Zhengzhou PTA Futures: &Nbsp Is Still Hard To Say; The Rebound Is Highly Limited.

After the PTA slump in May, traders showed signs of small bottom hunting. The price was supported near 7350, and then remained weak for nearly half a month, but the overall trend was weak and weak.

Entering the June, influenced by the international market, PTA futures suffered the first fall this year, and again fell into a narrow oscillation pattern.

The overall rebound in the commodity market in June 9th, the PTA price is also due to a short cut in the stock market.

I believe that the PTA price rebound in the short term can only be treated with a rebound, and will still be dominated by financial attributes in the near future, with a high degree of fear of rebound and a lack of sufficient reasons for the trend reversal.

The central bank will implement moderately loose monetary policy according to the new situation and new situation.

In June 8th, the "2009 China regional financial operation report" issued by the people's Bank of China pointed out that 2010 is the key year to continue to cope with the international financial crisis, maintain steady and rapid economic development and accelerate the pformation of the mode of economic development.

According to the new situation and new situation, the central bank will carry out moderately loose monetary policy and speed up the pformation of economic development mode and economic structure, so as to maintain steady and rapid economic development.

The central bank points out that uncertainties in the international sovereign debt crisis, trade frictions and exit policies will also have an important impact on the development environment of our foreign ministry.

The 1 - year central bank interest rate has risen by nearly 17 basis points for two consecutive weeks. It shows that the central bank still relies on quantitative regulation, and will not relax its efforts to withdraw funds through open market operations.

With the gradual narrowing of the interest rate spread between the 1 year central bank and the medium and long term bonds, and the central bank's no sign of increasing interest rates, the yield of the 1 year central bank ticket issuance is expected to gradually stabilize, and the large number of funds in the central bank's open market will expire to ease the current financial situation.

The eurozone debt crisis has been on the rise.

The outbreak of the Greek debt crisis once caused market anxiety, and global financial market turbulence continued.

Following the downgrade of Portugal and Spain by the S & P, Hungary was also downgraded due to sovereign debt problems, which led to a sharp fall in the US and European stock markets. The euro fell again, making the already panic financial market worse.

Meanwhile, the successive debt crisis in European countries has also raised concerns about the euro. The euro exchange rate has been falling steadily, and even the euro zone is likely to collapse and the euro may die.

Perhaps these arguments are too pessimistic, but the economic outlook of the euro area is undoubtedly a heart of the global economic recovery, and the international financial market is still hard to get out of the predicament.

{page_break} crude oil has stabilized in the short term, but PX has declined too much and PTA support has weakened.

Recently, crude oil has been strongly supported by the $69.5 line.

About $70 is not only an important gateway to the withdrawal of oil prices, but also a very important psychological price.

The steady decline in crude oil inventories has stabilised oil prices near $75, which is highly beneficial to market confidence recovery.

From the perspective of PX, the price difference between PX and naphtha and MX has been running for a long time at a break even point of US $300 / ton and US $180 / ton. Although PX manufacturers have been in a state of deficit for a long time, the price of PX has dropped to a certain level. However, due to the overcapacity of PX, the increase of PX in June is also reasonable.

From the current PX price calculation, PTA production cost is only about 6050 yuan / ton, and PTA production profit is 900 yuan / ton.

It is understood that the normal profit of PTA is around 500 yuan / ton, so the profit of 900/ ton is still at a high level.

The operating rate of the plant is still running high, and the imbalance between supply and demand is becoming more serious in the off-season, and the pressure on warehouse receipts is also increasing.

From the perspective of PTA demand and supply, the domestic output in the first 5 months is 5 million 720 thousand tons, the import volume is 2 million 720 thousand tons, the demand is 7 million 500 thousand tons, the accumulated surplus plus the surplus in 2009, up to now, the total stock of the society should reach more than 1 million 500 thousand tons, which is equivalent to the amount of domestic polyester production capacity for one month.

Later will enter the PTA demand off-season, rely on the procurement cycle to enhance PTA price intensity is limited, and driven by long-term high profit, PTA device operating rate has always been maintained at a high level of more than 90%.

Exchange warehouse receipts data show that the total amount of registered warehouse receipts and effective forecast amounts to 38423 pieces, which is 192 thousand tons, which is less than 1 million 500 thousand tons per month. However, from the historical trend, the number of warehouse receipts is at the same level in 2008, at a historical high level, while the 06, 07, 08, 09 contracts have only more than 100 thousand hands. In September, PTA registered warehouse receipts are facing centralized cancellation, and the ratio of virtual to real is relatively high.

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Capital market and technology

At present, the strength of PTA shorts is weakened, and the desire to liquidate profits is strong. After the overfall, it has rebounded, and all the technical indicators are also in a weak oversold area, and there is a demand for repair in the short term.

In addition, from the perspective of investment psychology, early PTA long main force was locked up, after the recent rebound in the market, the number of bulls was significantly reduced, and the weakness in the PTA medium term has not been changed, and the rebound strength needs to be observed.

The author thinks that the market will change the space in time, and there will be momentum again after the match.

In conclusion, in the cooperation of crude oil and A share market, PTA price has rebounded and adjusted demand.

However, due to the unsatisfactory macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, the PTA industry has entered the low demand season. Under the background of increasingly severe oversupply, the price of PTA is still hard to say.

The 7330-7410 area pressure at the bottom of the last round of the platform is worthy of attention.