RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Temporary Impact On Foreign Trade

On the 13 day, the RMB exchange rate in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market fell back to 1 yuan against 6.7802 yuan after reaching a new five year high on the 12 th.

Ordinary people only pay attention to the one after the decimal point of exchange rate ("6 yuan 8"), but the head of a handicraft import and export company in Baoding 13 stressed to our reporter that their internal discussion of exchange rate must cover four place after the decimal point, otherwise they would lose thousands of Yuan's income when they settled the foreign exchange.

This company in Baoding mainly focuses on

After the appreciation of the renminbi, the Baoding company has increased its quotations for export commodities, but has not yet had a major impact on orders.

In fact, the external impact of Hebei's exports in the first half of this year is multiple.

Due to the increase in wage costs and recruitment difficulties in the foreign trade processing factories, the exporters have cancelled some orders.

In June, the Baoding company also returned 6 customers' deposits, which did not cause much economic losses.

Since the central bank restarted the RMB exchange rate "flexibility reform", the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.8%, close to 1%.

For some industries with low added value and mainly relying on the low wage advantage of workers, the loss of revenue from "1%" has become a serious topic.

According to the insiders, the profit margins of handicrafts and other exports are fairly good, but for another big export of Hebei, the textile industry will face a difficult period.

Qinghe County, Hebei, is the largest cashmere distribution center in China. Cashmere and its products are also one of Hebei's important export commodities.

Meng Guosheng, manager of import and Export Department of Hebei Hui Xing Cashmere Group Co., Ltd., told the reporter 13 days ago that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar did have an impact on the export of cashmere, but it seems that the impact is relatively limited.

Meng Guosheng said that the order price for cashmere exports is always adjusted according to the exchange rate.

Orders for some time ago were exchanged for 6.78 yuan at $1.

But this expectation is also broken by the real exchange rate.

Compared with other industries, cashmere exporters take a more active position.

According to Meng Guosheng, the export of cashmere and products in China is limited by several enterprises. Foreign importers can only accept the increase in quotations, otherwise they will not be able to get the goods.

In fact, the most recent product price adjustment is "0.5 dollars, 1 dollars". Foreign businessmen are also psychologically prepared for the appreciation of the renminbi, so they can accept it.

According to introducing, for Qinghe's cashmere export enterprises, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar can only be regarded as a "small incident".

After the financial crisis, export volume has shrunk, and has not yet returned to pre crisis levels.

In the first half of this year, the devaluation of the euro also affected the recovery of exports.

Hebei's bigger export worries

The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar also means that the prices of imported iron ore and other commodities of Hebei enterprises are cheaper.

According to Shijiazhuang customs data, in May, Hebei's export surplus amounted to US $630 million. A rough estimate by the reporter found that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar would make Hebei's foreign trade industry earn tens of millions of yuan less per month, which will have less impact on the exporters who use the forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange financial services in the month of May.

For Hebei's exports, a more important external factor is the substantial impact of the European debt crisis and the devaluation of the euro on the orders in the second half, as well as the canceling of the export tax rebates of some steel products by the central government.

For example, the first five months, Hebei steel enterprises from the export tax rebate on the income of nearly 4 billion yuan, 46 kinds of steel to cancel the tax rebate, is bound to bring billions of losses.

According to analysts, according to the current situation of Hebei's foreign trade, the impact of RMB on the appreciation of the US dollar is more psychological.

For foreign trade enterprises, the yuan has depreciated nearly 2% against the euro and yen, which is slightly offset by the appreciation.

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RMB appreciation is unlikely.

Yesterday, the renminbi dropped sharply against the US dollar.

Although a new high of 6.77, most people in the industry believe that the possibility of significant appreciation in the second half of this year is very small.

In June, China's total import and export volume hit a record, but the growth rate was sliding month after month.

The impact of the devaluation of the euro on foreign trade will be reflected in the second half of the year, and economic recovery and consumer demand in Europe and North America are not stable.

In addition, the domestic economy is also facing some uncertain factors.

Liu Dongliang, a foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank, believes that the external pressure on RMB appreciation is not large at present.

At the time of looking ahead to the RMB exchange rate, the top executives of Baoding foreign trade company also indicated that Hebei and China's foreign trade prospects are not optimistic in the second half of this year. I believe that the RMB exchange rate will not continue to rise.

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in July 13th was 6.7802, down 84 basis points from the previous trading day.

On the previous day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.7718.