Review Of The Textile Industry In The First Three Quarters Of 2009

In the first three quarters of 2009, the textile industry continued to recover steadily in the first half of this year, and this trend became clearer.

Although the demand for international market remained sluggish, industrial exports were still at the bottom, but industry production and investment continued to rise, profits rebounded significantly, and industrial restructuring accelerated. At the same time, the grim employment situation was slowing down, and the employment volume of some sub sectors began to pick up, which better implemented the guiding principles of "ensuring growth, expanding domestic demand and adjusting structure", and made important contributions to macroeconomic recovery and social stability.

First, the first three quarters of the operation of the basic situation

(1) the growth rate of production and sales rebounded significantly.

In 2009 1-8, 52203 Textile Enterprises above Designated Size realized industrial output value of 2 trillion and 370 billion 778 million yuan, an increase of 7.50% over the same period last year, down 8.13 percentage points from the same period last year, but 4.87 percentage points higher than that in 1-2 months.

Production and marketing link is relatively stable, since the beginning of the year, production and sales ratio has been maintained in the 97%-98% range, slightly oscillating, 1-8 months production and marketing ratio of 97.43%.

The growth rate of the output of the main products was obvious. The yarn grew by 9.75% in 1-8 months, the first time higher than the same period last year. The growth rate of cloth and clothing rose to 1.10% and 3.98% respectively, and the trend of the growth of the chemical fiber production increased notably to 13.31%, which is 10.24 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

(two) investment continued to increase slightly.

In 2009 1-8, the total investment of the industry was 188 billion 245 million yuan, up 6.55% from the same period last year. Since the beginning of 09, the year-on-year growth rate showed a continuous upward trend, and the growth rate slowed down after May.

Judging from the leading indicators of investment growth, the number of new projects is 5194, an increase of 23.34% over the previous year, which is obviously 33.01 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. And since the beginning of this year, the overall upward trend has been very significant, reflecting the increasing confidence of enterprises in the market prospects.

(three) exports are still at the bottom.

In the 1-8 months of 2009, the total export volume of textile and clothing was 107 billion 534 million US dollars, down 11.78% from the same period last year. The decline was 0.66 percentage points higher than that in 09 years.

Export growth slowed down, and the 6, 7 and 8 growth rates in the three months were -9.80%, -12.18% and -15.32% respectively. The growth rate was 13.13%, 17% and -3.98% respectively, indicating that the decline in August was larger than that in the previous year, while the ring ratio was negative.

On the main export markets, the cumulative export volume of textile and apparel in the United States decreased from 0.07% in the 1-8 months to 0.07% percentage points in the month, compared with 1-7 months (1.29%), 1.36 percentage points since the beginning of 09, and the total export volume of the European Union's textile industry decreased by 8.77% over the same period last year. It was 0.72 percentage points lower than that in 1-7 months (-8.05%), and continued to increase negatively. The cumulative export volume of Japanese textile clothing increased by 0.91% over the same period last year, continuing the declining trend since the 1 quarter of 2009.

(four) stable growth of domestic sales growth

With the continuous growth of the macroeconomic regulation and control policy of "ensuring growth and expanding domestic demand", domestic sales growth shows a continuous upward trend and has become the primary factor to support the textile industry's stabilization and recovery.

In the 1-8 month of 2009, the domestic sales value of textile enterprises above designated size was 1 trillion and 845 billion 764 million yuan, an increase of 11.67% over the same period last year, 5.04 percentage points higher than that in 1-2 months of 09 years.

At the same time, the industry accounted for 79.91% of domestic sales in 1-8 months, up 3.31 percentage points over the same period.

(five) continuous improvement of operation quality

Although the financial crisis has caused the external situation of the textile industry to be grim, the pace of adjustment and upgrading of the industry has accelerated, and the improvement in the level of technology and management has brought about steady improvement in the quality of operation.

In 2009 1-8, the labor productivity of Enterprises above designated size was 331 thousand and 300 yuan / person (calculated according to the total industrial output value), an increase of 8.90% compared with the same period last year; the proportion of enterprises three charges was 6.18%, a 0.18 percentage point decrease over the same period last year; the profit margin of industries above designated size was 3.73%, a 0.16 percentage point increase over the same period last year, and gross margin of sales was 11.30%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points over the same period last year.

(six) industry efficiency improved significantly.

In 09 and 1-8 months, the total profits of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 84 billion 471 million yuan, up 12.28% over the same period last year, which not only reversed the negative growth situation of -0.14%, but also raised 12.42 percentage points sharply.

The efficiency of the chemical fiber industry has improved remarkably. The profit of chemical fiber in the 1-8 month has increased by 42.42%, which is 77.11 percentage points higher than that in the 1-5 month (-34.69%). The total profit of the man-made fiber manufacturing industry increased by 3.15 times compared with that of the previous year, and the export rebate rate of viscose products increased significantly.

The year-on-year growth rate of the garment industry continues to continue the trend of growth since the 1-2 month, and has risen to 17.30% in 1-8 months. It has become an important pull in the recovery of the whole industry.

However, in the main sub sectors,

(seven) narrowing of employment

With the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the textile industry, the employment situation in the industry has begun to ease and the decline has narrowed.

In the 1-8 month, the volume of textile enterprises above designated size was 10 million 735 thousand and 200, down 1.29% from the same period last year, narrowing by 0.19 percentage points compared with the 1-5 month decline (-1.48%).

The employment situation of the sub sectors showed an imbalance: cotton textile, printing and dyeing, wool spinning and silk four industries were 1-8 months of labor decline than 1-5 months, and cotton spinning decreased by -3.22%, compared with 1-5 months (-2.51%) increased by 0.71 percentage points, relatively obvious, while the clothing industry employment growth rate compared to 1-5 months has begun to turn positive, an increase of 0.45%, an increase of 19 thousand and 100 over the same period.

Two. Main influencing factors

(1) the international market downturn restricts the export of industry.

At present, although the global economy is showing a gradual improvement trend, consumer demand and employment in major economies have not recovered at the same time, and the overall situation is still not optimistic.

With the continuous weakening of international market demand, the export volume of China's textile industry is decreasing. The export enterprises are still faced with the pressure of order shortage and low price squeezing profits.

(two) improvement of domestic economy

Since the beginning of this year, China's national economic growth has recovered rapidly.

In the 1-8 month, the national industrial added value increased by 8.1% year-on-year.

Compared with the end of 2008, the growth rate increased significantly.

The improvement of domestic economy has promoted the growth of domestic industry.

In August 2009, the total retail sales of clothing commodities increased by 21.6% over the same period last year, 5.7 percentage points higher than that in 1-2 months, and the total retail sales of clothing increased by 23.3% over the same period last year, which is 7.7 percentage points higher than that in 1-2 months.

(three) loose.

Under the loose monetary policy environment, the benchmark interest rate of banks is relatively low, and the financial cost of enterprises is obviously decreasing.

In 1-8 months, the textile industry's financial expenses dropped by 4.93% compared with the same period last year, and the interest expense dropped by 11.12% compared with the same period last year.

The decrease of financial cost has a certain effect on improving the profit level of enterprises.

(four) rising prices of raw materials and increasing cost pressures of enterprises

Affected by demand pull, textile raw material prices rose significantly in the first three quarters compared with the beginning of the year.

As of September 30th, the price of cotton (grade 328 cotton) increased by 20% compared with the beginning of the year, and viscose staple fiber increased by more than 40%.

The rise of international crude oil has also driven up the price of chemical fiber raw materials. Compared with the beginning of the year, the main chemical fiber raw materials such as domestic PTA average price and polyester staple fiber average price have increased upward trend compared with the beginning of the year.

The upward pressure on raw material prices has increased the cost pressure of enterprises, but it has increased negatively compared with the same period last year, leaving room for the year-on-year growth in profits.

Three, annual industry operation trend

Judging from the current situation, the international market demand in 2009 is unlikely to recover significantly, the textile industry's exports will basically maintain the current negative growth level, while domestic demand will continue to grow steadily, the growth rate is expected to continue to accelerate, the supporting role of the industry will also further increase, industry production and sales will continue to rise steadily, the benefits may fluctuate slightly, but the overall trend of operation is expected to further improve.

(China Textile Industry Association Industry Department, statistical center)