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Surplus Pattern Is Difficult To Reverse; &Nbsp; PTA Bottomed Out.

2010/7/7 9:53:00 24

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Brought about by the European sovereign debt crisis

Systematicness

Risk impact, Zhengzhou PTA futures since mid April has maintained a weak trend.

Despite the slow down of the PTA after the crisis, the appreciation of the renminbi has brought new bad profits to the market. In the case of domestic oversupply, PTA's long-term weakness is hard to reverse.

China is the largest textile producer and exporter in the world. The appreciation of the RMB will reduce the export competitiveness of textiles, and the textile market situation will also directly affect the development of the chemical fiber industry and the upstream PTA industry.

It is estimated that the profit of the domestic textile and garment industry will drop by 3% - 6% when the value of RMB rises by 1%, especially the garment industry with the highest export dependence.

At present, the prelude of RMB appreciation has been officially opened. In the long run, it will give a heavy blow to the export oriented textile industry, which will adversely affect the demand for PTA and aggravate the market surplus.

RMB

The exchange rate against the US dollar remained stable for a long time from 1994 to 2005.

After the reform in July 2005 to July 2008, the RMB went through a continuous and small appreciation process.

After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the yuan began to peg to the US dollar and the exchange rate gradually stabilized.

In June 19th this year, the central bank said it would further push forward the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, and then the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar intensified.

On the international market, the US dollar exchange rate in the international interbank foreign exchange market exceeded 6.80 mark in June 21st, and this Monday (July 5th) set a 6.7685 lowest level, which has fallen by more than 0.86%.

On the domestic market, the data released by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center show that the middle price of the US dollar exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market has fallen from $1 in June 21st to 6.8275 yuan in July 5th to 1 yuan in July 5th to 6.7733 yuan, or more than 0.79%.

The trend of RMB appreciation has come into being at home and abroad.

For a long time,

Low labor force

Cost and price advantage is the basis for the survival of China's textile and apparel products in the international market. The appreciation of the renminbi will weaken the competitive advantages of domestic textile and garment enterprises in the world and reduce their living space.

The appreciation of the renminbi means that the price of our products in the international market is rising and the competitiveness is decreasing.

China's textile and garment industry is heavily dependent on the international market.

Our government has repeatedly stressed that it will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

There is little chance of a significant appreciation of the renminbi, but slow appreciation is the general trend.

According to the current rate, the appreciation of RMB will exceed 2% in the second half of this year.

In such a large scale, although some enterprises can reduce risks by using non US dollar settlement, their long-term adverse effects will still be very serious.

The adverse impact of RMB appreciation on the textile and garment industry has not yet been reflected. The decline in exports in the second half of this year is almost certain. The decline in the demand for polyester market will exacerbate the PTA market surplus pattern.

Long term high profit leads to continuous expansion of domestic PTA capacity. Once downstream demand decreases, overcapacity will be inevitable.

Although the PTA inventory of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange has shown a downward trend since mid May, it is still at a high level.

Affected by the appreciation of the renminbi, the pattern of market surplus is difficult to reverse in the second half of the year, and PTA prices remain weak.

In the long run, exchange rate changes will be unfavorable to the export of textile and garment industry, which will restrict domestic PTA consumption and increase the risk of PTA prices falling sharply.

Affected by the appreciation of the renminbi, the domestic PTA prices continue to fall more risky in the second half of the year. PTA production enterprises need to grasp the rhythm of policy regulation and make full use of the opportunity for the futures market to rebound, and take timely hedging measures to lock in profits.