People'S Daily Three Asked Why The Stock Market Went Down, And Four On Combating Insider Trading.

Editor's note: since the middle of April, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have dropped sharply.

Against this background, since May 6th, the people's Daily has published 7 reports and comments on the hot issues of stock market. The highlights are two: first, interviews with experts and investors on the causes of the stock market decline; and two, continuous reporting and comment on cracking down on illegal activities in accordance with the law.

Many investors hope to get some inspiration from these 7 reports and comments.

To this end, this newspaper today focuses on sorting out the essence of these 7 articles for your reference.

Limited space, newspaper editing slightly deleted.

　　中國經濟趨好 股市為何跌跌不休

China's stock market has become a real reverse indicator or a reverse barometer.

In the first quarter of this year, macroeconomic data and listed companies' reports show that China's economic growth rate is ahead of the world, and the growth of listed companies is leading the world.

However, the Shanghai stock index or Shenzhen composite index has hit the biggest drop in the world. In recent times, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been in a deep concussion. In a few trading days, the Shanghai stock index has been in the most severe adjustment for more than six months, from 3159 to 2870.

Why is the positive expression of macroeconomic fundamentals not reflected in the stock market operation and what worries the market?

　　嚴控房價成為下跌導火索

Bason, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, believes that the decline of the stock market last month was the result of the intensive introduction of real estate control policies, which led to the diving of the real estate sector.

The fall of the property market also affects the trend of bank shares, because banks are the main lending parties of real estate.

The tightening of liquidity is no longer news, and the anticipation of liquidity recovery since the beginning of this year is continuously strengthening.

At the end of 4, the central bank also issued a 75 billion and 1 - year central bank vote, and implemented the repo operation for 10 consecutive weeks, resulting in the Shanghai stock market falling to 2866 points on that day.

In May 2nd, the central bank decided to increase the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points from May 10th, thereby tightening liquidity loans by about 300 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan.

Such a great deal of regulation makes it difficult for A shares to get out of the shadows in the short term.

　　加息預期影響市場心理

Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the securities and Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, also said: "the stock market should be somewhat abnormal in this fall. First of all, it is a concern about macroeconomic tightening, especially on raising interest rates."

Some analysts believe that, in view of the inevitable high inflation in China in the second half of this year, China will inevitably have intensive interest rates, and even tighten monetary policy is likely to run through the whole year. By the end of the year, moderately loose monetary policy is likely to give way to moderately tight monetary policy.

If fiscal policy changes from positive to moderate, and monetary policy changes from moderately loose to moderately tight, at present, whether to raise interest rates or raise interest rates has become an important vane for many investors to observe the central bank's monetary policy shift.

It is precisely because of these concerns that a significant impact on the market.

As a matter of fact, all sides expect that the policy of gradual exit in the future is essentially to prevent partial overheating in the process of economic recovery, while controlling inflation and ensuring healthy and stable development of the economy.

As the market mentality is unstable, the rate hike is expected to overreact.

　　股指期貨放大了下跌幅度

In April 16th, China's first financial futures variety HSI 300 stock index futures contract was officially put on the market.

Its launch also marks the departure of China's capital market from the unilateral market that can only rely on rising share prices.

However, in the first trading day after the launch of stock index futures, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plunged sharply in two cities.

It can be said that hedging, value discovery and stability functions of stock index futures have not been reflected in China's stock market, and their negative effects have been highlighted.

Such as gambling function, speculation function, up and down vibration function and so on.

Some analysts believe that the introduction of stock index futures in the short term will lead to partial preference for high-risk investors from the stock market to the futures market, resulting in a certain capital squeeze effect, the stock market's capital flows to the futures market, causing the stock market to temporarily lose blood.

Melamed, President of the Chicago commodity exchange, who has the reputation of "the father of global financial futures", said that stock index futures will play a stabilizing role in the spot market and will not deepen the fluctuation of the spot market.

{page_break}

　　下跌是否只是短暫回調?

When the stock market goes to bear market, there are still a lot of positive factors to support the good turn of the stock market.

Wu Xiaoqiu said: "I believe this fall is relatively short, and it can not be a long bear market."

The official website of the people's Bank of China has released an analysis report on China's macroeconomic situation in the first quarter of 2010.

Data show that domestic demand is booming, and economic growth has accelerated significantly. In 2010, China's economy started well.

In the first quarter of this year, the performance of listed companies was gratifying.

Statistics show that the total revenue of 306 companies is 273 billion 141 million yuan, up 51% over the same period last year. Net profit was 20 billion 212 million yuan, an increase of 233% over the same period last year.

Experts believe that the continuous improvement of the macro-economic situation will eventually be reflected in the stock market. In other words, the ultimate force determining the trend of the stock market must be the trend of the macroeconomy.

Some experts believe that the appreciation of the renminbi is strong, which will lead to a large influx of international capital into the mainland market; if China increases interest rates in major markets such as Europe and the United States, it will also lead to the influx of international hot money, all of which may push the stock index up.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic economist of CITIC Securities, said that from the short-term operation of the stock market, the conversion of bull market and bear market is always going on. The "bull" to bear is a normal state. No matter whether the real estate regulation or interest rate is expected to increase, the starting point is to prevent asset bubbles and hyperinflation.

Even if this adjustment will suppress stock prices in some sectors, this is also a normal callback.

(Yang Fang, Yu Jieshuai, Peng Kun)

　　A股為何連續下跌

Since mid April, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets began to accelerate and break down after more than half a year's shake up.

China's A share market is much larger than the recent major global stock markets.

Why is the market going down? Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Institute, believes that multiple factors lead to a continuous adjustment of the stock market. But the most important factor is the regulation of real estate.

The market value of real estate related industry chain is very large, and regulation will also affect people's judgment of steel, cement, banking and other related industries.

"Some investors have speculated that regulating the real estate will push the flow of capital from the property market to the stock market, thereby promoting the stock market up.

I do not think this is the case, because generally speaking, the two market associations are very large, rather than the seesaw relationship.

Li Daxiao said.

In addition, monetary policy has gradually returned from over easy to moderately loose normalization. This year, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has been raised 3 times, and the market's expectation of raising interest rates has always been there.

Under such a policy environment, the liquidity of the stock market is bound to be tense.

The sharp fluctuations in the offshore market will also have a psychological impact on investors in the A share market.

　　股指期貨是振蕩下跌的“放大器”?

The stock index futures, launched in April 16th, made the A share market short.

In the second trading day of stock index futures, the A share market fell sharply.

Since then, the index and spot index have both dropped rapidly.

Some investors believe that the introduction of stock index futures is the reason why the stock market has fallen.

Investors, Mr. Li said, when the market is in a downward trend, people who participate in stock index futures can open stock index futures and wait for the stock index to fall after the stock price falls.

This is equivalent to the fact that when the stock index is down, it is pushed by a force, and the speed will surely be faster.

As a matter of fact, after the introduction of stock index futures, the stock market fell, and there was a precedent in overseas markets.

However, judging from the long-term operation of overseas markets, stock index futures as a hedging tool can not have a substantial impact on the long-term trend of the stock spot market.

The "rising first and then falling" phenomenon in overseas markets is related to the herd effect and speculative atmosphere in the market.

Zheng Xueqin, general manager of the Chicago options exchange, said that the main function of stock index futures is not as many people say, providing investors with the opportunity to win the stock market down.

Its main function is to provide investors with tools to seek protection.

With such a market, investors do not have to sell stocks to avoid possible losses.

He believes that at present, China's stock market futures trading, regardless of volume, positions and participants, can only say that the establishment of a market skeleton.

It also failed to achieve a substantial impact on the stock market.

　　真正的“市場底”何時會出現

After this round of decline, there was a relatively strong rebound in the market in May 13th.

Is the market bottoming out or just a rebound in the way down?

CITIC Securities researcher Feng said that in the short term, the market has a "performance bottom" and "valuation bottom".

According to their calculations, even with the most pessimistic expectations, net profit growth in 2010 dropped to around 15.8%, down to 15 times the dynamic P / E ratio, corresponding to the Shanghai composite index at around 2410.

However, he also believes that the bottom of the valuation is often a matter of hindsight. When the real "market bottom" will come up, it still depends on the changes in market expectations and economic expectations.

In terms of policy expectations, Liu Xianjun, a CITIC investment analyst, said that after the April economic data, especially the consumption index (CPI) data, there were two phenomena that deserving investors' attention. One is that although CPI has achieved a high level of innovation, its magnitude is lower than most people's expectations. Two, after the publication of CPI data, the voice of raising interest rates on the market has been greatly reduced.

At least, this shows that under the structural inflation data, the economic situation will be more complicated. At this time, the central bank will be more prudent in using the means of raising interest rates.

Li Daxiao said, the stock market decline, fundamentally speaking is the whole market fund imbalance.

In the stock market, there is always money to come in, and money to flow away, but it runs faster than inflows.

On this issue, if the parties concerned can take some measures, such as large shareholders can further increase social security funds, insurance funds, public funds to raise the proportion of the market, and so on, the development of market sources of funds, matching the speed of financing and the speed of attracting investment will be more conducive to the stability of the market.

(Xu Zhifeng Liu Jia) {page_break}

　　股指期貨不是下跌“元兇”

Since its launch in April 16th, stock index futures have been full months.

In a short month, the number of stock index futures accounts has increased rapidly, reaching more than 20 thousand households, with a margin of 7 billion yuan.

However, in the month of stock index futures, the A share market plummeted.

At the closing price of April 16th, the biggest decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index reached 17.87% in the current round of decline.

So, some people think that the introduction of stock index futures has induced and boosted the stock market crash.

　　股市漲跌有自身規律

Stock index futures and stock market are unfounded.

Prof. He Qiang, director of the securities and Futures Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, has decided that the fundamentals and macro policies, not stock index futures, have determined the stock market's ups and downs.

Even without stock index futures, the current round of decline is inevitable.

There are many reasons that affect the current stock market decline, such as the Greek debt crisis and other factors, such as the domestic monetary policy and the tight market policy.

"The ups and downs of the stock market have their own rules, and it is unfounded to attribute stock market decline to stock index futures."

Yao Xingtao, deputy general manager of Shanghai securities, said.

Haitong Securities senior researcher Yong Zhiqiang said that after the listing of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures, the 4 contract prices are closely related to the stock spot market. There is no such a situation that the stock index futures contract price is out of stock and independent. The price of the stock index futures contract basically follows the trend of the spot index of the stock index, which is also consistent with the initial situation of the overseas stock index futures market.

The timeshare data provided by Yong Zhiqiang show that stocks are on the spot, leading stock index futures instead of stock index futures.

Only when the nominal paction volume and the value of the unliquidated contract of the stock index futures exceed the 50% of the trading volume of the spot stock market, or even about 80%, will the price discovery of the stock index futures affect the stock spot market.

　　資金規模只有70億元

"Small ants" difficult to shake the stock market "elephant"

Experts believe that stock index futures should become a stabilizer for stock market.

However, due to the introduction of stock index futures, it is still difficult to achieve this goal no matter the size of the market or the breadth of participants.

At present, the scale of stock index futures in mainland China is only 7 billion yuan.

The total amount of margin is still less than the total market value of a stock, compared with the A share market with a total market value of about 20 trillion, "small ants" can hardly shake the "elephant" of the stock market.

Market research shows that through the analysis of the recent stock market and capital market flows and stock, since April 16th, the net outflow of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has been around 67 billion 894 million as China's stock market has collapsed, and in this period, the average stock in the futures market is 1 billion 594 million.

Judging from the amount of funds, the behavior of funds in the stock index futures market can not affect the stock market trend.

In addition, according to the estimate, about 94.93% of the volume of stock index futures has been trading in trend speculation since the date of stock index futures.

This is a relatively slow decline in stock index futures, which has always been the main reason for the spread of positive spreads.

Once again, it proved that spot driven futures fell rather than futures pulled spot down.

　　期指成交量為名義成交額

It is not worth a fuss

After the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index futures contract is listed, the paction is more active, the daily average turnover is about 160 thousand hands, and the volume of turnover is up to 100 billion yuan, even beyond the volume of the spot market.

Will such a large volume affect the stock market?

According to professional analysis, the turnover is relatively normal, though much higher than expected.

Stock index futures are margin trading, and carry out the "T+0" intra day revolving paction. They can be traded several times within the same capital day. All these pactions are nominal and the nominal turnover is high.

At present, the nominal paction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index futures is basically close to that of the stock spot market. Therefore, such trading volume is not worth making a fuss about.

In the past, the stock market plummeted. Investors or institutional investors could only sell stocks and hedge, and the more they sold, the more they fell.

Now when the stock market is under pressure and liquidity is insufficient, investors can choose to hedge in the stock index futures market, thereby reducing the selling pressure of the stock market, and the stock market may also fall.

Prof He Qiang stressed that China's stock index futures are still immature, and investors are not fully familiar with it. We should take care of this market.

Don't let a baby in a baby bear more pressure. He has to grow.

(Xie Weiqun) {page_break}

　　證券市場違法行為將遭嚴打

The report introduces the main contents of the Supreme People's Procuratorate and the Ministry of public security on the standard of filing criminal cases for criminal cases under public security organs (two). This document stipulates the standards for filing and prosecuting illegal acts under the jurisdiction of the public security organs, such as insider trading and manipulation of the securities market.

Capital foresight is frequent.

Coincidence or insider information leakage?

In May 19th, Hongda shares (600331) changed. The volume of pactions was 670 million yuan, nearly more than 200 million times the average daily turnover in the previous month, and the share price was closed at a daily limit.

On the evening of 19, the company issued a notice of suspension of major asset reorganization, saying that major shareholders are brewing a major asset restructuring of the company, which will suspend for a maximum of one month.

This is suspected by the outside world that the news of restructuring is leaked ahead of time. On the 19 day, a large amount of funds to buy HTC shares might be suspected of using insider information to engage in securities trading.

Did the news leak ahead of time? Why so many coincidence?

Mr. Xu, who has been engaged in securities investment for a long time, thinks that in April 20, 2009, the day before the suspension of Gaochun ceramics (600562), there was also a trend of volume trading, which is very similar to the HTC shares.

Later, traders with insider information were placed on file for investigation because they bought a large number of Gaochun ceramic stocks in advance.

If we only use coincidence to explain the influx of funds before HTC's major reorganization, we must not be convinced.

Therefore, from the trading situation of HTC's shares, it is very likely that some funds get the inside information in advance, and the possibility of securities trading over 500 thousand yuan is also very large.

Mr. Xu said that in the A share market, the two days before the company suspended the sale of major events, the case of funds pouring into the market is not uncommon, such as China Heavy Industries in May 5th this year, and Rong Sheng Chao in April 26th.

Why is it so smart every time?

However, in most cases, because investors themselves are not making money, they have not suffered direct losses, so many people are very strange and muddle along.

Mr. Xu hoped that the relevant departments of the SFC and the relevant departments could strictly supervise such chaos.

(Shen Yin)

　　打擊股市內幕交易須強化執行力

In order to crack down on illegal activities in the securities market, the Supreme People's Procuratorate and the Ministry of Public Security jointly issued regulations in May 18th to clarify the standards of filing and filing cases of insider trading in the stock market.

However, only one day after the release of the regulation, there was a very suspicious paction in Hongda shares, which aroused great public concern.

There is no doubt that insider information leakage and insider trading regulation have been a difficult problem in the stock market.

However, the serious investigation of insider trading will be very harmful to shareholders, to the stock market and even to the economic development of our country.

The concept of value investment that affects shareholders.

In investor education, we always advocate "value investing", hoping that investors can reduce speculation and pay more attention to the fundamentals and intrinsic value of listed companies, and share dividends from the long-term development of companies.

However, the emergence of suspicious pactions has greatly impacted the value investment concept of shareholders. Many investors have focused on the "information stocks", hoping to get rich information in advance.

Affect the healthy development of the securities market.

Credit is the cornerstone of financial market.

Are we advocating investment or speculation? Are our shareholders shareholders or gamblers? They are directly related to the credit level of the market.

If not seriously dealt with, a few insider trading events will greatly weaken the market credit, the impact is very bad.

It will affect the sustainable development of national economy.

The stock market can be redistributed through the market, so that investors can enjoy more dividends from listed companies and share the fruits of economic development.

The emergence of insider trading has robbed some large investors of the opportunity to share the development dividends, thus affecting domestic demand and sustainable development of the national economy.

Insider trading is fiercer than tiger! Since the fight against insider trading has been clear, there are laws to follow.

The next step is to focus on the execution.

It is hoped that the relevant departments will make a firm decision to check some suspicious pactions, repay them with innocence, and punish the offenders with confidence.

(six, for example)

　　香港如何嚴打內幕交易

Strengthening the legislation and judicature of the securities market and insider trading are included in criminal offences.

In the work of the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission, combating insider trading is a major task, but for such violations, Hongkong's name is rather special, calling it "market misconduct".

The so-called market misconduct is based on the definition of the 245th section of the securities and Futures Ordinance of Hongkong, which includes insider trading, false trading, manipulation of prices, manipulation of the securities market, disclosure of information on prohibited pactions and disclosure of false or misleading information in order to induce securities and futures contracts to be traded.

In accordance with the 252nd section of the securities and Futures Ordinance, the financial secretary of the SAR Government may, when considering the reports made by the SFC or the notification given by the Secretary for justice, or in other circumstances, feel that there has been or may have been market misconduct, may conduct proceedings in the tribunal, and the tribunal has jurisdiction to understand and determine any issues or disputes relating to market misconduct.

{page_break}

　　內幕交易遭遇重拳嚴打，成為不可觸摸的“紅線”。

In July 17, 2008, the first crime of insider trading was fined since the enactment of the securities and Futures Ordinance. Xiong Limei used insider information to avoid a loss of HK $more than 60 thousand, at a cost of HK $200 thousand and 6 months' imprisonment (suspended for 2 years).

Insider trading has become an invisible red line in Hongkong stock market.

In the past 2009, the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) was a fruitful year to crack down on insider trading.

Among them, a case in April led to a milestone in the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission's efforts to crack down on insider trading.

In the case, the investment banker Ma Han Yang was convicted of insider trading and sentenced to 26 months' imprisonment and a fine of HK $230 thousand. He became the first person to be sentenced to prison in Hongkong for that offence.

Wei Yili, chief executive of the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission, clearly stated after the sentencing of the case: "the signal sent out in this case is very clear.

Since then, more people who have violated the principles of fair and just market have been sent to prison, and have repeatedly hit a "new high" in terms of sentences and fines.

In addition to facing jail, insider traders may face huge claims.

Fair market provides fair game rules, and profits from illegal acts must be faced with higher violation costs.

The securities and Futures Ordinance expressly grants civil rights to recover damages for loss victims, and insider traders may face huge compensation litigation for other investors in addition to facing jail.

On the whole, Hongkong has established a set of external checks and balances mechanism to ensure that the SFC is fair and impartial. The whole Hongkong society is also striving to create a fair and just social atmosphere without providing an opportunity for irregularities.

(Huang Zheng)