A Number Of Leading Indicators Have Been Released In The Semi Annual Economic Report.

A number of leading indicators have declined.

Yesterday, the national development and Reform Commission's Energy Bureau announced China's total electricity consumption data in June.

Data show an increase of 14.14% over the same period, a marked decline in growth rate than in May.

The slowdown in the growth rate of power generation in June is consistent with the trend of the June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which reflects the slowdown in China's economic growth.

Several economists and market experts told our correspondent that several macroeconomic indicators were weakening, and that the economic data for June and the two quarter to be released today are not very optimistic.

Experts generally believe that the slowdown in the second half of this year is inevitable, and that the national macro policy will be loosened.

In short, "economic growth before and after the whole year is low and the national policy is tight and loose".

Control of high energy consumption and declining electricity consumption

Electricity consumption data showed that China's total electricity consumption in June was 352 billion kwh, an increase of 14.14% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 6.66 percentage points from 20.8% in May, with a growth of 1.1% and a decrease over May.

In January -6, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 20094 billion kwh, an increase of 21.57% over the same period last year.

"The decline in electricity consumption data is related to the recent electricity consumption control of high energy consuming industries such as steelmaking, cement and so on, because this year is an important year for achieving 1," 11th Five-Year "1, and" energy saving and emission reduction targets ".

Zhou Tianyong, a famous economist and deputy director of the research center of the Central Party school, told reporters.

In the past two months, the state departments have issued frequent notices to increase energy conservation and emission reduction efforts.

The state requires all localities to clean up preferential electricity prices for high energy consuming enterprises and execute differentiated electricity prices for high energy consuming enterprises.

Yesterday's data showed that in the distribution of electricity consumption, the heavy industry consumption of the second industry increased by 16.11% in June, far below the cumulative growth rate of 26.46% in the first half.

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Two quarter data is not optimistic.

Previously released PMI data in June and June electricity consumption data trend is similar, is also declining trend.

In June, PMI was 52.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from last month, and for second consecutive months.

Today, to the two quarter, the key macroeconomic data release points, analysts believe that the above two data are reflected in the economic trend of the first indicator, which means that the pace of China's economic growth is continuing to slow down, and the upcoming June and the two quarter of the economic data will not be too optimistic.

With the release of CPI from all over the country, 3% of the warning lines have broken through. In the first half of the year, the national CPI breaking 3% has become a consensus.

Li Daxiao said that the economic slowdown in June will be reflected in the economic data released on the 15 day. "But I think it is all expected, and it will not surprise the market in particular.

There will be some pressure on the stock market, but the pressure will not be too great.

"

Yuan Gangming, Professor of China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University, expects that China's GDP growth will drop to 10.8% in the two quarter, while CPI is expected to stop rising.

"The estimated decline in the third and fourth quarters is almost the same as in the second quarter, or one percentage point or more in one quarter.

The annual average GDP growth rate is slightly below 10%.

"

Expert analysis

Zhou Tianyong, the famous economist and deputy director of the Research Institute of the Central Party school,

Annual GDP growth rate 9%-10%

Personally, it is believed that the economy will definitely slow down in the second half of the year.

Although the economic growth rate is high and low, it will not be too pessimistic in the second half of the year, and the data will not be too bad.

The annual GDP growth rate is 9%-10%.

Such factors as reduced credit supply and higher cost of enterprises will affect the growth of the economy in the second half of the year.

The recent intensive research at the top level should be based on the adjustment of macro policy.

Because there are many problems in our country.

For example, adjusting the structure and ensuring growth is a dilemma for real estate regulation and housing prices.

How to adjust the policy depends on the inflation pressure and the international situation in the second half of the year.

He Chengying, director of Guoxin Securities Research Institute:

The two possibility is increasing.

In the first half of this year, economic data were reflected in the investment of 4 trillion yuan last year, but this investment driven GDP growth is not sustainable.

Next, China's economic growth will continue to grow with the idea of pformation.

Now we are discussing the two bottom finding problem. Now the international economic situation is not very good, and the possibility of domestic economic exploration is also increasing.

In my view, this year's macro-economy will have a trend of high and low.

CPI's investment growth will slow down after going out of the market.

The corresponding policy may be relatively loose, the direction and structure of policy and investment will be adjusted, and the stock market will be better in the second half of the year than the first half.