The Bistable Policy In 2010

In the Sixth China economic growth and economic security strategy forum held recently, Yu Bin, Minister of macroeconomic research of the State Council Development Research Center, said that in the fourth quarter of this year, China's economic growth is expected to exceed 10%, and will reach a higher level in the first quarter of next year.

However, he also pointed out that the inflation pressure in 2010 should be taken seriously. Next year's macroeconomic policy should adopt a policy of "bistability" for economic growth and price levels.

Yu Bin believes that as a result of the gradual emergence of the package economic stimulus plan, which has promoted the growth of investment and household consumption, coupled with market driven, these two factors have led to a rapid recovery of China's economy in the global general downturn this year. The 2009 annual economic growth can exceed 8% of the expected target, and is expected to reach 8.5%.

"I think the fourth quarter is expected to exceed 10%, because last year's fourth quarter only 6.8% growth.

And the first quarter of next year will reach a higher level.

But he also said that the short-term increase in economic growth does not mean that the factors that support China's economic growth are increasing and its driving force is increasing.

"Part of the reason is statistical, because last year's statistical base was relatively low."

According to Yu Bin, although China's internal and external economic development will be better than this year's overall situation next year, China's economic development will still face risks and challenges such as the decline in consumption growth and inflation pressure in 2010.

In particular, he emphasized that inflation should be taken seriously in 2010.

"Although it is difficult for us to ascertain the extent of the price increase in 2010, we should pay attention to this issue and prepare for macroeconomic policy."

Yu Bin said that the macroeconomic policy of 2010 should adopt the "bistable" policy of economic growth and price level, so as to stabilize economic growth and prevent economic growth from falling again.

For this reason, Yu Bin suggested that most of the investment, including government investment projects, should be put in the two quarter next year to prevent economic growth from falling again.

He thinks that the target of economic growth next year will be around 8%.

"Although conditions are also possible to achieve a higher growth rate, the higher growth rate is not conducive to the pformation of development mode, and is also not conducive to the realization of energy saving and emission reduction targets, so we believe that about 8% of economic growth will be enough."

In addition, he believed that prices should be stabilized, and CPI would be kept at around 3%, so as to prevent prices and asset prices from rising too fast.

"We should focus more on key areas and economic restructuring.

Only by making major breakthroughs in structural adjustment can we lay a good foundation for the long-term economic development in the future.