This Year'S Surplus Is Only 1/4 In The Past Year, And Insufficient External Demand.

At the end of last month, Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, said in a visit to Japan that there might be a two recession in the global economy. We must prepare for the two "bottom finding".

Yesterday, the State Council Development Research Center and the Zhejiang provincial government hosted the "Third China open forum" in Ningbo to conduct consultations on the global and Chinese economic trends in the post crisis era.

A number of heavyweight economists attending the meeting said that the sovereign debt crisis of European countries indicates that the financial crisis has not yet ended and the global economy is likely to "bottom out" for two times. In the face of many uncertainties in the domestic and international economic and financial situation, we must remain vigilant.

The theme of this forum is "China's opening up to the outside world after the first economic recovery" - the depth and breadth of development.

It is noteworthy that all the speakers came from the State Council Development Research Center and the China International Economic Exchange Center. The former has the reputation of "the State Council think tank", while the latter is "the highest level think tank in China". It was founded by Premier Wen Jiabao and vice premier Zeng Peiyan.

China needs to "upgrade" in the external demand market.

"After the outbreak of the financial crisis, under the joint efforts of the international community, the financial markets of developed countries are gradually stabilized, and some countries' real economy is showing signs of recovery, but we must realize that the financial crisis is not yet over."

Zhang Yutai, director of the development research center of the State Council, said that the sovereign debt crisis of individual countries in Europe has caused global financial market turbulence, and has once again sounded the alarm.

Zhang Yutai said that the world economy is still facing multiple challenges: the unemployment rate in the developed economies remains high, the consumption expectation is worsening; the financial reform has yet to be breakthroughs, leading to the fact that the root cause of the financial crisis has not really been eliminated; the deficit has increased significantly in some countries and the policy space has been narrowed; some side effects of the stimulus policy are gradually showing up, causing the price rise of primary products and so on.

Zhang Yutai called for maintaining continuity and stability in macroeconomic policies and enhancing foresight and flexibility.

On the same occasion, Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said: "the financial crisis has profoundly adjusted the world economic structure, mainly manifested in the rapid recovery of developing countries and emerging market economies in the crisis, and the proportion in the world economy has increased. However, the Fundamentals of the economy have not changed, such as the international monetary and monetary system dominated by the US dollar, the international economic and trade system dominated by developed countries, and the unbalanced development pattern of North and South".

Based on this, he believes that the challenges of the world economy should also be addressed in the long run.

Lu Yuan believes that "the world economy is likely to grow at a low speed in the next few years. The growth rate of 4% in the first few years is very difficult to achieve and may remain at 2%~3%.

Against such a background, China's external demand will not be as good and relaxed as it was in 2005 -2007.

Although China has long been the focus of domestic demand, it is also necessary to expand external demand.

Lu Zhongyuan reminding that China should also upgrade in the foreign demand market, pforming from extensive processing trade to added value and higher technical content.

He believes that the slow growth period of the world economy will lead to tighter China's trade environment and increase trade frictions, and trade protectionism aimed at China's exports will be pformed.

Trade will also see a monthly deficit. Corporate profits will not improve temporarily.

"The international financial crisis is likely to bottom out for the two time."

Wei Jianguo, Secretary General of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that China's top think tank.

First of all, there is still a period of economic recovery in the United States. The unemployment rate is 10% now. "I spoke with former US business minister Gutierrez the other day," he said.

Second, the EU economy is not optimistic. "Greece's debt crisis is the tip of the iceberg, just a fuse."

As far as China is concerned, "the Canton Fair in 2010 was significantly affected by the financial crisis".

The former Vice Minister of Commerce said that the number of foreign businessmen coming from the European Union increased by 15.2%, but the volume of trade decreased by 8.7%. Most of the orders of the enterprises were short-term orders, at most 3-6 months. "Most of the orders are to make up for the inventory caused by last year's financial crisis, and no imports have been filled up, but not as long as they used to be.

This is mainly because European merchants are not optimistic about their domestic market. "

"The development of China's export-oriented economy is not optimistic," Wei Jianguo said. Generally speaking, China's foreign trade surplus is 150 billion ~2000 billion a year, but the surplus in April was only 1 billion 600 million dollars.

There are still 8 months to go, and there will be deficits in some months.

So although the annual trade will still be favorable, it is expected to only reach 50 billion or less, equivalent to 1/4 in previous years.

"Generally speaking, this year will be the most complicated year in history. I am not very optimistic."

Wei Jianguo said.

However, Zhang Xiaoji, a research fellow of the State Council Development Research Center and Minister of Foreign Economic Research of the former research center, is slightly optimistic.

He believes that the current "two bottom" is not a continuation of the financial crisis, but on the road to economic recovery.

"If the recovery is mainly due to replenishment stocks, the recovery of the recovery will depend largely on the substantial growth of consumption and investment," he said. According to the data it grasped, the trend of consumption and investment to take up the baton of "inventory replenishment" continues.

For example, the US personal savings rate stayed at 3%~4% after the sharp rise in April this year, "a little lower than the peak, but it shows that Americans are willing to spend money."

"These data convey optimistic information indicating that the global economy is on the track of recovery."

Zhang Xiaoji said, of course, repetition is inevitable.

However, Zhang Xiaoji said, "there is no problem in the growth of foreign trade 10% this year, but in the process of recovery, there is no significant change in the export structure, product mix and market structure, and the profitability of enterprises will not improve significantly." this is the most worrying thing.