The global financial crisis in 2008 once slowed down the pace of exchange rate reform in China. RMB rate It has narrowed the fluctuation appropriately, and even once implemented the fact. " Peg " Dollar strategy 。 Two years later, this month Nineteen On the occasion, a spokesman for the people's Bank of China said: " According to the domestic and international economic and financial situation and China's balance of payments situation, the central bank has decided to further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility. " This marks a restarting of RMB exchange rate reform.
From the current point of view, the pace of RMB appreciation has been reopened, after the central bank reiterated the second trading days after the reunification. Twenty-two The central parity of RMB against the US dollar has reached a close. Five The new high in the past year. This has to arouse our concern about the development of the industry. At this stage, China's textile industry is in a critical period of increasing cost pressures and weak production and investment recovery. The revaluation of the RMB will undoubtedly bring greater negative impact on the industry. It is expected that the export recovery of China's textile and clothing products will slow down in the second half of the year.
Foreign exchange reform leads industry development concerns again
RMB has gone through 1981~1993 Two track system in 2003. 1994~1997 Year's single managed floating exchange rate system, 1998~2005 The actual dollar fixation system in 2003. Two thousand and five year Seven month ~2008 year Seven Monthly reference basket management floating exchange rate system, Two thousand and eight year Seven month ~2010 year Six The monthly real focus is on the US dollar system. All previous adjustments to the RMB exchange rate system have attracted wide attention both at home and abroad. And this month Nineteen On the 2nd, the central bank announced that it will continue to push forward the reform of the currency exchange system and resume the renminbi. Exchange rate flexibility A new reference to a basket of currencies has undoubtedly aroused global concern again.
This exchange reform emphasizes that we should adhere to the market supply and demand and adjust with reference to a basket of currencies to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate. Of course, logically speaking, " Enhancing RMB exchange rate flexibility " It must consist of upward adjustment and downward adjustment. However, judging from the current situation at home and abroad, the appreciation of RMB is expected to increase significantly. From the actual situation, after the announcement of the exchange rate reform, the pace of RMB appreciation has really taken off. According to relevant data, the central bank reiterated the second trading days after the reunification (that is, this month). Twenty-two The central parity of RMB against the US dollar went up. Six point eight zero Yuan Guan pass Six point seven nine eight zero Yuan, set up Two thousand and five year Seven The new high since the month of reform Twenty-one Diurnal Six point eight two seven five Rise to Twenty-two Diurnal Six point seven nine eight zero Just one day, the appreciation is near. 0.43% 。 This has to arouse our concern about the recovery of the industry's exports.
The trend of RMB to us dollar intermediate price this year
?
Source: the people's Bank of China
In our analysis, we have repeatedly pointed out that the appreciation of RMB will further weaken the export competitiveness of the entire textile and garment industry, and accelerate international orders to Vietnam, India, Pakistan and other neighboring countries. Not only will China's textile export enterprises suffer losses from foreign exchange settlement, loss of profits, export orders and other losses, it will also affect the industry to absorb social employment. The competitiveness of domestic textile and garment products will also increase as the recovery rate slows down.
Textile export recovery will slow down or slow down
At present, China's textile industry's export recovery rate is still relatively fast. According to our customs data, Two thousand and ten year 1~5 In June, China's total exports of textiles and clothing amounted to Seven hundred and twenty-two Point Zero Five Billion dollars, an increase year on year 19.52% The cumulative export growth rate continued to accelerate in the first few months, with textile growth year-on-year. 29.53% Clothing grew year-on-year 13.12% 。 However, judging from the reasons for the current growth of industrial exports and the pressure it faces, we believe that at present, industry exports are growing rapidly on the basis of low export base in the same period last year, and the rapid performance of their export recovery is not sustainable.
First of all, the demand power of the international market is not sustainable, and the real demand recovery has not yet been formed, and when will the replenishment power continue to become the industry's concern. Through the brutal inventory process during the financial crisis, the inventory compensation is inevitable in the process of economic recovery. Strong demand for inventory compensation in developed economies such as the US and Europe has become an important driving force for the export of China's textile industry at this stage. According to the US Department of commerce data, Two thousand and ten year Four Us business inventories continue to grow in June 0.39% Manufacturing sector inventory growth 0.51% However, both the growth rate of the commercial inventory and the growth rate of the inventory in the manufacturing sector showed a slowing trend. At present, the demand for replenishment of commercial and industrial enterprises in developed economies is still continuing, and will continue to play a stimulating role in the export of China's textile and clothing products. However, with the gradual weakening of replenishment power in the international market, its positive pulling effect will continue to shrink. The European debt crisis, Japan's economy is still sluggish, and US retail data are in the doldrums. Five The unexpected monthly decline has become an important concern for us when we need to recover the real demand in the international market.
Us business and manufacturing inventory sales ratio
?
Source: US Department of Commerce
Secondly, the pressure on the cost of raw materials is too high. Although some export products have partially released the excessive upward pressure on the price of raw materials through the way of raising product prices, the pressure brought about by the unsynchronized price transmission is very limited. According to the relevant data, Six month Twenty-three Japan, China Three hundred and twenty-eight Grade domestic cotton has risen to Eighteen thousand and eighty-nine element / Tons, more Two thousand and ten At the beginning of the year 21.57% 。 According to our customs data, Two thousand and ten year Four In September, the price of textile yarn exported by our country is higher than that of this year. One The month has risen. 5.88% The price of textile fabrics is higher than that of this year. One Monthly rise 7.77% 。 It can be seen that the cost pressure problem of textile enterprises is very prominent at present.
In addition, the current industry development is also faced with problems such as shortage of labor resources, rapid increase in labor costs, rising fuel power costs, and many uncertainties in the international trade environment. At the moment, we have restarted the RMB exchange rate reform, which will undoubtedly cast a shadow over the prospects for the recovery of the industry's exports. It is expected that the export recovery of China's textile and clothing products will slow down in the second half of the year.
Here, we must remind the vast majority of textile exporting enterprises to diversify their export markets, speed up the pace of product innovation and development, actively increase the added value of products, and choose financial instruments to avoid trade risk, so as to guard against the consequent trade risks.
