In The Two Quarter, Credit Demand Shrank By &Nbsp; Analysts Said The Rate Hike Was Expected To Weaken.

Micro change of credit supply and demand to solve 7 trillion and 500 billion objectives defending war

It is hard to say that the supply and demand of credit in the two quarter is distinctly different from that in the first quarter, but subtle changes are indeed in the dark and may be far-reaching.

From the very tight queuing of loans in the first quarter to the delicate weakness of credit demand in the two quarter, this change is quite impressive, but the span is only a month away.

Behind this change, there are worries that the regulatory authorities are worried about local financing platform loans and strict control, and the confusion of the "not tame" property market after being regulated.

Then, how will the banking industry, which is facing subtle changes in demand, defend the new credit target of about 7 trillion and 500 billion of the whole year? Where should the future policy go?

Credit demand changes slightly

The credit market in 2010 seemed destined to be unpredictable.

Just now, the market clamor for tight supply of credit funds in the first quarter is still on the ear. In the two quarter, banks seem to have a slight turning point to usher in another scene of undercurrent.

The credit demand of a joint-stock bank, which had been "monitored" by the regulators in the first quarter, was quite a "cold case" in May.

"In May, the loans of our branch were negative growth, and there were some growth in medium and long-term loans, but short-term loans were negative and bills were negative."

The joint-stock bank branch told reporters that the "negative growth" should not be limited to its branch.

Also in April, the person told our reporter that because of the excessive credit supply in the first quarter, the bank implemented a more stringent "ten day regulation" to control the pace of delivery, that is, the rhythm of credit delivery was strictly controlled by the "ten day" smaller time unit.

Before that, the market has been widely rumored that regulators should balance the pace of credit placement, requiring commercial banks to follow the annual "3322" quarterly delivery rhythm, while the quarter follows the "442" release rhythm.

And the bank is more meticulous to the "442" of the "ten day rhythm" to implement more stringent control.

After a lapse of more than a month, the bank's "strict control" was relaxed once demand was less than expected.

"Current demand is basically satisfied, and control is not as strict as before."

The source said.

People who share similar feelings are few.

Another branch of a state-owned bank told reporters that although there is no obvious feeling that demand is shrinking, the control of credit lines in the two quarter is not as stringent as in the first quarter.

And in the first quarter, the strict control of note financing was relaxed again in the two quarter.

In 2 and March, our reporter kept track of the credit situation of a branch of the above state bank. At that time, the person said that the amount was tight. Only a few days before the beginning of the month, there was a limit to it. And because of the amount control, a rough estimate of about 2000000000 of the credit demand was not met, let alone meet the demand for paper financing.

"Now, except for a small amount of bills less than 1 million, the demand for note financing has been approved basically, and the interest rate for note financing has dropped from 5.5% to a little more than 3% at present."

This person said to our newspaper in late May.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of China, who went to Shandong, Jiangxi and Henan in May, was also told at the top level of the local credit management that the demand for credit is obviously not as strong as the first quarter of three.

In fact, the subtle change of credit demand appeared as early as April.

The central bank statistics show that in April, the financing of financial institutions ended with a 9 month decrease in July, an increase of 47 billion yuan.

In the first quarter of this year, the financing of all financial institutions was reduced by 624 billion 700 million yuan.

The resurgence of bill financing is considered to be a reflection of the poor demand of the real economy.

As Lian Ping said, if the real economy is booming, why should banks use limited resources to make notes?

It can be said that many banks in the first quarter are early and early season rush targets.

In the two quarter, the situation in some banks reversed.

In a media interview, a large group of people said that May was the end of the month impulse completion index, and some banks had to reopen the bill.

The scale of paper financing, which includes 47 billion yuan, was 774 billion yuan in April, while the latest data released by the central bank showed that in May, compared with April, the new RMB loans decreased by 134 billion 600 million yuan to 639 billion 400 million yuan, and the scale of note financing increased by 37 billion 700 million yuan in that month, which is a positive growth in second months since April.

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Main reason: demand is suppressed.

The stricter control of the local financing platform loans and the new deal in the property market are considered to be the main reasons for the shrinking demand for some banks' credit.

According to the aforementioned joint-stock banks, the reason for the negative growth of the new RMB loans in May is one of the main reasons for the maturity of some local financing platform loans. According to the new policy, some of them are uncertain whether it will be renewed and the other part has been determined to not be renewed.

At the same time, the construction of the local financing platform project follow-up fund demand is not high, and the new government financing platform project is now strictly controlled.

In the first quarter of this year, the bank's government financing platform accounted for 30%-40% of new loans, although it has dropped sharply compared with the 60% share of the same period last year, but it still occupied almost half of the credit scale.

As a result, the impact of strict restrictions on local financing platform loans is immediate.

According to the source, this year the branch plans to add RMB loans to around 4 billion, while the government loan platform for the government is expected to be 2 billion. There is a certain amount of loans that will not be renewed. Therefore, considering the gap of the financing platform loans to mature, the actual increment should reach 4 billion 500 million -50 billion this year.

Because government projects usually have a large amount of capital and are in the hundreds of millions of dollars, the person said that if the current SME loan is to make up for this expired gap, a lot of SME loan demand reserves will be needed, and after the approval of the loan requirements of the entities, these enterprises will not be able to use the money immediately, so the shortfall in the short term can not be completely restored.

At the same time, the real economy has not yet fully recovered, and the external demand has not reached the peak of history.

Liu Yuhui, director of the center for economic evaluation of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also told reporters that although the order of enterprises has risen, due to the rising price of raw materials and the rise of labor costs, the profits of enterprises are very thin. Enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are not very willing to expand their production capacity. Meanwhile, under the influence of the European debt crisis, enterprises are also worried about the customers' ability to pay in the future, all of which affect the capital demand of enterprises.

However, the above joint-stock banks said that "negative growth" should be only a phased passive situation, and banks will encounter similar problems.

According to reports, according to the CBRC caliber, 40% of new loans in the first quarter of this year still went to the local financing platform.

The information provided by a branch of a state-owned bank to a reporter shows that nearly half of the bank's new loans in the first quarter have invested in government related projects.

Regardless of whether these items should be classified into the current strictly controlled local financing platform project loans, this proportion reflects at least the current bank's dependence on the government's background projects.

As a result, the negative growth of new loans in May may not be a case.

The new property market is another important reason why some banks feel that the demand for credit has shrunk.

In April 16th, the new property market came out, and it was clear that a more stringent differentiated housing credit policy should be implemented.

For families who purchase the first set of housing and have more than 90 square meters of floor space, the ratio of the first payment of loans should not be less than 30%. For families who purchase second housing loans, the proportion of the first payment should not be less than 50%, the interest rate of loans should not be less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate, and the proportion of the first payment and the interest rate will be substantially increased for the third or more housing loans.

Recently, the identification of the two suites is clearly defined as "recognition of housing and recognition of loans".

The introduction of a series of policies has a great impact on the demand for real estate and real estate loans.

According to a report released by China Index Research Institute, the volume of commercial housing in major cities in the whole country fell in May, with a total decrease of about 44%.

Among them, Suzhou has the largest decrease of 77.75%.

Under the influence of regulatory policies, the development enterprises generally lowered their expected expectations. In May, the residential land pactions in the whole country continued to slump.

According to the report of the China Index Research Institute, 188 residential land pactions were completed in 70 key cities nationwide in May, a decrease of 14%, a decrease of 11% compared with the same period last year, and 13 million 470 thousand square meters of land area, 13% less than the same period, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

The volume of commercial housing and the reduction of residential land pactions will inevitably affect personal housing mortgage loans and real estate development loans.

According to the central bank statistics, in the first quarter of this year, major financial institutions and rural cooperative financial institutions and urban credit cooperatives increased RMB yuan loans by 845 billion 700 million yuan.

Among them, the real estate development loan increased by 320 billion 700 million yuan, and the personal housing loan increased by 522 billion 700 million yuan.

In the first quarter of this year, the total amount of new RMB loans was 2 trillion and 600 billion, so that only 33% of the new RMB loans for real estate were accounted for.

If the local financing platform accounts for 40% of the new loans in the first quarter, as reported by the media, two plus loans will occupy more than 70% of the new loans in the first quarter.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that when the spearhead is directed at the local financing platform and real estate, the banks that rely heavily on the two banks will feel deeply.

"Real estate control, related to a dozen industries, capital demand will be affected."

The joint-stock banks are quite helpless about the current demand for credit.

Fortunately, the branch had not intervened in real estate loans in the past, but the person also said that the new deal had a great impact on its personal housing mortgage loan.

Another joint-stock bank's Gold Division also told our reporter that the policy was so strict that no one dared to touch the high voltage line, and the personal housing mortgage loan of the bank was also greatly reduced due to the new deal.

In May 4th, CITIC Securities issued a research report on the scale and investment analysis of the impact of the new deal on real estate. It is estimated that if the two quarter's new credit is 2 trillion and 100 billion, the proportion of development loans and mortgage loans will be greatly reduced by the impact of policies. The loan to development ratio is assumed to be 5%-12%, and the increment of mortgage loans will account for 8%-15%. The two increments in the two quarter will be reduced by 276 billion 400 million -5704 billion yuan in the first quarter.

Uncertainties are increasing.

The official announcement of PMI in May dropped 1.8 percentage points to 53.9%, and HSBC PMI dropped 2.5 percentage points to 52.7, slowing for second consecutive months.

Lu commissar believes that the expansion of production scale in May is still relatively fast compared with the same period, indicating that industrial production is still strong this month, but the backlog orders fell sharply to below 50. The upward trend of the finished product inventory index of the reverse index is high, indicating that the industrial production has expanded from the previous strong expansion, but the purchasing volume index, import index and raw material inventory index are significantly lower than the average value of the calendar year, indicating that the overall forecast for the future is still optimistic.

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SMEs are not cheap.

Local financing platform loans and real estate related loans are suppressed, a theoretical speculation is that these vacant quotas should shift to other areas, such as small and medium-sized enterprises.

CITIC Securities, which is expected to shrink from real estate related loans, is either replaced by loans from other industries or replaced by non loan interest bearing assets such as bond investments.

With tight credit this year, local financing platform loans have been severely restricted, and this part of the loans may flow to SMEs and emerging industries, or bond investment.

One possible consequence of this deduction is that the loan resources available to SMEs should be increased.

But two Guarantee Corporation reporters interviewed gave the reporter a completely opposite answer in his imagination.

"No sense of small and medium enterprises to get loans and the interest rate changes, SME loans are still very strong, still difficult."

A senior Guarantee corporation executive expressed surprise at the reporter's question of whether credit demand has shrunk and whether the situation is good for SMEs.

Yang Fuhua, assistant general manager of Company limited by guarantee investment bank, told reporters that there was no sense of shrinkage in credit demand. In fact, due to scale restrictions, banks had more stringent requirements for enterprises.

According to him, the current bank lending rate for SMEs should be raised by 10%-25% on the base of the benchmark interest rate, and some even rise by 30%.

Theoretically speaking, the suppression of local financing platforms and real estate loans will release part of the quota theoretically. However, due to the limited scale of new projects and the limited project loans that have not yet expired, the release of the quota will take a limited time.

Therefore, SME loans have not been eased.

One of the above branches of the state-owned bank also said that although the control over the two quarter was more relaxed than the first quarter, and more than a million of the demand for paper financing could also be satisfied, the difficulty of approving and approving small business loans was still very large, and there were documents in the line. The loan interest rate for small businesses should be guaranteed to float 10%-15%, and small businesses were still very short of money.

As for whether or not a portion of interest rates will be sacrificed to attract more SME loans to make up for the shortfall of the local financing platform loan after expiration, the joint-stock banks also say that, in general, credit resources are still relatively scarce this year, and will not exceed the abandonment of revenue to win business scale.

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7 trillion and 500 billion, there should be no danger of achieving goals.

The demand is suppressed, so that about 7 trillion and 500 billion of the annual new RMB loan target can be realized as a suspense.

"The European debt crisis and real estate regulation all occurred after mid April, so the impact may be reflected in the three quarter, and will affect investment and further affect capital demand."

Lian Ping thinks.

CITIC Securities said in its research report that there will be some reduction in credit increments throughout the year.

However, most of the experts interviewed by reporters and bankers were more optimistic.

The joint-stock bankers said to this reporter that although the branch's loan growth was negative in May, he still said that it was no problem reaching the standard.

In fact, the trend of these policies is expected in the early days. The regulatory authorities have begun to clean up loans for local financing platform of commercial banks in March. Therefore, they are also aware of the current situation.

There is no way to do this. At the end of the year, we can do some bills.

At the same time, not all banks in all regions are in unanimous demand.

The senior bank of a joint stock bank in Qingdao wondered whether the credit demand of our correspondent was shrinking. He said: "our credit demand is very good, and it is not enough for venture assets."

And this person from the local government held a joint meeting of commercial banks to understand the situation is that most of Qingdao's industry is not enough risk assets.

According to the person's view, the situation that caused the bank to supply less than needed is mainly due to the relatively full reserve of the bank's projects. Therefore, from 1 to April, it has been queuing up for loans and queuing up in May.

To cope with this situation, one of their strategies is to recover some assets with low risk, that is, to recover the real interest rate with appropriate float down on the basis of the benchmark interest rate, and to make way for the riskier assets with higher returns.

The source said that in the fourth quarter of last year, the bank had already reserved a number of projects, leaving it this year, and most of the reserve loans came from the financing needs of enterprises. This is also the reason why the branch's credit funds remained tense as regulators tightened local financing platform loans and real estate loans, and real estate control led to a decrease in credit demand.

Therefore, he believes that the specific feelings of each bank will be different. It depends on the project structure of each bank reserve. If the local financing platform and the real estate loan project account for the majority, then under the control background, the natural feeling is the lack of credit demand.

In the interview with our reporter, a senior bank of Minsheng Bank also said that despite the fact that there was insufficient demand in the exchange with the industry, the feeling of the bank was that the scale had been very tense.

According to its statement, the bank has made great efforts in structural adjustment this year. One way is to press big customers and small and micro businesses. This year, the bank's new lending quota of 60% has been extended to small and medium enterprises and small and micro enterprises.

Because of its internal restructuring, the bank did not feel that credit demand had shrunk.

Societe Generale Bank senior economist Lu political commissar further believes that if demand really atrophy, the future policy may also moderate fine-tuning, it is possible that local financing platform loan control will not be as strict as it is now, for example, the "no government backing (no guarantee), no mortgage, no self liquidating cash flow" of three no local financing platform loans may not let go, other may relax.

In addition, real estate may not be the same as it is now, but a more stable regulation. Therefore, Lu commissar believes that 7 trillion and 500 billion of the year's new loan target should not be a big problem.

Lian Ping also believes that if the European debt crisis does not deepen in the second half of the year, the US economy will gain a 7 trillion and 500 billion target if it goes into the uptrend, and in fact, the 7 trillion and 500 billion target set at the beginning of the year may leave room for the actual demand may not be limited to this, and for the current situation, it will probably fall to about 7 trillion and 500 billion, not too obvious contraction.

Zhao Qingming, senior research fellow at CCB, believes that less credit demand will ease the situation of tight credit funds, but he still believes that 7 trillion and 500 billion of the new credit target can still be completed throughout the year, because for banks, the amount is very important. When there is no quota, the bank will do everything possible to complete the task and do everything possible to accomplish it.

In an interview with the media, Li Lihui, President of the Bank of China, said that from the absolute amount of credit, the 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan credit growth was indeed relatively high, but this is to cope with the international financial crisis and ensure the effectiveness of the package of economic stimulus measures. He believes that the target of 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan credit growth is matched with the GDP growth rate of China's projected 8%-10%.

There will not be much discrepancy in the whole year's actual credit and the 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan target set at the beginning of the year. It may increase or decrease, but it will not be excessive.

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Policy or observation period

The subtle changes in credit demand make policy adjustment face more uncertainties.

A number of experts interviewed by reporters said that we should now enter the observation period of the policy adjustment effect, and it is unlikely to relax again.

"At the beginning of the year, the economy is hot, but now the policy adjustment makes the possibility of the economy becoming too hot. The question is whether the intensity is bigger, such as whether the real estate regulation is too big.

Lian Ping believes that the rate hike is not so strong now, and that the policy should enter the observation period without any more stringent measures.

In fact, the decrease in credit demand is more reflected in the demand of regulators for local financing platforms and real estate regulation.

"The demand of physical enterprises has not been static.

Regulators are unlikely to relax the regulation of local financing platforms and real estate. "

Liu Yuhui believes that now we should enter the observation period, stop and stop, take a look, and decide on how to go next.

Liu Yuhui believes that to adjust, the government may prefer to use administrative means, such as specific measures to tighten up the local financing platform and real estate, rather than using the tools of capital price to adjust, such as interest rates and exchange rates.

Zhao Qingming, who holds similar views, believes that the policy should be in a stable period now. The possibility of tightening policies is not large. The possibility of raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates is decreasing.

But the possibility of relaxation is also small, because the rate of falling house prices has not yet reached the intended purpose.