International Futures: US Dollar May Continue To Explore &Nbsp; PTA'S Weak Pattern Remains Unchanged.
Market Review
1.
outer disc
The US dollar is the most basic wind vane.
The Fed believes that the US economic recovery is still continuing, but the pace is slow. The employment market has gradually improved, but the unemployment rate is still high. Inflation has moderated and it is expected that inflation will remain low for some time due to the existence of idle capacity.
Household spending has increased, but is limited to weak job market, small income growth, declining household wealth and tight credit.
New housing starts are still low, and investment in non residential property is still weak.
Employers have increased their spending on equipment and software, and employers are still increasing their employees' hesitation.
The role of financial markets in supporting the economy is insufficient, and the amount of bank lending continues to shrink in recent months.
From the current situation, the Fed still needs to maintain its stimulus measures, especially the low interest rate stimulants.
and
Europe
In view of the political reasons, the pressure of EU countries to reduce their fiscal deficits is large. Under such circumstances, European countries that have always held high Keynes's ideas and have a big hand will inevitably have some economic pressure.
However, under the circumstances of small interest rate control, the EU is more willing to use the exchange rate to control the economy.
After the 2001, the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar was more politically based. At the moment, the ECB's devaluation of the euro was a realistic economic consideration.
However, is the US Federal Reserve willing to lose its dollar competitiveness relative to the euro? We do not think so.
Two.
Industry analysis
In the stock market, futures and other external factors, the spot market rebounded, PTA East China domestic market sellers insist on 7000-7050 yuan / ton or more, buyers little enquiries, market pactions scarce.
On the spot market of PTA, the price of goods sold by Taiwan goods is relatively low, and the price is basically maintained at 860 US dollars / ton.
After a substantial increase in polyester prices in June, polyester prices generally increased by more than 10% in early July compared with the beginning of June.
The cost of downstream weaving enterprises has increased, and the resistance to the purchase of polyester has begun to aggravate. The atmosphere of market wait-and-see has become increasingly strong, making the market atmosphere of polyester trading in Shengze and Jiaxing continue to fall.
Xiaoshao area's terrain market, POY silk in the actual paction batch of goods have their own sales promotion phenomenon.
With the sensitivity of Xiaoshao area to the price of polyester, I am afraid that the price promotion will soon be launched in the whole Zhejiang and Zhejiang provinces.
Three, comprehensive analysis
In the current market situation, PTA is still in a relatively weak stage.
When the overall commodity market fell, it fell more; when the commodity market rebounded, it was consolidated.
What else can explain that PTA is in a weak position?
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