Export Performance Is Good &Nbsp; Recovery Process Is Still Slow.

In April, the total export volume of textile and clothing was 14 billion 547 million US dollars, up by 16.44% over the same period last year. According to the classification, textile exports increased by 24.81% compared to the same period last year, and clothing exports increased by 10.62% over the same period last year. 1-4 months, Textile and clothing export The cumulative increase was 15.54%, and textile and clothing exports increased by 26.02% and 9.44% respectively. In March, the clothing sales volume of Enterprises above designated size was 28 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 25.88% over the same period, and the cumulative increase in the first quarter was 28.38%.

Comment

Export performance was good in April, and the recovery process was still slow. 1-4 months, the total industry exports achieved two digit growth, indicating that the industry boom is indeed improving. However, we believe that the sharp rebound in export data is more driven by the low base number. Judging from the various external factors affecting exports, the unemployment rate in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan is still at a high level, and external demand is still in the doldrums. The pressure of raw material prices and labor costs on enterprises has been increasing. The appreciation of the renminbi will be an indisputable fact. On the whole, we remain cautiously optimistic about the export situation of the whole industry. The export growth rate in the second half of this year will be lower than that in the first half of the year, so as to maintain the forecast of 5%-10% export growth in the whole year.

The domestic demand market is growing strongly. Regardless of the textile and clothing retail sales above the above quota, the retail sales of textiles and clothing have been restored to 07 years this year. The consumption potential of the two or three tier cities has more room for development than that of the first tier cities. Throughout the year, we believe that consumption of domestic demand will keep steady and steady.

Maintain the "neutral" rating of the industry. From the perspective of plate performance, in the first 3 months, driven by the double export of domestic demand data and strong rebound in corporate profitability, the trend of the textile and garment sector is significantly ahead of the market. Starting in April, although the government has issued a series of regulatory policies for the real estate industry, the pressure of tightening policy will continue in the future, and the market has obvious callbacks. However, due to the higher pre valuation, and the accumulation of risk factors in the second half of the year, the valuation premium of the block has dropped, so we continue to maintain the "neutral" investment rating of the industry. In terms of investment proposals, we still emphasize the more important "bottom-up" selection of stocks for the textile and garment sector. Therefore, we recommend that companies that are wrongly killed in the current round of downturns are recommended, such as YOUNGOR, Weixing shares, voyage shares and relatively reliable performance.

April Exit Good performance and slow recovery process.

1-4 months, the total industry exports achieved two digit growth, indicating that the industry boom is indeed improving. However, we believe that the sharp rebound in export data is more driven by the low base number. We remain cautiously optimistic about the export situation of the whole industry. The export growth rate in the second half of this year will be lower than that in the first half of the year, and we will maintain the forecast of 5%-10% export growth in the whole year.

According to the unemployment rate data in the US, Europe and Japan, the US unemployment rate in April did not maintain the stable level of 9.7% in March, and it rose to a 9.9% warning line. The unemployment rate in the EU and Japan in March also showed an upward trend compared with February, indicating that the unemployment problem in developed countries is still serious, and the road to recovery is long, and external demand is still in the doldrums.

Although the renminbi has withstood many external pressures in the first 4 months, it has basically maintained stability. But we have always thought that this year's appreciation of the renminbi will be an indisputable fact. The key question is only when and how much it will increase. Once the appreciation rate exceeds 3% or even 5%, it will undoubtedly have a larger negative effect on the investment expectation of the textile and garment sector, and the pressure of plate callbacks will be more obvious. The high price of raw materials and high labor costs has been another two major factors that have plagued the whole industry. We believe that this year's cost increase is also a matter of fact. The key is how to use all kinds of means to control cost pressure to a minimum.

　　 Domestic demand market Strong growth

Regardless of the textile and clothing retail sales above the above quota, the retail sales of textiles and clothing have been restored to 07 years this year. The consumption potential of the two or three tier cities has more room for development than that of the first tier cities. Throughout the year, we believe that consumption of domestic demand will keep steady and steady.

From the perspective of plate performance, in the first 3 months, driven by the double export of domestic demand data and strong rebound in corporate profitability, the trend of the textile and garment sector is significantly ahead of the market. Starting in April, although the government has issued a series of regulatory policies for the real estate industry, the pressure of tightening policy will continue in the future, and the market has obvious callbacks. However, due to the higher pre valuation, and the accumulation of risk factors in the second half of the year, the plate premium has dropped somewhat, so we continue to maintain the "neutral" investment rating of the industry.