Local Rules Are More "Gentle Landing", Property Market Regulation Is Far From Being In Place.

The industry believes that the urgent matter of market regulation is to resolutely control the implementation of regulatory policies, and "subtraction" and "additions".

Xinhua Shanghai, May 27, a new round of real estate regulation and control policy has been implemented for more than a month, the property market is still in the "chaotic stage": the soaring housing prices are generally slightly loose, but speculative investment demand in hot spots is still active. Local regulation rules have been promulgated, but it seems to be more and more flexible. There are various signs that we can not be too optimistic about the effectiveness of regulation.

According to the insiders, the urgent matter of the housing market is to resolutely control the implementation of the regulation and control policy, and to "reduce" and "add" together. On the one hand, we must resolutely curb speculative investment demand, curb the excessive rise of housing prices in some cities, and make the risk of reasonable callback of housing prices under control. On the other hand, we must ensure that the measures to increase commercial housing and guarantee housing starts and supply can be strictly implemented.

Local regulation rules are more "gentle landing".

The "Ten States" issued in mid April highlighted the central government's determination to curb speculative investment in property market, strengthen supervision, increase supply and curb the rapid rise in housing prices. However, why is the market still difficult to identify? Analysts believe that in addition to the lack of worry about housing prices, the internal driving force of price promotions is still insufficient, another reason is: some local regulatory policies far lower than expected. If the signal is different, the game of "empty watch" and "bullish" will naturally continue.

Beijing issued in April 30th, "implementing the State Council's Circular on Resolutely Curbing the excessive rise in housing prices in some cities" explicitly called for "suspension of loans to non Beijing residents who purchase third or more housing and can not provide proof of tax certificate or social insurance payment in Beijing for more than 1 years". The wording is more severe than that of "ten countries".

After entering May, the local rules and regulations were released one after another, and the tone was obviously "mild".

Shenzhen's May 6th rules issued a direct response to speculators and temporarily suspended the purchase of housing loans for non local residents who could not provide proof of tax certificate or social insurance payment for more than 1 years. In a notice issued on the same day, Xi'an did not emphasize the suppression of speculative buying. Instead, it focused on regulating supply and stabilizing the word.

Zhejiang in May 19th, "sword", giving priority to the provident fund loans for the first time purchase, while requiring the study to implement a specific restriction policy, can be described as "keep pressure", rational but relatively mild.

Guangzhou's bright spot in May 21st, the 24 measure is to increase the supply of land and affordable housing, and strengthen market supervision, but it does not involve restraining demand.

In May 21st, Chongqing promulgated ten rules to encourage first-time home buyers, emphasizing differential guidance, which meant that the property market was stable and healthy, and its severity was lower than previously expected. SouFun's web survey of the "Chongqing edition" policy shows that as of 27 a.m., 10 a.m., 61.31% of netizens believed that the ten were "relatively moderate", while 34.02% thought "no impact on the property market".

On the whole, although the local version of the property market regulation has been issued in the framework of central regulation, some local policies are not rigid enough, and there are plenty of leeway. {page_break}

The property market presents "alternative scenery".

With the deepening of regulation, the "cooling" signs of the property market have already appeared, but some areas still seem to have some "hot spots".

In Hangzhou, in the late March of this year, the "Green City Blue Qianjiang" record of "3 hours sold out of 188 tens of millions of yuan level luxury houses" was opened again on the 24 day. Among them, the 35 apartments of Jiangjing 1 building reached the average price of 62 thousand yuan / square meter, and the lowest price of each set was about 24000000 yuan. Hangzhou transparent housing network shows that to date 17 hours, the property has been booked 18 units, more than half of the sale.
China Index Research Institute's monitoring data show that since late April, the number of new commercial residential areas in many cities in China has fallen by week, but housing prices are now at a high level of consolidation. For example, during the week from April 26th to May 2nd, the volume of transactions in 26 cities in the 32 cities monitored decreased, of which Nanjing dropped by more than 70%; in the key cities that could monitor the price, only Beijing was down, the rest of the cities rose, and Shenzhen increased by 9.38%. In from May 3rd to 9th, 26 of the 35 cities fell in volume, while prices in most key cities were much lower, but Hangzhou rose by 25.06%. Since May 17th, according to the reporter's interview, the prices of second-hand housing in some key cities have been reduced, but new houses are still mixed.

In terms of land, Central Plains real estate monitoring information on the transfer of residential land in 12 major cities shows that there has been no significant change in the number of residential land sold, the transfer rate and the premium rate before and after the introduction of the new policy. Four weeks after the implementation of the new policy, the average area of residential land sold in the above cities was about 153 hectares, with the rate of 24%, and the premium rate of 37%. Compared to the homestead transactions from January 2010 to March (the area of 214 hectares of Zhou Pingjun transferred, the rate of 13% of the flow rate, 56% of the premium rate), although there was a change, the scope was not obvious, and there was still a "king of land". Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center Director Tao Qi analysis found that the current hot spots are still favored by large housing enterprises, and state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and listed companies are rich, while small and medium-sized Housing enterprises are more cautious in bidding for small and medium-sized plots, with a majority of base price and slightly higher than the bottom price.

Resolutely curb the excessive rise in housing prices and not relax.

Although the "new policy" has been implemented for more than a month, the regulation of the property market is far from being in place. In terms of housing prices, and not to mention that many cities have not seen any obvious loosening or even rise in their housing prices, even 3% or 5% of the individual areas have come down. A number of banks have completed the stress tests recently, and most banks are able to withstand a drop of 20% to 30%. At present, the reasonable callback of housing prices is basically controllable on credit risk.

Another related issue is real estate investment. Although real estate investment and new construction area increased month by month from January to 4 this year, the industry generally expected that the investment in real estate development after May would be somewhat reduced due to tightened funds. Under these circumstances, the housing security measures in the central and local policies are worth looking forward to. The total amount of land provided by the Ministry of land in 2010 is much larger than that in previous years, and the total amount of affordable housing and small and medium-sized commercial housing has reached 77% of the total. In some places, 60% or more of the total amount of affordable housing and policy housing has been started in 2010.

If strictly implemented according to plan, the "big plate" that can ensure the supply of real estate is generally stable or even increased, and more importantly, it can stabilize the expectation of market supply, and will not repeat the situation that "the actual supply price is expected to rise rapidly due to insufficient supply". On the other hand, if the affordable housing of such a scale can really "land", we should make up for the investment and consumption gap caused by the possible downfall of commercial housing development in the following aspects, such as ensuring investment in real estate development, stimulating upstream industries such as steel, cement, and decorative consumer goods.

Insiders pointed out that measures to curb investment speculative demand and curb the rapid rise in housing prices should be carried out resolutely, especially in order to prevent some policies from being weak or even deformed. At the same time, we must strictly implement the means of increasing the supply of commercial housing and speeding up the construction of affordable housing and so on, and we should speed up the study and formulate tax policies that guide individuals' reasonable housing consumption and regulate personal property gains.