Jiangsu And Zhejiang Market Polyester Chip Market Weak Adjustment

From the perspective of polyester production, polyester chips are closely related to upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products. Polyester products, as intermediates of polyester industry chain, will be affected by any changes in the upstream and downstream sides.

From this week's trend, polyester chips are mainly affected by upstream raw materials.

1, international

This week, international oil prices stabilized at 75-80 US dollars / barrel, which is the interval of oil prices for most of this year.

Although the market was bullish at the beginning of last week, the mood quickly turned to pessimism, because the main statistics and information of the two big oil consuming countries, the United States and China, triggered more speculation that the world economy might have a two bottom finding unless the employment situation in the US improved and China adjusted its economic structure, reduced its dependence on exports and stimulated domestic demand growth.

So last week, international crude oil prices were weak.

2, upstream

In the near future, the prices of upstream raw materials are low due to the ample supply of goods.

The Asian p-xylene spot market is quoted at 845~855 US dollars / ton (CFR/ China's main port) or US $830~840 / ton (FOB/ Korea).

PTA spot market continues down, the market price is now down seven thousand yuan, the current price level is about 6950 yuan / ton, the foreign plate negotiation price of 850 US dollars / tons.

The MEG market is also in a weak position, and the paction is deadlocked. The main negotiating price of the internal market is 5800 yuan / ton, and the external price is 700 dollars / ton.

Looking ahead, I believe that the weak market of polyester chips is difficult to change in the short term. The reasons are as follows:

1, upstream raw materials will continue to weaken.

At present, China's PX capacity is relatively high, and China Petroleum and gas group 19 announced that the largest single million tons of p-xylene aromatics unit of the Urumqi Petrochemical Co world single series was completed on 19.

This is bound to aggravate competition with imported products, and its price will inevitably weaken.

PTA has maintained a high profit level at present, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers is relatively high. At present, the operating rate of various devices is generally maintained at 90%-95%.

Although the power restriction in Zhejiang will have an impact on its overall capacity, there will be little impact on the closure of related enterprises in the short term, and 7 and August will be the traditional off-season textile industry, and the consumption of downstream polyester will also be reduced.

Therefore, it is foreseeable that the oversupply of PTA market will still exist in the short run.

2, the downstream polyester market will turn from strong to weak.

Early polyester market continues to rise, is away from the cost factor, with reference to inventory standards.

As a result, the profit of polyester is at the highest level in history.

Especially fine denier silk products, the profit generally exceeds 3000 yuan / ton.

In the early days of weaving mills, because of better market conditions, the raw materials were generally high and the purchasing enthusiasm was high.

But now, with the coming of the low season of cloth market, this can be verified by the recent trend of China Shengze silk chemical fiber index of Ministry of Commerce (Figure 1). The resistance of downstream weaving factories to high priced raw materials is obviously aggravated, and the intermediaries and weaving factories in the early stage have eaten large raw material stocks, basically they can run for a month to a month and a half.

Recently, the production and sales of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces can basically be flat, which is mainly supported by the empty single support in the early stage.

So it can be predicted that with the decline of the downstream market, the stock of polyester is bound to pick up, and the polyester market will also turn from strong to weak.

3, the economic recovery is slowing down, textile exports will weaken. The latest economic survey data show that the pace of expansion of manufacturing in Asia, Europe and the United States is slowing down, and the momentum of global economic recovery is showing signs of gradual extinction.

In July 1st, the China logistics and purchasing Federation (CFLP) announced that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) in June was 52.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, and for second consecutive months. This shows that the pace of China's economic growth is continuing to slow down.

The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped from 57 in May to 55, and global manufacturing growth slowed again in June.

The reform of RMB exchange rate has started again, which has enhanced the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.

At present, the renminbi shows a gradual appreciation in the concussion.

The appreciation of the renminbi has further weakened the export competitiveness of the textile industry.

Undoubtedly, it will have an impact on the export of textile industry.

Combined with the above aspects, there is still downhill space for upstream raw materials.

And the strong low position of the downstream polyester market will also change.

Coupled with the weakening of the terminal market, I expect polyester chips to continue to weaken.