Ten Conjectures Of Economic Policy

Looking back at the extraordinary 2009, sweeping the globe. financial crisis China's economy took the lead in recovery. Under the difficulty of the lifting of the restrictions on the sale of shares, the A share market has made a brilliant response. Looking at the 2010, there are many variables in China's economic, policy and A share market trends, which make people full of reverie.

　　 Conjecture 1 inflation or beyond expectations

So far, most mainstream economists believe that inflation in China will be "moderate inflation" this year, and CPI will not increase by more than 2% throughout the year. But such consistent expectations are likely to become the biggest variables. At present, China's real estate market and stock market have obvious "asset inflation". In the real economy, CPI has shifted from negative to positive. inflation Signs have emerged.

Not long ago, Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, told reporters that in 2010, China's CPI inflation rate had great room for floating. As long as the price of agricultural products and housing related consumption increased a lot, this year's CPI exceeded 4%, reaching 5%.

　　 Conjecture 2 export or dark horse

In the near future, "the mainland's imports from Japan and South Korea", FDI, trade prepayment, and other three major indicators of export have reversed sharply. These three leading indicators have always been a barometer of import and export trade. In the second half of 2008, the three indicators declined sharply, and then the import and export trade showed a two digit negative growth for several consecutive months. The reversal of the three leading indicators will be the emergence of future exports from the mainland of China. Substantial growth Important signs. Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International, said that exports could recover by 95% in 2010, which would be a positive contribution to economic growth. Vice Minister of Commerce Zijin Mountain also said that China's import and export resumption of growth in 2010 is entirely possible.

At present, most of the domestic mainstream forecasts are not optimistic about exports, exports will rise strongly and become the "dark horse" of economic growth in 2010.

　　 Conjecture 3 two quarter or raise interest rate

With the recovery of the global economy, the anticipation of raising interest rates is increasing. Australia, Israel, Norway and other countries have taken the lead in stepping up the interest rate cycle. Ma Jun, chief economist of Greater China in Deutsche Bank, said that in the past, the Fed would also raise interest rates after the unemployment rate reached 6 months. According to this estimate, the Fed is likely to announce a rise in interest rates in the middle of 2010 or the three quarter. Li Jing, managing director of JP Morgan, said recently that the Central Bank of China is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate in the middle of 2010, and will raise interest rates two times or 27 basis points throughout the year. Goldman Sachs said that with the gradual withdrawal of loose fiscal policy, the Central Bank of China will raise its nominal benchmark interest rate by 81 basis points in 2010, 27 basis points per time, and the first rate hike is likely to be in the second quarter of 2010.

　　 Conjecture 4 the scale of credit is slightly reduced.

The scale of credit in 2010 has also become the focus of market speculation. The latest version is that the scale of credit in 2010 is roughly 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan. It is understood that in the recently held central economic work conference, this data has been basically set.

Analysis of the industry, although the size of the loan of 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan appears to be significantly lower than the level of nearly 10 trillion yuan in 2009, but considering that in 2009 did not enter the real economy about 2 trillion yuan of credit funds may return, the credit easing degree in 2010 is similar to that in 2009.

　 Conjecture that 5 days financing is unavoidable.

Taking into account the factors such as refinancing of listed banks, IPO of large brokerages, the return of red chips, the international board and the over raising of new shares, many brokerages predict that in 2010, the stock market will probably receive large scale financing, with a scale of up to 900 billion yuan. This data has exceeded the financing scale of the bull market in 2007, and the impact on the market will obviously be negative. But taking into account the limited market capacity, Everbright Securities believes that the actual financing scale is estimated at around 500 billion yuan. Shenyang Wanguo analyst Lin Jin forecasts annual stock securities. Market financing The total may be close to 800 billion yuan; Guotai Junan uses the "amount of days" to describe the scale of financing this year.