Annual Supply And Demand Is Tight &Nbsp; Cotton Price Or Record High.

Recently, cotton spot prices continued to rise, the progress of purchase and sale slowed down, and some textile enterprises still optimistic about the future market. Policy of development and Reform Commission India Restoring the export impact, Zheng cotton has been weakening in recent days. Overall, however, China's domestic demand for 09/10 is in short supply. High grade cotton resources in the international market are tight, and the quantity available for China's imports is limited. At the same time, weather disasters in main cotton producing areas lead to delayed planting and replanting, resulting in the delay of new cotton market. Based on the above factors, I believe that cotton prices are strong underneath, and the whole will remain upwards. New cotton is expected to hit a new high before coming into the market.

Since April, due to the frequent cold air activities in recent years, the cotton seedling situation has been greatly affected in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Anhui and other provinces and regions. Meanwhile, the cotton production progress in the non sowing areas has been delayed for 1-2 weeks. In May, the main producing areas of Xinjiang were suffering from rain, snow and hail disasters. The cotton fields suffered frosty have been paying close attention to the replanting. At present, the conclusion of the new cotton reduction is still early. The new cotton growth situation needs to pay attention to the weather conditions in 7-9 months and the arrival time of autumn frost period. However, the production period of affected cotton and reproducing cotton is shortened, and the decline of yield per unit is a foregone conclusion, and the quality and horse value may be reduced. At the same time, because of the delay of sowing date, the time of new cotton listing is also postponed compared with previous years.

According to the state cotton Market survey system sampling survey showed that as of May 5th, the average cotton inventory used by the enterprises surveyed was about 38.4 (including imported cotton). According to the relevant data, the national cotton industry inventory was about 1 million 81 thousand and 300 tons. In terms of business inventories, it is understood that cotton stocks in the mainland are around 1 million tons. The current quota margin is 1 million 300 thousand tons (including an additional 800 thousand tons). With the coming of the peak season of consumption, according to the consumption level of 900 thousand tons per month, 6 to four months in September need 3 million 600 thousand tons. The number of industrial stocks and commercial inventories plus quota is only available to the early September. However, the new cotton is expected to be listed in the first ten days of October. Therefore, the new and old cotton green and yellow may not be extended, which will aggravate the shortage of supply and demand at the end of the year.

Global demand in 10/11

According to the latest report of the US Department of agriculture, the global cotton production in 2010/2011 reached 24 million 796 thousand tons, an increase of 2 million 390 thousand tons over the current year, 25 million 927 thousand tons of consumption, an increase of 695 thousand tons, an import and export volume of 7 million 778 thousand tons, an increase of 240 thousand tons, a 10 million 915 thousand ton of final inventory and a reduction of 570 thousand tons. Among them, China's final inventory will be reduced by 441 thousand tons to 3 million 879 thousand tons, and India will be reduced from 103 thousand tons to 1 million 709 thousand tons, and the United States will reduce 22 thousand tons to 653 thousand tons. The data show that global cotton will remain in short supply in 10/11. The shortage of new cotton needs to establish the cornerstone of cotton price in the medium and long term to a certain extent.

The export market is clearly recovering, and the competitiveness of products continues to increase.

With the advent of summer, textiles will usher in the first consumption season this year. Most of the textile enterprises are continuously placing orders, and the situation of the cotton mill is very good. The price of domestic textiles is rising all the way, but from the current spot supply of the market, it is far from meeting the needs of textile enterprises. In April 18th, the first phase of the 107th Canton Fair was officially closed. With the improvement of the global economy, the number of overseas buyers has increased significantly. From the first statistical data, the first phase of the export trade reached US $17 billion 100 million, an increase of 9.8% over last autumn's fair, an increase of 31% over last spring's fair. The Canton Fair is in good shape and the order is picking up. It reflects the trend that the world economy is improving and the external demand is picking up. The trend of textile orders will be further confirmed.

The United States has always been one of China's most important export markets. From the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2010, large and small Sino US trade frictions flooded the layout of the media. However, the mutually beneficial attitude of the Sino US economic dialogue alleviated the market's worries about the Sino US trade war. The dialogue shows that, from its own needs, the United States will make concessions in the field of high and new technology in China, which will help to ease the Sino US trade surplus. After the current round of talks, the trade balance between China and the United States will show a good state, and China's export trade will probably increase significantly. With the acceleration of import growth from the United States, the proportion of textile and apparel products in the US import market is far higher than that of other major competitors, and continues to consolidate and enhance. In addition, the US side has changed the hard line of forcing the renminbi to appreciate. The two sides have not conducted in-depth discussions on the RMB exchange rate. From the two party's position, there is no "smell" of the exchange rate approaching. Affected by this, the 24 day spot market and the non capital delivery forward (NDF) market mainly focus on maintaining stability. The market further predicts that the RMB will still maintain a consolidation pattern in the near future, and the pressure of appreciation will be eased in the short term, which will further enhance the competitiveness of foreign trade products.

　　 policy Affecting or becoming short-term uncertain factors

In order to stabilize prices and meet the needs of textile enterprises, in May 20th, the national development and Reform Commission convened the joint meeting of the relevant departments of the national cotton macro regulation and control, said that while actively coordinating the spanport of Xinjiang cotton, the authorities issued 800 thousand tons of quasi tax quotas in May. The next step is to continue to increase import quotas in the light of market changes and textile demand, and do not rule out other means of regulation to stabilize the market. Therefore, the policy factors or the price of the disk will be suppressed in a short time.

However, the shortage of cotton reserves in China's spot market and the reduction of commercial inventories all over the country make cotton prices difficult to fall. At present, the supply of cotton is not optimistic. In addition to India (India is available for only 400 thousand tons of exports), the other two largest cotton importing countries in China, the United States and Uzbekistan, have reached its annual export target of approximately 200 thousand tons of cotton exports, and the cotton exports of the latter have reached an upper limit. The lack of international high-grade cotton resources can provide a limited number of imports to China. Therefore, the issuance of quotas is only a pressure on short-term cotton prices. However, the biggest variable before the advent of new cotton is 1 million 200 thousand tons of cotton reserves. If the market is short of supply in the 9-10 months, there will be little market supply. The state will sell some of the reserve cotton and ease the pressure of short-term supply and demand. From the 09 years of dumping and storage, under the background of supply shortage, selling cotton reserves can only stabilize market confidence in the short term, restrain the excessive price rise and enter the finishing pattern, but it can not suppress the downward effect of price weakness. Therefore, policy factors are short-term, temporary and temporary solutions. The more tense supply and demand relationship will drive prices up.

Generally speaking, the effective supply of cotton both inside and outside the new cotton market is limited, which is not enough to effectively alleviate the tense situation of supply shortage. The supply trend will become more intense, thus supporting cotton prices to keep rising. Market needs attention quota As a result, the sale of reserve cotton as the last straw in the government will play a role in cotton prices after a record high.