Exports In May Were Far Ahead Of Expected &Nbsp, And It Was Difficult To Sustain &Nbsp; Still Faced Multiple Risks.

Customs import and export data released on 10 may show that in May, China

Customs statistics show that from 1 to May, China

In May, China's exports grew by nearly 50% over the same period last year, a figure far exceeding the expectations of about 30% of the previous institutions.

A number of experts told the economic reference daily that the substantial increase in the single month data in May was mainly due to the base effect and the recovery of the United States, Japan and some emerging economies. However, the multiple factors such as the impact of the European debt crisis, rising labor costs and trade frictions have added risks to the trend of the latter period of foreign trade, and the negative effects will gradually become apparent in the second half of the year.

Wang Jinbin, a professor at the school of economics, Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that one of the main reasons for the expected increase in export growth in May was the relatively low base in the same period last year. Last year, 1 to May was the worst export performance in recent years.

In addition, the economic recovery of the United States, Japan and some emerging economies is also the main reason.

Huo Jianguo, President of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that the overall external market rebound has supported the growth of external demand.

China's export figures also confirm the general recovery of the global economy.

"The impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports has not yet emerged.

Generally speaking, it takes 1 to 2 months or even longer for the order contract to be concluded from signing to delivery to final settlement. The export data in May reflect the order contract before March. "

Huo Jianguo further analyzed that the competitiveness of China's manufacturing exports was obvious.

Under the backdrop of huge domestic investment and steady growth of domestic demand, some domestic products have begun to "squeeze out". The export dynamics of domestic enterprises are very strong, which has led to the rapid growth of exports relative to imports.

Zhao Qingming, a research fellow at CCB, believes that the impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports is limited.

China's exports to Europe are mainly consumer products, and the demand elasticity of these products is relatively small.

Moreover, the economic downturn in several European countries is primarily affecting the investment sector, which has relatively little impact on consumption. "Taking into account the overall growth of the European economy as a whole this year, the export market of the EU should be stable as China's largest trading partner."

Zhao Qingming told the economic reference Daily reporter.

It is noteworthy that, even after nearly 50% of the expected growth, "compared with the same period in 2008, we can see that this growth rate is only about half of that between 2005 and 2007."

Wang Jinbin said foreign trade is hard to recover in the short term before the global financial crisis.

Exports will continue to face adverse factors for some time, and high growth will be difficult to sustain.

Wang Jinbin said that the negative impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports will also appear in the future, but its extent depends on the effect of European fiscal debt reconstruction.

If the renminbi continues to appreciate against the euro, it can be expected that this negative effect will begin to appear in the coming months.

"Expected from the third quarter, (European debt crisis on exports) will have a significant impact."

Huo Jianguo said this.

In addition, the rise of labor costs in coastal areas will have a significant negative impact on exports, and export growth in these areas will slow down in the next few years.

The European and American countries' pressure on China's frequent trade relief surveys and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has undoubtedly increased uncertainty for the recovery of exports.

If this trend continues, it will hinder the recovery process of China's exports to a certain extent.

With the approaching of the mid-term elections in Congress, the United States has recently implemented trade remedy measures for Chinese products. Since June, the United States has launched many anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against China's coated paper, potassium phosphate, steel wire laminates and oil drill pipes.

According to Xinhua news agency, Charles Schume, a Democratic senator of the United States, joined several bipartisan members 9 days ago. He said that in the next two weeks, the Senate will vote on a bill on China's exchange rate policy, so as to further strengthen the appreciation of the renminbi.

Also, members pointed out that they were determined to promote legislation so that the US Department of commerce could use anti-dumping duties and other laws to deal with the issue of RMB exchange rate.

Experts pointed out that with the gradual emergence of negative effects in the second half of this year, China's foreign trade growth will gradually slow down, and exports will likely show a trend of high and low levels throughout the year.