Price Increase Is Difficult To Compete With RMB Appreciation, Foreign Trade Orders Are Sharply Reduced, And Imports Are Suspended.

For 5 days. The 110th Canton Fair The first phase ended, and the statistics showed that the mechanical and electrical products dropped to 54.9% in the US and 15.3% in the five minerals and chemicals exports to Europe. As China's import and export WEATHERVANE The unsatisfactory order data highlights. Foreign trade situation Not optimistic.

"The import and export situation in the fourth quarter and next year, at least in the first quarter of next year, will be quite severe because of the increasing instability and uncertainties in China's foreign trade in the past few months." Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said in October 19th.

March 31.5%, August 27.1%, August 18.9%, foreign trade year-on-year growth data began to decline from March this year, the first three quarters of China's exports and imports Increase All over the same period last year dropped by more than 10 percentage points, the growth rate decreased significantly, the policy makers expressed concern.

Following Premier Wen Jiabao's investigation, the Ministry of Commerce and its subordinate chambers of commerce also conduct targeted research on the current foreign trade situation. A business person who participated in the investigation told reporters that the survey is not only aimed at exports, but also imports. "But in the light of the current research situation, the foreign trade situation is very grim." He said.

Obviously, foreign trade, one of the three carriages driving economic growth, has dragged GDP back. Statistics released by the Statistics Bureau showed that the GDP growth rate dropped to 9.1% in the three quarter of 2011. Among them, the contribution rate of external demand to GDP is -1.3%, compared with -0.7% in the first half of the year, its short board effect is more obvious.

Regarding this, Li Daokui, member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (micro-blog), told this newspaper that the growth rate of China's economy in the next 2-3 years will slow down, and that the soft landing of China's economy is actually taking shape, and that the problem of accumulating for more than ten years is being solved.

At the same time, monetary policy is still hard to say, and the law of "directional easing" has surfaced. In October 12th, the Executive Council of the State Council decided to establish fiscal and fiscal policies to support the development of small and micro enterprises.

Price increase is difficult to appreciate RMB appreciation

"The export market is becoming more and more difficult." This is almost the newspaper reporters at the Canton Fair heard the most.

The minimum wage is 20% higher than that of last year, and the price of raw materials is more than two times in one year. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 6.8 from last year to 6.3 now. At the beginning of this year's spring fair, many enterprises are still entangled in the question of whether or not to raise prices. But at the autumn fair, price rises seem to be the only way for enterprises to continue to survive. Reporters interviewed found that this Canton Fair can be described as "rising" sound, enterprises will generally raise the price of 5%-20%.

Although the price has gone up, Wang Hui, the sales manager of Shandong Lai Xin foreign trade group company, is not excited, because this is nearly the same as nearly 20%-50%'s raw materials, and the profit of the company has been reduced.

As a 5 consecutive year ranking China's largest export volume of 500 enterprises in Shandong, Lai Xin, its main export to Europe and the United States. At this Canton Fair, Wang Hui felt that orders from Europe and the United States were significantly reduced. "We expect that orders will continue to slide in the four quarter." {page_break}

The personal experience of the enterprise is consistent with official statistics. Official statistics show that on the first day of the Canton Fair, 95 thousand people were admitted, representing a sharp decrease of 21% compared with some 120 thousand people last year. In addition, there were 59280 people from Asia in the first phase, accounting for nearly 60%, 17637 from Europe and only 4078 from the United States. In terms of volume, the number of electromechanical products in the US has dropped by 54.9%.

Ho Chong, a macro analyst at Huachang securities, said in an interview with reporters that from the current Canton Fair, we can see that the negative impact of the external environment on China's exports is beginning to show. First, the pattern of disadvantaged growth in the US and European economies has no signs of improvement, and the negative impact on China's exports is more significant.

Many exhibitors interviewed by reporters said that the next year's orders may be even worse, but what they are most worried about is not the order, but the appreciation of the renminbi.

"The rise in cost is good. We can pass the price increase, but we have no way to face the appreciation of the renminbi. The profit difference between half a year and half a year may be thousands of dollars, and the possibility of RMB appreciation continues to be very large." Heavy truck manufacturer Wang Xifeng, an overseas sales manager of Anhui Valin automotive Limited by Share Ltd, said.

In order to retain workers and the market, enterprises have to choose "short flat fast" small list. Therefore, in the first order, the short list was mainly within three months, and the short list accounted for 52.7%.

Q4 export growth or sliding to the position

The most worrying thing for policy-makers is whether such a decline in foreign trade is a trend.

In October 13th, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the forum held by the responsible person of foreign trade enterprises in Guangzhou, pointing out that at present and for some time to come, foreign trade should focus on the three pillars of "steady growth, adjustment of structure and promotion of balance". It is worth mentioning that "steady growth" has been put in the first place this time.

This is the day before the opening of the Canton Fair. After the financial crisis, Wen Jiabao attended the Guangzhou Trade Fair for the first time. At the symposium, business representatives generally reflected that in recent years, the rise in labor and raw material prices and the appreciation of the renminbi caused the profits of foreign trade enterprises to decline and production and operation difficulties, and hoped that the government would take measures to help enterprises overcome their immediate difficulties.

"Wages have increased by 10% every year in recent years. But this will also generate many costs. For example, pension insurance accounts for 10% of the total salary, medical insurance accounts for 6.5% of the total wage, and trade union membership fee is 2%, which will increase correspondingly. Guo Xiaohui, executive vice president of Shenzhen Association of foreign investment enterprises, counted Premier Wen's accounts on the increase in the overall cost of the enterprise. She took the influence of RMB appreciation on enterprises as an example: among the 200 enterprises, more than 60% of the enterprises said that the amplitude would exceed 3%, which would have a great impact on the enterprise, or even a loss.

After the completion of the national survey, the research on the business system level also started. Our reporter was informed that the Commerce Department of the Canton Fair and the chambers of Commerce will conduct research on various factors such as order status, production status and profit situation, and the investigation report will be submitted to the State Council.

Considering the cost of external demand, exchange rate and base number, the Ministry of Commerce forecast that import and export growth this year will show a trend of "before and after".

The business people involved in the survey told reporters that from the current research situation, the fourth quarter of the foreign trade situation is very grim, export growth rate may slide to single digit. This is quite consistent with the predictions of many organizations.

Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS Securities, said that as the euro zone economy was dragged down by the sovereign debt crisis, it is expected that China's exports will significantly slow down in the next few months, and the growth rate will fall to single digits at the end of this year, while the growth rate in 2012 will only increase by 5%.

As export growth is expected to weaken significantly in the next few months, UBS will also reduce China's export growth forecast from 12% to 5% and reduce its actual exports forecast from 9% to 6%. {page_break}

Fine-tuning of foreign trade policy

Under the harsh foreign trade situation, the policy trend is particularly important.

"We will combine the expansion of imports with stable exports, and strive to promote a basically balanced balance of payments. China has always adhered to an open trade policy, which attaches importance to exports and imports and does not deliberately pursue trade surpluses. In the survey, Wen Jiabao's policy of "steady growth, structural adjustment and balanced promotion" undoubtedly injected a warm stream into the foreign trade enterprises in the cold wind.

Obviously, the foreign trade policy will remain stable for the rest of the year and next year, including processing trade, export tax rebate, finance, insurance and exchange rate policy. This also means that the "promotion" work for nearly a year has come to an end.

Economist Mao Yushi said recently that there are two problems in China's economic structure: first, there are too many exports, so a large surplus has been accumulated, representing about three trillion of foreign exchange reserves. Second, too much economic growth depends on foreign trade.

But this time, it is almost impossible to save China's economy by relying solely on foreign trade.

In the 2008 financial crisis, foreign trade contributed greatly to China's economic recovery, but it also left some drawbacks. Nowadays, the state has begun to focus on adjusting the economic structure, and it is obvious that it is impossible to achieve spanformation when the economy is developing at a high speed. Therefore, even if the GDP slowed to 9.1% in the three quarter, it is within the scope of the state's permission.

Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the finance and Economic Commission of the NPC, said that the economic growth rate is slowing down. GDP's annual growth rate of 8% is also the first in the world. It can be seen that the possibility of economic growth falling into the 8 era is not without.

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of China National Information Center, pointed out that the three major patterns of investment, consumption and foreign trade that will stimulate China's economic growth will not change abruptly, but will gradually change.

The first thing to loose will be fiscal and taxation policies. In October 20th, the Ministry of Finance released data showing that the total tax revenue from 1 to September was 7 trillion and 129 billion 218 million yuan, an increase of 27.4% over the same period last year. The call for tax cuts will start again.

According to the consensus of the experts interviewed, the proper reduction of the tax on the spanfer link is beneficial to the growth of the income of the enterprises and residents, and is also conducive to the smooth development of the national expansion of domestic demand strategy.