The Winter Of Nylon Is Past, Can Spring Be Far Behind?

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This year, Zhejiang province first announced the plan of energy saving and emission reduction: during the peak summer of this year, the power consumption of high energy consumption and high emission enterprises was controlled, including 61 polyester factories and 16 houses.

This news has produced almost double effects on polyester and nylon, which belong to the chemical fiber industry. Polyester factories have taken the opportunity to raise their prices, and once the supply is in short supply, the sales are extremely hot. It is as high as summer. The price of nylon civilian silk has not been lifted by the news of stop production and production. The market price of the mainstream FDY70D/24F is taken as an example, from the highest point of 28500 yuan / ton in mid May to 26500 yuan / ton, the sales volume is reduced, and the stock level of the factory is rising.

Under the pressure of this market, most manufacturers of nylon civilian silk production have strong intention to cut production, and even some enterprises that have not been listed on the list of stop and reduce production have no choice but to respond to the call of the government.

Freezing cold is not a cold day. Why does the cold market of nylon silk market come from? Let us repeat the case first and review the whole process of the cold wave step by step.

In 1 and May, the heat of the caprolactam market was rapidly disintegrated by a strong cold air from Europe.

In the first half of the year, the market climate of caprolactam was abnormal. With the expectation of unexpected supply and unexpected anti-dumping investigations, the temperature rose all the way from year to year, and reached a historical extreme high temperature in early May, which was 2740-2770 US dollars / ton, up 20% from 2280-2300 dollars in the beginning of the year.

However, when caprolactam is in the summer, there is a strong cold air coming from Europe unexpectedly. After its birth in Aegean Sea, it quickly swept across the European Union and spread all over the world. The euro was frozen and the crude oil was cold. The heat wave of caprolactam was also weak. So the temperature dropped abruptly. The hot summer that was brewing in 5 months was poured down by the Aegean seawater, and it did not fall into the severe cold in 2 months.

In 2 and June, the "reduction of production wind" was blowing vigorously, and the polymerization of polyamide chips suffered ice damage and intensified the cold wave in the caprolactam market.

The high temperature of the upstream raw materials will make the downstream market extremely hot, but at least the passion is not strong enough to catch the chill. But the cold air in Europe is very strong, especially in the market of semi dull finishing of nylon high-speed spinning. Since late May, it has been suffering from bad ice disaster. The slicing price has dropped down with caprolactam. At the time, most of the sliced SUNCOO stock had been stagnated with the caprolactam, and the slicing was once cold until there was no price in the market. The manufacturers had to make an essay on the starting rate, from 8 to 6, and even to close the polymerization tube. The overall operation rate of the polymerization link has dropped to about 58%, and the "reduction" has become the main theme of the industry.

The demand for raw caprolactam has also been cut down due to the sharp reduction in production. Under the action of cold air superposition, the hearts of market participants have been shiver in the cold wind.

3. Entering the July, the "reduction wind" is still spreading downstream.

The cold wave is still continuing, and the civilian silk has entered the winter as described in the beginning of the article, and the price of the cord fabric has been declining. The price of cord fabric in East China in July is around 30000 yuan / ton, and the turnover is at 29500 yuan / ton, which is 2500 yuan / ton lower than that of 32000 yuan / ton in May.

North China is 28000-28500 yuan / ton, and the turnover is still weak.

In terms of operating rate, the average operating rate of cord fabric polymerization is currently at 70%, and there is still a downward trend.

Looking back at the source of this cold wave, we can easily point the chief culprit to the super cold air in Europe. But when we think about it, the market temperature is rising all the time, and it is doomed that it will go down. The cold air is coming. On the one hand, it accelerates the early arrival of the pale season, and on the other hand, it also aggravates the tragedy.

The upper and lower reaches of the market went through 08 years of pain and ran smoothly in more than 09 years. In 2010, when the heat went up, the market kept on catching up, and the stock of upstream and downstream materials remained at a high level.

This expectation is nothing. It can be caught in the cold wave, and the pain for 08 years is still there. Driven by the mentality of buying up or buying down, the cold current is getting stronger and stronger, and finally the whole market is cold.

In the cold wind, some people were unable to escape, and some people were trapped because of the untimely reaction. Most people were sticking to it, believing that the market of caprolactam was always hot because of the rigid demand, because the new aggregate capacity and the upstream supply remained unchanged, and because there was some sudden anti-dumping.

If winter comes, can spring be far behind? But we still ponder over the coming of winter and when spring will come again.