The Yuan'S Intermediate Price Is Lower Than &Nbsp, And The Risk Aversion Pushes The US Dollar Closer To The High Point.

Following the US dollar index breaking through the 88 point mark in June 4th, the US dollar index continued to push the stage higher to 88.71 at the Asian trading session of the international exchange market on Monday. It is only one step away from the high point of 89.62 after the outbreak of the subprime crisis.

Analysts say that risk aversion is expected to push the US dollar strong in the short and medium term, as investors are worried about the two bottom of the world economy and Europe and the US are still in a fog of economic prospect.

For the renminbi exchange rate, most observers believe that the renminbi will remain stable against the US dollar in the short term.

US dollar index to refresh 15 month high

The May employment data released by the US labor department in Beijing on the evening of June 4th showed that the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 431 thousand jobs in the same month. Although the data growth rate has reached a new high in 10 years, it is obviously lower than the 513 thousand jobs expected by the market.

And the new 431 thousand jobs mainly benefited from the increase in public sector posts, while the number of new private sector jobs dropped sharply from 41 thousand in April to 41 thousand in the private sector.

Thus, the employment data of "gold and jade", which directly led to the "gloomy gloomy" of market investors, the three major indexes and major commodities in the United States suffered heavy losses on the same day, while the US dollar index rose 1.25% on a single day driven by risk aversion.

On Monday, after the opening of the international foreign exchange market, the US dollar index continued to expand strongly. The high point of 88.71 points hit a new high of nearly 15 months in 09 years since March 12th. It is less than 1 points from the 89.62 point that the market generally thinks is the "sub prime high point".

In March 4th of 09, the dollar index hit a 3 year high of 89.62 points due to the impact of investor panic over the subprime crisis.

Xie Dongming, an analyst with the overseas Chinese Bank of Singapore, said that the sharp drop in the number of new jobs in the private sector in the US in May once again reminded the market that there is still a lot of instability in the global economic recovery prospects, and a new round of risk aversion is sweeping the market.

He also pointed out that uncertainty is still flooding the market in the light of current market conditions.

Although the European central bank tried to stabilize the yield of the "five pig" bonds by buying bonds, the bond yields of these countries still showed a slight upward trend, and the comments of the Hungarian government on the contradiction between the debt problems showed the tension of the market.

At present, the market is experiencing the phenomenon of bank liquidity recovery and credit crunch. If there is any racket in the new European debt market, it may trigger the market to further sell off risky assets and continue to push up the US dollar.

Strong dollar or trend

As for the latest rise in the US dollar index, Zhou Xiaocang, a foreign exchange trader of Bank of China, believes that the sharp fluctuations in global financial markets on Friday once again showed the pessimistic atmosphere prevailing in the current market.

In the environment where the relevant debt crisis is not fundamentally resolved and the main economic data in the US labor market is still disappointing, the hedging effect will continue to push the US dollar up, and the US dollar index will continue to rise in the short and medium term.

Zhou Xiaocang said that with regard to recent US economic data, the Federal Reserve can not consider raising interest rates when the unemployment rate can not effectively fall below 9.5%.

Therefore, from the current point of view, the rise in the US dollar is still "in the foreseeable future", and the rise of the US dollar at present is still a typical "crisis mode".

While the US dollar was strong, the central parity of the US dollar exchange rate for China's foreign exchange trading center on the 7 day was 1 yuan against the RMB 6.8283 yuan, and the central parity of the RMB exchange rate hit the lowest point since then.

However, observers have said that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will continue to be a stalemate in the short term, and there is no big change in the RMB exchange rate at any time when the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad is facing some uncertainties.

In the current external environment, the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate by the monetary authorities may refer more to the practical experience of the outbreak of the global subprime crisis in 08 years.