relevant responsible person said that after the third quarter, as the tail raising factor gradually disappeared, the year-on-year CPI increase would gradually fall back, and it was "fundamental" to achieve the expected regulatory goals for the whole year.

Three days later, the National Development and Reform Commission again issued a document focusing on prices. The NDRC said in the article "CPI will continue to maintain a moderate upward trend in the second quarter" that the prices of agricultural products (000061) such as fresh vegetables and fruits will fall in the second quarter with better weather and increased supply. Since May, due to the improved weather, vegetable prices in Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other regions have begun to fall sharply. On the 9th of this month, the average wholesale price of 25 kinds of vegetables in Beijing fell by 21% from the beginning of May.

The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission also released a monitoring data on vegetable prices on the 24th. The data showed that on May 19, the average prices of 24 vegetable varieties in the wholesale market of major agricultural products (000061) in China fell 17.88% from the end of April, showing a weekly downward trend. With the arrival of the peak season of vegetable production and supply in summer, a large number of outdoor vegetables will come into the market one after another, and the price of vegetables is expected to decline further. ?

It is said that someone has bid up the price of garlic, vegetables, mung beans and other agricultural and sideline products, as well as traditional Chinese medicine such as panax notoginseng

The National Development and Reform Commission (hereinafter referred to as the NDRC) said that the price of vegetables and other food is gradually falling with the temperature rising. Although the price rise in the second half of last year has many factors affecting the tail lifting of this year, under the condition that the overall supply of the market exceeds the demand and the government reserves of important commodities are abundant, it is fundamental to achieve an average increase of about 3% in the annual consumer price (CPI). ?

According to the press release published on the NDRC website yesterday, the National Price Directors' Meeting was held in Beijing on the 22nd, at which the NDRC made the above statement.

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose by an average of 2.4% in January April and 2.8% in April, approaching the red line of 3% or so set by the government at the beginning of the year.

According to the press release, the purpose of the National Price Directors' Meeting held in Beijing is to require "price authorities at all levels to take precautions, take effective measures, and strive for a stable price environment to maintain steady and rapid economic development and adjust the economic structure".

At the meeting, the National Development and Reform Commission highlighted that since this year, the prices of grain varieties such as japonica rice and corn, agricultural and sideline products such as garlic, vegetables and mung beans, and traditional Chinese medicine such as panax notoginseng have increased significantly, which is not only affected by adverse weather conditions such as drought in the southwest region and continuous low temperature in the central and eastern regions, but also closely related to a few operators fabricating and spreading false information, maliciously hoarding and driving up prices.

Observers pointed out that, as the competent price department, the NDRC's above statement was slightly different from that of some officials of other ministries and commissions before, who previously said that they did not agree with the view of hot money speculating on prices.

"The rise in the price of necessities will, to a certain extent, increase the living expenses of the people and increase the inflation expectations brought about by abundant liquidity." The National Development and Reform Commission said, "Price stability is related to the overall economic and social development." {page_break}

The NDRC deployed a series of actions at the meeting:

1、 We will improve the price information system, grasp the specific conditions of production volume, transaction volume, production cost, circulation link price increase, government reserves, capital flow, inventory changes, and resolutely prevent and stop speculation of "hot money".

2、 We will study and improve the price control measures for grain, pork, sugar, and cotton, and take measures such as information guidance, support for production, production and marketing convergence, reserve handling, organization and transportation, promotion of circulation, and necessary temporary price intervention. We will use the price adjustment fund to support price monitoring, information release, the construction of non-staple food production bases and market systems, and provide temporary price subsidies to low-income groups in urban and rural areas.

3、 As soon as possible, we should study and formulate the definition standards and handling methods for severely cracking down on price violations such as fabricating and spreading price rise information, maliciously hoarding, driving up prices to make huge profits, and colluding with price rises. We will focus on investigating and punishing illegal acts such as fabricating and spreading information about price increases, maliciously hoarding, driving up prices, colluding with each other, manipulating market prices, monopolizing supply of goods, and blocking circulation channels.

According to the introduction of the National Development and Reform Commission on May 24, the National Price Directors' Meeting held in Beijing on May 22 proposed to study and formulate as soon as possible the definition standards and treatment methods for price violations such as cracking down on fabricating and spreading price rise information, maliciously hoarding, driving up prices to make huge profits, and colluding with price rises. We will focus on investigating and punishing illegal acts such as fabricating and spreading information about price increases, maliciously hoarding, driving up prices, colluding with each other, manipulating market prices, monopolizing supply of goods, and blocking circulation channels.

The meeting pointed out that since this year, the prices of grain varieties such as japonica rice and corn, agricultural and sideline products such as garlic, vegetables and mung beans, as well as traditional Chinese medicine such as panax notoginseng, have risen significantly, which is not only affected by adverse weather conditions such as drought in the southwest region and continuous low temperature in the central and eastern regions, but also closely related to a few operators fabricating and spreading false information, maliciously hoarding and driving up prices.

The meeting stressed that price authorities at all levels should resolutely prevent and stop "hot money" speculation. The meeting required all regions to carefully study and improve the price control measures for grain, pork, sugar and cotton, and actively adopt information guidance, support production, production and marketing convergence, reserve handling, organization and transportation, promotion of circulation, and necessary temporary price intervention to effectively guarantee supply and stabilize prices; We will actively use the price adjustment fund to support price monitoring, information release, the construction of non-staple food production bases and market systems, and provide temporary price subsidies to low-income groups in urban and rural areas.

The meeting also required all localities to release the true information of commodity production, supply, demand and price changes in a timely and proactive manner, clarify false rumors and stop the spread of false information; The progress of the competent price departments in cracking down on price violations is often released through the media, and a number of major price violations are publicly exposed. {page_break}

A report released by the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday said that with the arrival of the peak season for vegetable production and supply in summer, a large number of vegetables will come into the market one after another, and the price of vegetables is expected to decline further. ?

The report shows that since May, with the warmer weather, vegetable prices across the country have generally dropped. On May 19, the average prices of 24 vegetable varieties, such as Chinese cabbage, potato and green pepper, in the wholesale market of major agricultural products (000061) nationwide dropped 17.88% from the end of April, showing a weekly downward trend. In the first three weeks of May, the wholesale prices of vegetables in each week decreased by 4.47%, 11.11% and 3.29% respectively compared with last week. ?

As the price of vegetables in the wholesale market continues to fall, so does the price in the retail market. The monitoring data shows that the average retail prices of 15 major vegetable varieties, such as Chinese cabbage, potato and garlic sprouts, in 36 large and medium-sized cities in each ten days of May decreased by 3.51% and 7.96%, respectively, compared with the previous ten days, and the decline has expanded day by day. ?

According to the analysis of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, in April, the price of vegetables in various regions increased significantly, mainly due to the impact of abnormal weather changes in China this year, the output decreased compared with previous years, and the market supply was relatively tight. With the arrival of the peak season of vegetable production and supply in summer, a large number of outdoor vegetables will come into the market one after another, and the price of vegetables is expected to decline further. ?

Since this year, China's agricultural products (000061) have suffered great losses due to drought in the southwest, snow disaster in the north and heavy rain in the south. After the soaring of garlic, green beans, etc., in addition to the Shandong market, corn prices across the country have also increased significantly. ?

According to the statistics of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first quarter of this year, the average purchase price of rice, wheat and corn in China's main production areas increased by 12.6% over the same period last year, and it is predicted that the grain price in the domestic market will continue to rise slightly in the second quarter. ?

Therefore, some experts said that there is still the possibility of further increase in food prices in the future, which may also be one of the reasons for the recent continuous increase in the agricultural sector. ?

In this regard, investors are concerned about the impact of rising food prices on relevant listed companies. ?{page_break}

Transferable risks of feed listed companies

Experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that the year-on-year increase of China's grain production prices in 2010 is likely to exceed 10%. Previously, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had only expected that this would exceed 5%. The rise in grain prices will drive up the prices of pork and other agricultural products, indirectly pushing up the CPI index of the whole year. ?

Zhu Wenwen, Secretary of ST Kandar (000048), said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the rise in grain prices had a great impact on them, especially the rise in corn prices. As a result, the cost will rise and the feed price will only rise. But for the breeding industry, there is no way to digest this part of the cost. ?

At present, the prices of agricultural products are rising as a whole. The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the price changes of major agricultural products in 200 major producing counties in late April. Except for the decline in the price of livestock and poultry products, other varieties have increased to varying degrees. According to the data, grain agricultural products rose across the board, with corn leading the way by 1.54%, and indica and japonica rice by more than 1%. ?

According to the insiders, the increase in the price of corn is mainly due to the decrease in grain stocks of local enterprises and farmers, the decline in market flow, the rise in the price of live pigs and meat birds, the recovery of the breeding industry, the booming market demand and other impacts, resulting in the increase in the purchase and sale price of corn market. ?

Abnormal climate has a significant impact on food prices. Since the beginning of autumn last year, Southwest China, including Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, has suffered from a rare drought in history. At present, millions of hectares of crops have been cut off. According to the estimation of Lianhe Securities, if the grain output in the drought affected areas is reduced by 10%, the national grain output is expected to be reduced by about 1.8%. ?

Due to the rising grain price, the cost of feed listed companies such as ST Kangdar (000048), New Hope (000876) and Tongwei Shares (600438) has increased. Under the pressure of increased cost, the company has relatively raised the ex factory price of feed. ?

Yu Qingqing, an analyst with Xiangcai Securities, told the reporter that listed feed companies have the ability to pass on costs to the downstream. Although the price of raw materials increases, the price of their products will also increase, thus passing on all or part of the cost increases. The feed industry is originally a low gross profit industry, which is driven by sales volume. At present, the industry values the benefits of capacity expansion. ?

"Feed processing companies such as Nu Skin Hope and Tongwei Co., Ltd., which are in the upstream, have benefited in essence," Yu Qingqing said. {page_break}?

The seed industry benefits the most

Some experts said that with the rise of grain prices, upstream industries such as seeds, pesticides and agricultural machinery benefited the most, followed by planting and animal husbandry, and downstream agricultural product processing industries suffered from many enemies and benefited the least. The risks and benefits of agricultural product processing industry are uncertain. ?

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 11th, the consumer price of residents in April rose 2.8% year on year, of which the food price rose 5.9%, ranking the first among the eight categories of commodity prices. This alone drove the CPI up 1.9 percentage points. ?

It is understood that grain prices account for 3% of CPI, and rising grain prices are considered to be an important driver of CPI this year. More importantly, because food prices play a fundamental role, the prices of many agricultural products are adjusted according to food prices. Once food prices rise, the prices of many other agricultural products will rise. ?

Yu Qingqing told reporters that the increase in the price of agricultural products is generally more beneficial to the seed industry, because the seed industry is a relatively industrialized sub industry, and seed companies can actually benefit from the production and sales of seeds. ?

In addition, seed companies, whose seed demand comes from the sown area, will benefit from the long-term stable growth of their sown area with rising grain prices, but the short-term benefits will also be limited. Seed enterprises in the upstream of agricultural products benefited from the rise in the prices of downstream agricultural products, such as Fengle Seed Industry (000713), Denghai Seed Industry (002041), Wanxiang Denong (600371), and Dunhuang Seed Industry (600354). ?

Some analysts also told reporters that the "inflation+policy" is an important basis to support agricultural stocks to enjoy valuation premium. He currently adheres to the view of "seed led agriculture" proposed in the 2010 annual strategy. At the same time, it is believed that the state will raise the minimum purchase price of cattle rice in 2010, which is expected to boost the investment enthusiasm of relevant sectors of the grain industry in the secondary market, and seed, planting and other sub industries may become the main targets. ?

The analyst believed that the scale of subsidies for improved seeds was expanded, and the country proposed to encourage seed industry integration and promote the industrialization of genetically modified seeds from the policy level for the first time. In view of the favorable policies and the increasingly strengthened inflation expectations, the agricultural industry was given a "buy" rating. Benefiting from the rising food prices and the subsidy policy for improved varieties, the seed industry has seen an obvious recovery in performance. Therefore, the seed industry is the first in the agricultural sector. Among the seed companies, they are more optimistic about the listed companies with R&D advantages and the main varieties in the high-speed promotion period. It is suggested to focus on Denghai Seed Industry. ?

It is understood that Shandong Denghai Seed Industry Co., Ltd. is an agricultural high-tech listed enterprise founded by famous corn breeding and cultivation expert Li Denghai, ranking the third in the top 50 seed industry in China. At present, Xianyu 335 cultivated by the company has entered a mature period. In 2008, Xianyu 335 contributed 215 million yuan of sales to Denghai Seed Industry, accounting for 51.6% of its total operating revenue of 417 million yuan. In 2009, it contributed 318.4 million yuan, accounting for 54.99% of its total operating revenue. ?

According to the analysis report of Shenyin Wanguo, the reasonable share price of the company is 56.4 yuan, and given a target price of 55 yuan, there is still 32% room for the stock price to rise. {page_break}

Since this year, the successive natural disasters in China include the drought in the five southwestern provinces, the Yushu earthquake in Qinghai, wind disasters, snowstorm attacks, floods caused by torrential rains in the south, and other factors that have constantly exacerbated the rise in food and food prices. How will the listed companies in the brewing industry, which use grain as raw materials, be affected? Will the price rise of raw materials be transmitted to listed companies in the liquor industry? Will the price of alcohol products rise with the price of raw materials? ?

From the performance of the secondary market, yesterday, the listed companies in the brewing industry were all in the red. Chongqing Beer (600132), Laobaigan Liquor (600559), Jiugui Liquor (000799) and other stocks showed outstanding performance, leading the market up. ?

According to the analysis of the insiders, the rising grain price will inevitably increase the cost of listed brewing companies, but for beer companies entering the peak sales season, the large increase in sales performance will be able to well absorb the pressure of rising costs; For liquor enterprises, the rising cost of raw materials will last until the end of the year, and the resulting pressure also needs a process to show, which may trigger a new round of "price rise tide" of medium and high-end liquor by the end of the year. ?

There will be no new round of "price rise" in the short term

Zhou Siran, a food industry researcher of CIC Consulting, pointed out in an interview with the Securities Daily that in the wine industry with grain as raw material, the rise in the price of grain and other raw materials will certainly bring cost increases to listed companies in the wine industry, but this does not necessarily lead to collective price increases in the industry. ?

As far as beer enterprises are concerned, Mu Feng, partner of the FMCG Marketing Center of Yingdao Consulting, pointed out to the reporter of Securities Daily that beer is entering a peak sales period at present, and domestic beer basically follows the middle and low-end market route. Consumers are more sensitive to prices, and sales are greatly affected by prices, so beer prices will not rise accordingly. Therefore, beer listed companies can internalize the impact of rising costs of raw materials. ?

Mu Feng believes that for liquor enterprises, there will not be a new round of price rise in the short term, but in the medium and long term, with the arrival of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, the price increase of medium and high-end liquor is expected to increase. ?

Mu Feng further pointed out that the reason why the price of white wine industry will not rise in the short term is that the sales peak season of white wine has not yet arrived; Second, the price increase of some high-end liquors at the beginning of the year is still being digested and even reduced; Third, due to the brewing cycle of liquor, there is no impact on liquor currently on sale. ?

Zhou Siran also believed that there should be no new round of liquor price increase in the short term. Zhou Siran pointed out that although under the conditions of tax system adjustment, rectification of liquor driving, and rising grain prices, the prices of both first-line and second-line liquors have increased one after another, and the price increase has not affected their consumption, many manufacturers will have a buffer period after a series of price competition, during which, They should focus on how to reduce costs by improving production technology, rather than simply raising prices to cope with rising costs. ?

The price increase of high-end liquor faces bottlenecks, and the price increase space of mid-range liquor increases

Mu Feng believes that the price of medium and high-grade liquor may rise by the end of the year. Because this increase in grain prices is mainly due to the severe weather in the main agricultural and sideline products producing areas, resulting in insufficient supply and rising prices; In addition, the government raised the purchase price of grain. In this way, before the end of the year, this trend of price rise will not recede, and the rising cost of liquor will gradually appear; In addition, with the arrival of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, price increases are expected to increase. ?

Although there is indeed a bottleneck in the price increase of high-end liquor, there is still room for price increase of high-end liquor under the continuous innovation of concept, quality, service and promotion. Mu Feng pointed out that the price increase of Maotai at the beginning of the year did not achieve the expected sales effect, which can be seen that the price increase of high-end liquor has shown some problems: first, it deviated from the point of profit maximization under the balanced price and market; Second, the single form and variety of high-end liquor is also a major problem. Just imagine that if the same product grows without any selling points or reasons, consumers will definitely have questions. ?

Zhou Siran believed that Moutai failed to achieve the expected results at the beginning of this year for many reasons, which could not be attributed to the fault of the price rise of Moutai. At the same time, from the perspective of the price increase degree of Moutai, the price increase space for high-end liquor is indeed very limited, but it does not mean that it has already faced a bottleneck. In fact, the rise in the price of high-end liquor has no impact on ordinary audiences. In the gift market, meetings and business occasions, they only value the brand, but are not so sensitive to the price. Of course, in the long run, blindly increasing the price is not conducive to the healthy development of high-end liquor. ?

Zhou Siran pointed out that after wave after wave of price increases, the price increase space of high-end liquor is relatively limited. However, while the price of high-end liquor continues to rise, the gap between high-end liquor and mid end liquor is gradually widened, leaving a certain price increase space for mid end liquor. ?{page_break}

Secretary of Yanjing Beer (000729): At present, the price in Beijing market will not change

"Eating garlic is more expensive than eating meat. It's better to plant garlic at home" is a popular saying nowadays. When entering the vegetable market, the vegetables you often eat on weekdays are all three or five yuan per kilogram, and the mung beans have soared to 10 yuan per kilogram. In the first half of the year, the price of agricultural and sideline products in China kept rising all the way, and people's daily food expenditure doubled. What impact does the price rise of agricultural products (000061) have on relevant listed companies? ?

The reporter interviewed researcher Wei of Southwest Securities (600369), who believed that listed companies with agricultural products as their main raw materials might suffer. For listed companies that use agricultural products as their main raw materials, their performance may be negatively affected due to the rising prices and costs of raw materials, especially for cotton textile listed companies. For the listed companies whose main business is the processing of agricultural products, the transfer of their rising costs should also be considered. On the one hand, the rise in the price of raw materials will lead to a rise in costs, which is a negative impact; On the other hand, the price of its products may also increase, thus transferring all or part of the cost increase. ?

Are all enterprises using agricultural products as raw materials affected? In the summer, the demand for beer is increasing day by day, and whether the price of beer will fluctuate has become a concern. Liu Xiangyu, the secretary of the board of directors of Yanjing Beer, was interviewed by the reporter, who said that the price of beer in Beijing market will not change at present. The main raw material of beer is beer barley, which is a kind of non edible agricultural product and a specialized crop. In addition, the domestic and international markets have sufficient supply of goods. The raw materials of Yanjing Beer are mainly imported from abroad. The price of beer barley in the international market has always been stable, and the price fluctuation of domestic agricultural products has little impact on Yanjing Beer. Liu Xiangyu introduced that at present, China's beer price is still at a low level, and it will be an inevitable trend to return to a reasonable price range. In the long run, beer prices are still gradually increasing. ?

The rise in the price of agricultural products has a negative impact on many aspects of the market, but at the same time, the increase in crop demand also drives the growth of seed industry demand, making the seed industry a long-term beneficiary industry. Seed is the carrier of agricultural science and technology, and the root that determines the yield and quality of crops. Seed is the starting point of the value chain, which has formed varying degrees of influence on many industries such as planting, agricultural product processing, food processing, and has an important position. In terms of market capacity, the market size of domestic commodity seeds is about 20 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan, which is large enough. At present, the commodity rate and the ratio of seed to grain of domestic seeds are low, about 10% to 20% of those of developed countries. ?

As the starting point of the entire agricultural industry chain, is there any enterprise winning at the starting point? Dabei Nong (002385) is based on seed and feed products as its basic business and core products. The sales revenue of these two types of products accounts for about 90% of the company's operating revenue. The reporter interviewed Chen Zhongheng, the secretary of the board of directors of the company, who said that the rise of agricultural products was good for the company. Due to the huge quantity of agricultural products, if there is one or two cents of increase in production capacity, the price of upstream seeds may increase by more than ten yuan. If agricultural products remain low for a long time, the price of seeds will also be limited. President Chen believes that this is a process of mutual influence. ?

As another main product of Dabei Nong, feed, Chen Zhongheng said that it was also affected very little, which was beneficial to the company to some extent. He explained from three aspects. First of all, the capital and strength of Dabeinong are very strong in the same industry. After years of market operation, he has a good grasp of the purchase market of raw materials. A professional research and procurement team has made pulse judgments on the market, and can constantly gain benefits from the fluctuations of the market, This enables the source of production to be well controlled. Secondly, he believes that the price fluctuation of agricultural products will have a great impact on a considerable number of small and medium-sized enterprises, limiting the original market, which gives the big northern farmers with cost advantages a good opportunity to seize more market shares and further expand their sales. Finally, he introduced that the feed of Dabei Nong is premix and high-end feed as its main products. Premix is an intermediate compound feed product made by mixing one or more trace components, including various trace mineral elements, vitamins, synthetic amino acids, certain drugs and other additives with diluents or carriers according to requirements. Therefore, corn seeds with rising prices have little impact on the company, but have a greater impact on the full price material market. In 2009, the total feed production capacity was 1.28 million tons, and the sales volume was 950000 tons. The revenue and profit accounted for 86% and 75% of the company's total revenue and profit respectively. The main highlight of the feed business is the pig premix with a high gross profit margin (about 38% gross profit margin). The sales volume in 2009 was 190000 tons, ranking first in China for four consecutive years, contributing 40% of the company's profits. ?

When a reporter asked that as an upstream industry, the company would currently raise the price of seeds and feed, Chen Zhongheng said that Dabeinong would not raise the price on its own initiative. Unless there was a trend of price increase in the whole industry, the company would also prudently consider price adjustment in combination with profit distribution. He said that the company will first consider the interests of farmers. It is engaged in industries related to people's livelihood. It should not take the opportunity to raise prices because market prices have risen slightly. As an enterprise with a sense of social responsibility, it should not only put interests first. It must be something that many enterprises should pay attention to and consider.