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The Economic Environment Is Complex &Nbsp; Policy Choices Are Important.

2010/7/7 9:48:00 49

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Since the National Bureau of statistics released monthly economic data in the second half of last year, the whole society has been more meticulous about the observation of China's economic trend and the macro policy.

The upcoming July figures include not only monthly data, but also data from the first half of the year, believing that the July data will be available.

data

The publication will surely add new materials to the topic of China's economic trend and macro policy choices in the long run.

After the economic data released in June, the central bank did not raise interest rates, nor did it introduce other regulatory policies.

Macro regulation is known as a "vacuum" or "observation period" of a policy.

The reason why the policy of regulation and control is relatively stable is due to the characteristics of the economic situation.

At the beginning of the year, Premier Wen Jiabao predicted the characteristics of China's economy in 2010 with "complexity".

The economic trend in the first half of the year does reflect that the economic complexity of this year is higher than that of the past. Therefore, the difficulty of making macroeconomic policies is not the same as before.

From the perspective of economic operation, since the beginning of reform and opening up, China has undergone several macroeconomic regulation and control practices in the course of the pition from the traditional planned economy system to the socialist market economic system.

The time periods can be roughly divided into 1979 to 1981, 1985 to 1986, 1988 to 1989, 1993 to 1996, 1998 to 2002, and 2003 to 2008 in the first half year.

Because of the rapid growth of China's economy during the 30 years of reform and opening up, most of the above regulation belongs to the tight regulation which aims at overheating the economy. Its policy tool is to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy. The policy objective is to prevent economic overheating by restraining investment. A rare exception is that the regulation from 1998 to 2002 belongs to the expansive regulation aimed at stimulating economic growth. It is a stimulus policy to expand domestic demand in response to the negative impact of the Asian financial crisis on China's economy.

The latest regulatory policy began in the second half of 2008.

In response to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the central government formulated a macro-control policy of "expanding domestic demand, ensuring growth, adjusting structure and improving people's livelihood" in order to fight against this "one hundred year old" global financial crisis and effectively stimulate economic growth.

fiscal policy

And moderately loose monetary policy.

This regulation led China to take the lead in the global financial crisis.

It should be said that all previous macroeconomic regulation was dominated by controlling economic overheating or stimulating economic growth. Policy objectives were relatively simple and policy instruments were easy to choose.

Since 2010, the operation of China's economy has become more complicated than ever before, which has increased the difficulty of the choice of regulation tools.

At present, China's economy is in an "intermediate zone".

On the one hand, the economy has recovered.

From the data of the first quarter, the growth rate of GDP11.9% is not too high, it can not be overheated, and it has dropped in the past two months.

But on the other hand, the foundation of recovery is not very firm, and there is greater uncertainty.

Although many analysts believe that the possibility of the two bottom finding of our economy is relatively small, it has not been completely ruled out.

The degree of export-oriented economy in China is the highest among the world's major economies.

In the era of economic globalization, taking account of the adverse effects of the continued rise in sovereign debt risks of some countries on China's economy, the risk of such a two bottom finding can not be ignored.

Therefore, expansionary policies can not be withdrawn.

Look at the CPI index, which reached 3.1% in May. It is still moderate, but it is still likely to continue to rise and break the target of 3% this year.

Therefore, controlling inflation and managing inflation expectations is also a must for macroeconomic regulation and control.

In addition, the choice of regulation tools is closely related to the current economic operation environment and the degree of market system development in China.

First of all, after a long period of rapid growth, the scale of China's economy has been very large. This year, it is expected to surpass Japan and become the world's second largest economy after the US.

The difficulty of regulating such a large economy is not the same as in the past.

Secondly, the mature market economy system is still not fully established. The use of regulatory tools is subject to many restrictions, and more attention should be paid to the characteristics of the present stage. For example, the combination of market-based tools and administrative tools is the product of considering the characteristics of the present stage.

Therefore,

economic situation

The complexity and the diversification of control objectives are the main reasons for making the macro-control policies difficult to understand at this stage.

Judging from the practice of regulation in the first half of the year, despite the constant controversy, the regulatory policy was basically implemented in accordance with the tone set at the beginning of the year, and achieved good results.

In the current complex situation, maintaining policy continuity and stability is still the focus of policy implementation, and improving policy pertinence and flexibility is the difficulty of policy implementation.

The choice of macro-control policies must first be prudent, especially when it comes to policy decisions.

Taking interest rate raising as an example, although the market has been speculating that the central bank may raise interest rates this year, half a year has passed. During this period, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio three times, and at the same time, it lowered the new three year central bank rate. However, it did not raise interest rates, which reflected that the central bank was very careful in raising interest rates.

If the CPI index does not jump changes, the possibility of raising interest rates by the central bank during the year has been significantly reduced.

In fact, not raising interest rates is the result of careful weighing of various factors at home and abroad.

Secondly, the use of regulatory policies must take into account the comprehensive objectives of "ensuring growth, preventing inflation and adjusting the structure", rather than "lose sight of one another".

Taking the existing real estate policy as an example, we should not only achieve the goal of restricting housing prices to rise too fast, but also eliminate the asset bubbles in the real estate market, and avoid negative impacts on the development of the real estate industry and related industries.

Such a policy choice can be called "Pareto optimization".