In The Past Ten Years, China Has Seen Three Negative Interest Rates &Nbsp; PK 3:0 Speculation.

18 New York gold

In May, the consumer price rose by 3.1%, and the interest rate pattern was further formed over a two-year deposit interest rate.

How to keep money in the era of negative interest rates?

Historical experience shows that in the main investment mode, gold investment is far outperforming stock market investment in the era of negative interest rate.

In May, China's consumer price (CPI) rose by 3.1% over the same period, further widened the gap between the one-year interest rate and the 2.25% bank deposit interest rate, and continued the savings of residents.

Considering that China's rate hike is generally 17 basis points once, the current one-year fixed deposit rate is 2.25%, even if it continues to raise interest rates for five times, it will achieve 3.1% inflation rate, and the probability of five consecutive increases in interest rates is very low.

At present, the negative interest rate has reached 0.85%, and 561 billion 500 million yuan in the country's 66 trillion and 70 billion yuan deposit has actually been evaporated by inflation.

People usually think that the money will be devalued in the negative interest rate, so we must invest boldly.

But this view is open to question.

China's stock market with a market value of 20 trillion yuan has been proved to be the easiest market to fall when negative interest rates appear.

The reason is that the high interest rate is usually the main feature of the negative interest rate era. The government is expected to tighten its policies and shrink the economy.

Another major investment channel, gold, has proved to be an anti inflation product.

In addition, some high-yield corporate bonds can also outperform inflation.

Negative interest rate period 1 (November 2003 ~2004 December)

Stock market innovation low gold rose 21%

In February 21, 2002, the bank's one-year fixed deposit rate was 1.98%, but only 2.25% after October 29, 2004. But in the first quarter of 2004, CPI rose by 2.8%, CPI in April 2004 was 3.8%, and August was 5.3% in August.

From November 2003 to 2004, China's one-year deposit rate is actually in the "negative interest rate" period in the 14 months. The real interest rate of bank deposits in August 2004 reached a minimum of -3.32%, the highest in December 2004, and the real interest rate also reached -0.15%.

It does not calculate 20% interest rate tax.

At this stage, the residents assume that 1 million yuan will be put into the bank regularly, and the highest annual loss will be more than 33200 yuan, and the lowest loss will be 1500 yuan.

If the public thinks that the positive investment in financial management from November 2003 to December 2004 will be the best policy, it will be more likely to increase the loss.

Because in April 2004, China's A shares fell from 1744 points, all the way to 998 lows in 2005, until September 30, 2006 only to recover 1755 points, which lasted for 5 years.

It is worth noting that the A share rose by 25% during the period from November 2003 to March 2004 when negative interest rates started.

But the whole rise only accounts for 35% of the "negative interest rate" time.

In the gold market, from November 2003 to 2004 December, the international gold price rose from 376.4 US dollars to US $455.9, rising by (455.9-376.4) /376.4 * 100%=21%, which successfully outperformed inflation.

Negative interest rate period two (February 2007 ~2008 October)

A shares fell 33% gold rose 18%

From February 2007 to November 2008, China's CPI rose to the highest level of 8.7% (February 2008), while the one-year deposit rate was only 4.14%, and the negative interest rate was as high as 4.14%-8.7%=-4.56%, or 1 million yuan in the bank. The actual loss in one year amounted to 45600 yuan.

Until October 2008, CPI rose 4%, up from 3.87% and 3.6% in one year.

Compared with 2744 in February 2007 and 1820 in October 2008, A shares fell by 33%.

At the initial stage of negative interest rate, that is, from February 2007 to October 2007, China's A shares rose from 2744 to 5954, or 216%.

But from November 2007 to December 2008, A shares fell from 5978 to 1820, or 70%.

But in the same period, the change of international gold price was (US $782 -663 US dollars) /663 US $100%=18%.

Therefore, gold can be seen to win inflation again at second negative interest rates.

Negative interest rate period three (March 2010 to date)

A shares fell 17% gold rose 10%

In March 2010, China's CPI reached 2.4%, the first time it exceeded the one-year fixed deposit rate of 2.25%. Up to now, the negative interest rate has continued to this day.

With the increase of CPI in May, negative interest rates have been expanded to 2.25%-3.1%=-0.85%, that is, residents deposit 1 million yuan into banks, and their losses have reached 8500 yuan a year.

Since March, China's A share has fallen from 3111 points to 2560 points, or 17%.

On the gold market, the international gold price was $1119.24 in March 1st this year. The international gold price closed yesterday was US $1232.2, during which gold rose by (1232.2-1119.24) /1119.24 * 100%=10%.

Financial advice

Gold can be bought by callback.

Considering that China's negative interest rate usually lasts for more than a year, the negative interest rate can not be taken lightly.

At present, how to manage money? The advice of experts is that the economy is uncertain, and we should be cautious and open source and do well in saving money.

First, it is possible to buy some bank financial products with short term guaranteed capital in three months. With the possibility of increasing interest rates in the future, the yield and interest rates of financial products will increase, so the current financial management should be short-term.

For example, at present, many banks, such as Bank of China and ICBC, have more than three months' earnings from financial products in the same period.

Two, take advantage of low price returns to buy gold products.

Three, buy high-yield corporate bonds.

Hongyuan securities advanced analysis normal school (blog) believes that China's low-level corporate credit debt is not a real risk, so far there has been no breach of contract, such as 08 Changxin debt, the remaining 3 years, the annual yield of 6.1%.

But China's treasury bond yields are too low to resist inflation.

Four, we should be cautious in investing in the stock market.

(source of this article: Dayang Net - Chen Hailing, Guangzhou daily)