"You Are Ruthless With Garlic, You Are Playing With Beans" The Rising Price Of Agricultural Products Affects Textiles

From the end of last year, garlic and pepper were the first to create a legend. After November, garlic prices in Taiyuan, Lanzhou, Nanchang, Nanning, Hangzhou, Beijing and other cities rose to 10 yuan/kg, or even higher. Compared with the same period in 2008, the price of dry pepper per kilogram also rose from 7 yuan to 40 yuan.

The legend of garlic is not flat, and the legend of mung bean keeps up. Since the first quarter of this year, the price of mung beans has soared from 8 yuan to 24 yuan per kilogram in the past, which has driven the prices of all beans and miscellaneous grains to soar.

On the other hand, the rise of agricultural product prices cannot but drive the rise of cotton prices. Since the National Day last year, cotton prices have run wild. At present, cotton prices in major cotton producing areas in Shandong have exceeded the 8 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching the highest level in history.

However, the high cotton prices did not bring enthusiasm to cotton farmers. According to statistics, the cotton planting area in Dezhou, the main cotton producing area in Shandong, dropped to the lowest level in 10 years this year, because more and more cotton farmers began to abandon cotton and switch to other cash crops under the challenge of rising food prices, oil prices and vegetable prices.

Some people say that the rise in the price of agricultural products is a good thing, but the price of farmers when they sell is not very high. At the same time, farmers will be misled by speculators. Because of information errors, farmers are likely to become long-term buyers. Historically, no matter the price of pork or pepper rose, farmers did not get long-term benefits from it.

Just like the tulip bubble in the Netherlands in those days, "you are ruthless with garlic" and "you play with beans" mean that the inflation bubble has spread from the property market and the GEM to the agricultural product market. The so-called garlic and mung beans are just another reaction to the rising prices of agricultural products, inflation expectations and the rising futures prices of agricultural products.

The overall high cotton price and the reduction of cotton planting area indicate that the textile raw materials will be in urgent need sooner or later. Now the high cotton price has affected the price of cotton yarn and grey cloth. Since nearly half a month ago, the domestic grey cloth market has seen a sharp rise, which is the second big rise since March this year. The big rise and the fast rise again exceeded the industry expectations.

In this regard, A famous financial media commentator pointed out that: "In the era of excess liquidity, inflation has different manifestations. The general path is as follows: the prices of asset products, agricultural products and raw materials have risen, which ultimately led to the rise of the prices of consumer goods in the terminal industry. China's current price trend follows this model to the letter. At the beginning, that is, the prices of asset products rose sharply in the first half of 2009, and the house prices throughout the year The price of futures rises sharply; In the medium term, the price of agricultural products rose in the second half of 2009, and the price of gas, water and electricity could not be held back; Now that the price of industrial products has risen, a cycle has been completed, and we can listen to the crisp sound of the bubble bursting. "