Is The "Cold Winter" Coming?

If the first three quarters

Foreign trade "

Both the competent departments and relevant experts and scholars believe that the severe winter of export is coming. The export situation will be very severe in the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year.

The "wind direction" is set at the Canton Fair.

In the past ten years after China's accession to the WTO, the Canton Fair, once known as "China's first exhibition", has been upgraded to "the world's first exhibition", with hundreds of thousands of enterprises and millions of people involved.

And this year's wind direction is obviously "five winds of northwest wind".

Reporters learned that the three day before the Canton Fair in autumn this year, the total number of overseas visitors to the visitor market was 93 thousand, an increase of only 2.6% over the same period this spring, and an increase of 13.2% over the same period last autumn.

On the first day of the Canton Fair, only 95 thousand people were admitted, compared with about 120 thousand people last year.

According to past experience, European and American purchasers have always been the main force of the Canton Fair. However, due to the debt crisis this year, Liu Jianjun, a spokesman for the Canton Fair, has said that the situation of purchasers' participation may not be optimistic this year.

This is indeed the case.

As of October 18th, the total number of registered applicants was 105421, of which 59280 were in Asia, accounting for about 60%, and 17637 in Europe. Among the 15485 people in the Americas, only 4078 came from the United States.

The loss of European and American purchasers as large buyers makes many enterprises more pessimistic.

On the other hand, the situation of export pactions and orders is not optimistic.

The total export volume of the first three days was 10 billion 190 million US dollars, which increased by 4.2% and 14.5% respectively.

From the order, the short list within three months accounted for 51.7%, 3 - 6 months accounted for 35.5% of the single, 6 months or more of the long list accounted for only 12.8%.

Short and medium orders account for nearly 9 of the total, reflecting business concerns about short-term environmental changes and lack of confidence.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, admitted that the situation in autumn Canton Fair was not optimistic, and the changes in the environment at home and abroad, especially the unstable and uncertain factors affecting China's foreign trade development in the past few months, "the import and export situation in the fourth quarter and next year at least in the first quarter of this year will be quite grim."

PMI, as a leading indicator, is also reflected.

Although China's PMI new export orders index rose seasonally to 50.9 in September, it was still significantly lower than the historical average.

The OECD comprehensive leading indicator has also continued to fall in recent years, indicating that export growth may continue to decline in the coming months, and exports will face greater challenges in the fourth quarter of this year.

Exports face "three risks"

"Severe export situation"

Lu Peijun, deputy director of the General Administration of customs, said that the uncertainty factors that restrict China's foreign trade development in the fourth quarter are mainly the signs of slowdown in world economic growth, and the rise of trade protectionism in developed economies such as Europe and the United States. This makes the international market environment more complicated. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will inhibit the growth of foreign trade export, and the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises will increase.

Speaking of the debt crisis in Europe and America, Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Academy of Social Sciences, said that the Euramerican sovereign debt crisis will not only be confined to the public debt market, but also involve the banks, foreign exchange markets, the global economy and the real economy of China through exports.

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In fact, statistics show that since the outbreak of the Greek crisis, the export growth rate of China's exports to the EU has dropped sharply from 46% in January 2010 to 27.7% in August 2011, and the US outgoing growth rate has dropped from 56.6% in January 2010 to 25.1% in August 2011.

"Europe and the United States are the main export markets in China. The slowdown in economic growth in Europe and the United States will inevitably affect China's export demand, making exports difficult to play the role of growth engine again."

Li Xuesong said.

In addition to the impact of the global debt crisis, Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will weaken the price competitiveness of China's export products.

Domestic labor costs increase, tightening policy leads to continuous rise in financing costs, and also makes small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises run difficult, affecting their export.

Exchange rate is tied to foreign trade enterprises.

A furniture manufacturer in Guangdong told reporters that the furniture produced by its factory is a relatively high-end product. The main export place is North America, which is priced in US dollars, so the exchange rate has great impact on the enterprises. "Therefore, we usually do not take orders for more than 3 months, or make clear the terms of the exchange rate risk in the agreement ahead of time."

The reporter understands that many foreign trade enterprises are faced with an awkward situation. In the face of many uncertain factors, enterprises often have orders and dare not take over. For fear of some accidents in the whole production to delivery cycle, the original profit is also squeezed out.

Conservative orders have become the strategies adopted by many export enterprises.

Ding Weishun, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce, said: "the environment facing foreign trade exports is very complex, the difficulty of growth is increasing, the overall cost of enterprises is rising, and some small and medium-sized enterprises are limited by the size and strength, and the ability to digest costs is limited.

After May this year, many enterprises reduced orders, and some orders were pferred to the Southeast Asian market.

The way of foreign trade pfer is "right then".

Although it is difficult to play the role of the engine of economic growth, many experts are not worried about a serious decline in exports, but think that when exports fall and imports increase faster, we should pay close attention to structural adjustment and pformation so as to enable China's trade balance to develop towards established targets.

"The sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States affects the economy mainly through the channels of confidence, wealth effect and financing costs. Compared with the subprime crisis, the impact on the real economy is relatively small. There will be no two recession in the world economy. China's export growth still has the basis of world demand."

Zhu Baoliang said that China's export growth rate will continue to slow down, but there will not be a sharp decline from 2008 to 2009.

Under such circumstances, gradually slowing down the pace of exports and increasing import intensity have become a good opportunity to regulate our foreign oriented economy.

In fact, this year, China's foreign trade pformation has made great achievements.

In the first 8 months of this year, the pulling effect of China's export price growth has been enhanced.

Shen Danyang said that the rise in export prices is partly due to the rise in prices of raw materials, but more importantly, China's export competitiveness or bargaining power has been enhanced after China adopted the policy of "turning the way and adjusting the structure".

From the perspective of trade structure, the general trade growth in the first 9 months is faster than that of processing trade, and its share has also expanded significantly.

General trade imports and exports grew by 31.7%, the growth rate was 16.9 percentage points higher than that of processing trade, accounting for 52.9% of China's total import and export value in the same period. Since August, it has appeared second times since 2000 (the last time it was January 2009).

Ding Weishun said that the external demand downturn will continue for some time. The export situation in China is not optimistic. At this time, we should seize the opportunity to promote the pformation of foreign trade mode.

Transformation of foreign trade women workers

The 24 year old Hubei girl, Jun Li, is a gold medal employee in a wedding dress in Xidan Beijing wedding tower.

Jun Li's Putonghua is very pleasant. It is a gentle Hong Kong and Taiwan accent, without a hint of home accent.

This is due to her many years of working experience in Guangdong.

Jun Li was originally working in a foreign trade clothing factory. He experienced difficulties in financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and survived the hardships of 2010, but he failed to carry on 2011.

"Remember that in 2008, we didn't know what the financial crisis was, but it was very serious to see the news on the Internet.

At that time, we were afraid of being laid off and worked very hard to get along with the boss. "

Jun Li said, at that time, everyone was in danger, the income of more than 2000 yuan, also let these off-site workers strive to keep their jobs.

In addition to the shortage of people, cotton prices were not high at the time.

The cost of manpower and raw materials is low, so that even a slight reduction in orders is not as bad as outside imagination.

"In fact, we think the best days for 2008 and 2009 are over."

Jun Li said.

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In fact, it is not just Jun Li who feels this way.

After 2010 and 2011, many foreign trade owners have come to sigh with emotion. In retrospect, the days in 2008 and 2009 are much better than in the past two years.

"At that time, it was very cheap to buy raw materials, and the products of our enterprises were still more competitive. The orders were not affected too much, and the workers were relatively stable. However, the latter were not very good. The price of raw materials rose sharply. The overall situation was more difficult and more serious than when we faced the financial crisis."

Some owners said frankly.

It can survive the export enterprises in 2010 and 2011. Although orders for next year have not been significantly reduced, they no longer dare to take orders.

Because the exchange rate changes too fast, sometimes the enterprise receives the order, but when the product is finished, because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the profit of the company suddenly decreases, and even the profit may not exist.

Export enterprises usually have periods ranging from receiving orders to final deliveries.

In these months, the fluctuation of cost will bring unexpected risks to enterprises.

For a garment factory, it will take about 4 to 5 months to start from the beginning, and 6 to 7 months to the export. There will be many uncertainties.

Often a contract that appears to be profitable has no profit margin at the time of final delivery.

Jun Li also said that because of this, the business owners were very cautious in their orders, and fewer and fewer people left.

Just when people were few, the enterprise suddenly picked up a good order, and the staffs were very nervous for a while. In the end, because the raw materials failed to arrive in time, the product completion date was postponed, not only did it not make money, but also lost the customer's money.

This made the owners of basic profit or even losses for two years, and finally decided to close the factory.

Because of this, he left the original company.

She found that the little sisters who worked with her in Guangdong had left very little in the original business.

They are too young to bear the hardships of factories. They prefer to pay less but seemingly relaxed shop assistants, and some of them simply return home because of bad corporate conditions.

As a southern girl, he left the South and came to Beijing to find her own opportunities.

The original work experience is not not helpful to the new job.

After several years of clothing production, Jun Li found that dressing skills had something in common with wedding dress.

"For example, a small bride is best not to wear satin, it will not be able to live in the field, wearing the lovely style of the best gauze, of course, the waist line is tall and tall; the tall and thin bride can choose the fishtail wedding dress, very figure."

Soon after he worked, he learned something quickly.

Relying on her sweet looks, good language, and precise eyes, she worked well at the wedding hall in Xidan.

The wedding dress she recommended to the bride's bride often allowed the bride to be taken off, which made her a gold medal worker in the store.

Her ideal now is to save enough money to open up her own wedding dress shop and dress up the most appropriate bride.

From industry to unemployment and service industry, Jun Li's four years' work reflects the ups and downs of many foreign trade enterprises, and the pformation of foreign trade women workers has become a sidelights of many foreign trade enterprises.