From The "Three Carriages" To Determine The Three Quarter Investment Strategy
Everbright Baode's latest three quarter release
Investment
The strategy report points out that economic growth has dropped and prices have continued to rise.
Macroscopic
In the background, investors should determine the investment strategy of the three quarter from the "three carriages" of monetary policy and investment, import and export, and consumption.
Everbright Baode believes that with the continued implementation of the reform, taking into account the factors of Sino US interest margin and the current economic downturn, the possibility of further increase in interest rates will be further reduced in the coming period.
Referring to the situation of stock market and bond market after the reform in 2005, the exchange rate reform is good news for domestic A share market and bond market.
2010 is China's economic structure.
Transformation
In the critical period, aiming at stimulating the "three carriages" of domestic economic growth, Everbright Baode pointed out that the consumption growth rate in June this year is expected to be around 19%, but the actual consumption growth rate after deducting the price factor is also around 16%, and the consumption level in the three quarter is expected to maintain a steady growth.
Investment, the first two quarters showed a gradual decline in the situation, taking into account the introduction of real estate policies, investment growth in the future will continue to decline, but there is a lag period, the three quarter investment growth or will remain at 25% level.
At the same time, export growth rebounded significantly in the first 5 months of this year and may be downhill in the future.
The reason is that from the historical data, May is the high speed growth period of foreign trade, and the import and export of June will have a downward trend.
In the future, affected by the appreciation of the renminbi and the debt crisis in Europe, the export growth in the three quarter is expected to decline slightly.
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