Cotton Prices Are Crazy, Textile Exports Are Hard To Say.

The spring of textile industry seems to come earlier than other industries.

In the 1~4 months of this year, the whole industry exported two digit growth year-on-year, and the industry prosperity index also showed that textile enterprises continuously improved.

However, when textile exports seem to take the lead, it needs to be seen that the sharp rebound in export data is more or less due to the low base promotion in the same period last year.

The United States, the European Union and Japan are the most important areas of textile and clothing consumption in the world, and also the main export market of China's textile industry.

But at present, the unemployment rate in Europe, the United States and Japan is still at a high level. The EU debt problem is one after another, and the peripheral demand has not seen an unexpected rebound.

In the second half of this year, under the overlapping of trade frictions, European debt crisis and RMB appreciation, the export situation of textile industry should not be blindly optimistic.

Cotton prices climbed rapidly

The cost of textile industry, which began at the end of last year, is the biggest in recent years.

In May 11th, the data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing showed that in the 11 sub indices of the 4 manufacturing industry purchasing managers index (PMI) in China, the purchase price of raw materials rose the largest, the highest point since 2008.

Among them, especially the textile industry led by the 13 industries purchase price index of raw materials increased by more than 70% over the same period.

In the cost of garments, cotton yarn prices generally account for 60%~70%, and cotton yarn has increased by more than 20% since the beginning of this year.

The steep rise in cotton prices began in 2009. China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) rose from 10966 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to 17289 yuan per ton in May 25th this year, which has risen by 57.66%.

Supply shortage is one of the causes of high cotton prices. In the short term, this pattern is difficult to improve.

According to China cotton net, China's cotton supply and demand gap may reach 3 million 500 thousand tons before the new cotton market in late August.

The long term of income, the increase of the cost of planting cotton, and the benefit of increasing income are not obvious, which makes farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton decrease year by year.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2009, China's cotton planting area was 4 million 950 thousand hectares, a decrease of 800 thousand hectares compared with that of the previous year, but it could be further reduced by 2.3% in 2010.

Last year, China's cotton production was 6 million 400 thousand tons, down 14.6% from the same period last year.

The cotton production area will be further reduced, and cotton production areas such as Xinjiang will continue to encounter severe weather such as Blizzard, low temperature and so on. This year's cotton output will probably continue to decline.

Domestic supply is insufficient, can it be made up by imports? In early April, India, the country of the largest cotton importing country in China, announced that the shipment of cotton (including contracted and unshipped goods) after April 9th was imposed on export duties of 2500 rupees / ton. Soon, the India government announced that it would suspend cotton exports from April 19th.

The international cotton price has also reached a record high. The Cotlook A index (equivalent to domestic grade 328 cotton) has risen 55.1% over the same period last year, the highest point since 2003.

The limited export of India will make China's cotton supply and demand more strained.

The pursuit of capital has made the price of cotton less expensive and more frantic.

At the beginning of this year, the Xinjiang Zhejiang chamber of Commerce estimated that at least 10 billion yuan of Zhejiang's private capital left Shanxi's coal mines and real estate to fight for Xinjiang's main producing area in Xinjiang.

Facing the "Crazy" cotton price, the relevant departments of the state have made heavy punches.

In May 21st, the national development and Reform Commission convened the relevant departments to convene a joint meeting on cotton macro-control, confirming that 800 thousand tons of cotton import quotas were added in May, and said that other regulatory measures should not be excluded to stabilize the market.

But experts in the industry believe that there is little room for policy adjustment of cotton prices under the influence of limited supply in the future.

Cotton prices will remain high in the future market, and there is a possibility of a breakthrough of 20 thousand yuan / ton.

Recovery of external demand is still difficult.

In May 11th, the General Administration of Customs issued an early warning report. In the 1 quarter of this year, the monthly export volume of China's textile and clothing showed a trend of decreasing month by month, with the export volume of 11 billion dollars in March, down 9.5% compared with the same period last year, and the ratio decreased by 12.9%.

From regional perspective, China's export growth to major markets also showed a significant decline.

In the month of March, China's exports to Japan, the European Union and the United States decreased by 16.88%, 15.81% and 3.06% respectively.

Textile is the most important export product in China. Because of its low price, it has always been the focus of trade friction.

China's exports to Europe and the United States many times the clothing "recall" incident.

In the first 5 months of last year, China's products accounted for 65 of the 92 textile and apparel products recalled by the European Union.

4 times this year, the EU recalled 26 textile and apparel products, and China accounted for 15.

According to a statistics from the US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), the number of textiles recall in China from 1 to April this year was 22, accounting for 81.5% of the total number of CPSC recalls, an increase of 83.3% over the same period last year.

Although there are quality reasons behind the recall, the deep level is related to the low quality of clothing in China.

Wang Yu, vice president of the China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, admitted in public: "Chinese manufacturers often blindly follow the design provided by the design side, but do not know about the import trade regulations, resulting in the coincidence of design and production, but decoupling from the regulations, causing the recall to happen many times."

As an export-oriented industry, the prospects for recovery of the textile industry will inevitably be affected by the appreciation of the renminbi.

According to a test result of China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the average profit margin of China's textile and garment enterprises is 3% to 5%, and some enterprises are even far below 3%.

Moreover, the continuously rising export tax rebate rate in the industry supports the profit statement of enterprises to a certain extent.

According to estimates, when other factors of production cost and price remain unchanged, RMB appreciation will be reduced by 1% by 1 percentage points.

Due to worries about the appreciation of RMB, the textile enterprises are afraid to take orders at the moment, which seriously affects the operation rate of the enterprises, and also makes many foreign orders go to Vietnam, Kampuchea, India and other countries.

Although the appreciation of RMB has not come true yet, if the RMB appreciation rate is too large in the future, it will strike a heavy blow on our textile and clothing export.

Manufacturers hope to pass on the pressure of rising costs by raising prices, but at present, China's textile enterprises are mainly small and medium enterprises, and more than 95% of the enterprises produce low-end OEM products, and their bargaining power with foreign manufacturers is very weak.

Textile enterprises focus their attention on the domestic market, hoping to make up for the loss of overseas business caused by RMB appreciation and trade friction by expanding the domestic market. Many agencies also expect domestic sales to grow by more than 20% this year.

But the textile industry's domestic sales may not be easy.

Recently, the mainland and Taiwan negotiated and signed the agreement on Cross Strait Economic Cooperation Framework (ECFA), which is likely to be finalized within the year.

Taiwan textile industry is one of the good industries that Taiwan hopes highly.

Once ECFA is signed, the domestic market of textile industry will usher in a strong competitor.