Quick Stop &Nbsp; Viscose Staple And Cotton Price Difference Is Only 1000 Yuan.

At present viscose staple fiber market is relatively calm, enterprise quotation basically remains unchanged, the overall trading atmosphere is slightly dull, enterprise inventory steadily.

By June 3rd, the mainstream price of southern 1.5D reached 18700-18800 yuan / ton, and the northern mainstream price to 18900-19200 yuan / ton.

The market price is at 18300 yuan / ton level.

However, relatively speaking, the market price of short silk cotton pulp continued to stabilize at 13600-13800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of two cotton lint market was maintained at 7600-7800 yuan / ton. According to the formula in the industry, viscose staple fiber is basically in a serious deficit.

Among them, the price difference between cotton pulp and viscose staple is only about 5000 yuan, and the processing cost of 6000-8000 yuan is much higher than that of viscose staple.

6 and July are the regular peak season for the sale of human cotton yarn. Whether this will lead viscose staple fiber out of the trough is also reasonable. At the same time, the price of viscose staple fiber is not high, and the price difference between cotton and viscose is only 1000 yuan, and the utilization efficiency is adequate.

The author estimates that under the support of multiple benefits, viscose staple fibers have been formed at the bottom or bottom.

First, high cost, viscose staple fiber run at a loss.

1.1.

At present, the price of cottonseed has dropped slightly. The cottonseed price in Shandong area is 1.35-1.36 yuan / jin (oil content is 11.5%, water 12%), slightly less than the price of 1.3-1.33 yuan / Jin, the difference is 1.28 yuan / Jin, down by 0.03-0.05 yuan / Jin, Hebei Gaocheng 1.26-1.28 yuan / Jin, down 0.05 yuan / Jin, Weixian County oil factory to factory price 1.36 yuan / Jin, down 0.03 yuan / Jin, the price of cotton seed in other parts of the country has 0.02-0.05 yuan / kg down.

The main reason for the decline is cottonseed meal, cotton and oil market down, cottonseed pressing no profit, oil factory purchasing enthusiasm is not high, much stop watch, or buy down, but at present, seed cotton prices continue to stabilize more than 4 yuan / Jin, 3 grade lint price is also over 17500, cotton ginning plant has strong desire to cotton seeds, which brings price support for cottonseed market, cotton seed prices stabilized signs of decline, obvious signs of further decline, limited space.

1.2. Short staple is still dominated by small shocks in the near future.

At present, the domestic cotton short staple market has been steadily falling. The quality of Xiajin cotton short staple factory has been quoted at 7900-8000 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the quoted price of 7600-7800 yuan / ton, the general price quoted is 7300-7500 yuan / ton, some of the quotations are 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and the price has dropped somewhat, mainly due to the poor sales of downstream products, the low purchasing enthusiasm of the chemical fiber factory, the refined cotton plant, and the adjustment of the market for pressing down the cotton lint.

At present, the price of cotton seed in the upper reaches is stable and stable, which will be curbed from cost.

1.3.

At present, the market quotation of two cotton lint on the market is about 7600 yuan / ton. According to the loss of 30%, the cost price of raw material of short silk grade cotton pulp is 9880 yuan / ton, plus 3000 yuan / ton (the current cost of auxiliary materials is soaring, and the processing cost is correspondingly raised). The total cost of short silk grade cotton pulp is 12880 yuan / ton, plus 6 point tax, the cost price rises to 13653 yuan / ton, and the profit margin with the mainstream market quotation is only less than 200 yuan.

The cost of viscose staple fiber was calculated at cost price, and the cost of raw materials increased to 15564 yuan / ton after the loss of 14%. With the processing cost of 6000-8000 yuan, the cost of 1.5D viscose staple fiber was 21564-23564 yuan / ton, and the loss was more than 2500 yuan.

Two, fast stop, viscose short fiber waiting to lever up the lever.

2.1. The price difference between viscose staple and cotton is only 1000 yuan.

Viscose staple fiber and cotton belong to the two major cotton textile raw materials in China. There is a relationship between them.

Generally speaking, the cotton blending ratio of textile enterprises is determined by the production of orders. Textile enterprises have little room to choose, but some enterprises often adjust the proportion of viscose staple and cotton in spinning raw materials according to their own conditions, so as to produce high profit and low risk yarn varieties.

According to data statistics, the price difference between viscose staple fiber and cotton is generally 3000-4000 yuan, and the current price difference is only 1000 yuan, far lower than the conventional loss. Relatively speaking, the use cost of viscose staple fiber is even more significant.

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2.2, the price of cotton yarn has stabilized, waiting for the peak season.

Although the overall sales of the cotton yarn Market in recent years are not optimistic, the price has also declined slightly. However, the drop of cotton yarn is far smaller than the decline of viscose staple, although the 30S cotton knitted yarn is reduced from 25500 yuan / ton to 24500 yuan / ton (without ticket price). The drop of viscose staple fiber from 18800 yuan / ton to 20000 yuan / ton decreases 1200 yuan or 6%.

According to the production cost of cotton yarn, taking 18800 yuan / ton as an example, according to the spinning loss of 1.02, the raw material cost price of the raw cotton yarn 30S is 19176 yuan / ton, plus the average processing cost of 4000 yuan / ton, the total cost price of 30S cotton yarn product is 23176 yuan / ton, and the market price of the product is 26000 yuan / ton in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, the price is 24500 yuan / ton without the ticket price, and the profit space is near 1200 yuan / ton.

Even if the price of viscose staple fiber is increased, from the cost point of view, the downstream cotton yarn enterprises can also bear it, which also indirectly supports the continuous rise of cotton yarn prices.

2.3 person cotton yarn June detonating peak season market sales to go higher

The recent cotton market is rather hot, with a relatively high turnover in the market. In particular, the shipments of printed cotton fabrics have soared, and creative flower fabrics have been more active. This seems to stimulate the insipid cotton yarn market.

Although cotton cloth has the same quality as cotton, such as moisture absorption and breathability, the appearance and dyeing properties of human cotton cloth do not catch up with all cotton cloth. This is also the main reason for the peak season of cotton yarn in 6 and July.

Three, other related factors

3.1 macro factors: "two high enterprises" are limited, viscose staple fiber expansion is difficult.

This year, the policy of "two high enterprises" and overcapacity enterprises has been heard all the time. The implementation of a series of policies to eliminate backward production capacity, cancel tariff preferences and tighten the supply of land has severely cracked down on the production of viscose industry.

Recently, the central bank also issued documents, saying that it would implement credit control on "two high enterprises" and encourage "green credit". Banks and financial institutions should strictly examine the financing applications of enterprises with high energy consumption and high emissions, and tighten credit lines for overcapacity industries.

At the same time, the viscose conference held last Tuesday encouraged the market enthusiasm, and the momentum of further market investigation was curbed. The implementation of the scale limitation requirement mentioned above will also play a good role in the future development of viscose staple fiber.

3.2 limited production and maintenance increased

The Funing Australia technology viscose staple production line has been shut down for maintenance since May 31st. Its sub plant, which involves half capacity, is about to start maintenance for a month or so.

At the same time, Manasi Shun Quan Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. has been fully loaded since its production in January 2008. Now, the company began to repair the whole workshop in May 15th for a period of about half a month.

Moreover, the state's policy of limiting production is also following the shadow. This will play a role in resisting the production of viscose staple fiber, which will play a supporting role in the supply side of viscose staple fiber.

Four, the summary of the future market

Recently, viscose staple fiber market has been slightly calm, and overall shipments have not seen much improvement, but the market price reduction has slowed down significantly.

Moreover, with the increase of production restriction and maintenance, viscose staple fiber market is expected to further stabilize the downward trend.

The price of cottonseed will continue to fall little if it is supported by the seed cotton. This will stimulate the stabilization of the cotton lint market, and at the same time, the viscose staple fiber runs at a loss, which is also the reason to stimulate the viscose staple fiber to rise.

In addition, the recent shipments and orders of the cotton yarn market are relatively good, which will give some support to viscose staple fibers from the downstream.

Viscose staple fiber market is expected to be in the end, and continue to decline slightly.