June 13, Ministry Of Commerce: The Negative Effects Of European Debt Crisis On China'S Exports To China In The Coming Months Or The Gradual Emergence Of Bad News

At a regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce in June 12th, press spokesman Yao Jian said, according to customs statistics, the total value of imports and exports was $1 trillion and 100 billion 90 million in 1-5 months, up 44 over the same period last year.

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Of which, exports amounted to 567 billion 740 million US dollars, an increase of 33.2%; imports of US $532 billion 350 million, an increase of 57.5%; trade surplus of US $35 billion 390 million, a decrease of 59.9%.

In May, import and export value was $243 billion 990 million, an increase of 48.4%.

Among them, exports amounted to 131 billion 760 million US dollars, an increase of 48.5%, and imports of US $112 billion 230 million, an increase of 48.3%.

The trade surplus amounted to US $19 billion 530 million in that month.

The import and export situation in 1-5 months has the following main characteristics:

First, import and export continued the trend of recovery growth.

Since November 2009, imports and exports have resumed 7 months of recovery growth. On the basis of the same period of decline in the same period last May, a substantial recovery growth was achieved in May this year.

Compared with the 1-5 months before the financial crisis, imports and exports, exports and imports increased by 8.5%, 4% and 13.6% respectively in 2008.

The two is the rapid development of my trade with emerging markets.

In 1-5 months, my exports to emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, ASEAN, South Africa and India were higher than the total export growth rate of 65.2, 20.6, 13, 11.2 and 4.9 percentage points respectively.

Especially since the establishment of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, ASEAN has surpassed Japan as the third largest trading partner.

In 1-5 months, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN increased by 57.5%, of which China's imports from ASEAN were faster than exports and China's deficit was 6 billion 400 million US dollars.

Three, the impact of the European debt crisis is not yet fully apparent.

In 1-5 months, my exports to the EU grew by 34.4%, and the impact of the European debt crisis has not yet been revealed.

Because the order contract from signing, shipment to export settlement, at least 2 months or even longer, May export data reflects the order contract before March.

In the next few months, the negative effects of the European debt crisis on China's foreign trade may gradually emerge.

Four, export growth accelerated in the same month, but the annual situation is still not optimistic.

In the month of May, China's foreign trade exports increased rapidly, which reflected the overall recovery of international market demand. The World Bank released the 2010 global economic outlook forecast in June 10th. The global GDP2010 and 2011 will increase in the range of 2.9%-3.3%, which is higher than that predicted at the beginning of this year.

But the foundation of world economic recovery is still not stable.

As the main traditional market in China, the recovery of developed countries is slower than that of emerging markets. The unstable factors such as the European sovereign debt crisis will restrict the pace of global economic recovery.

The increase of raw material prices and labor costs will also restrict the international competitiveness of China's products.

In the month of May, China's foreign trade surplus increased considerably. However, due to the continuous recovery of China's economy, the policy effect of expanding imports will be further manifested, and imports will continue to maintain rapid growth.