China'S Economy Is Hitting &Nbsp In The Middle Stream, Heading For The Other Side Of Steady Growth.

The stock market is a barometer of the national economy. In the first half of this year, China's economy grew by 11.1%, ranking the first place in the world, but the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were on the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 26.82%, ranking the last second in the global stock market growth rate, which is only slightly better than the Greek debt crisis.

Investing in the stock market means investing in the future in a sense.

The sharp fall in the stock market reflects the market's concern for the future economy.

So what are people worried about? How should we correctly understand this concern? How should we deal with the risks that the market is worried about?

Challenges --

The most complex year of China's economy has been in the middle market.

In the first half of the year, China's economy has maintained a good momentum of high growth, high employment and low inflation. The national economy continues to develop towards the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation.

However, the domestic and international environment facing economic development is still complicated, and there are still many contradictions and problems that restrict the smooth operation of the economy.

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has increased the uncertainty of agricultural income increase in the second half of the year; the industries with high energy consumption and high emissions have increased rapidly, and the task of energy saving and emission reduction is arduous. The business environment of enterprises is more severe. "According to the survey, the wage increase in the first half of the year has increased the labor cost of enterprises by more than 20%, while the cost of raw materials has increased by 18% and the financial cost has increased by 10%. The new order index representing market demand has dropped to the lowest level since last March. Under the two phases of the attack, the pressure of enterprises is relatively large."

An expert from the Ministry of industry and information said frankly.

What is more alarming is the group of figures: an important leading indicator of macro-economy - the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has dropped for two consecutive months; the growth rate of GDP has dropped from 11.9% in the first quarter to 10.3% in the two quarter; the growth rate of industrial added value has dropped from 18.1% in March to 13.7% in June.

Although there are early preparations for the twists and turns of the economic recovery, the fall of many indicators has triggered the worry of the market: will the Chinese economy descend sharply or even have a "two bottom"?

Confidence - the callback is the high adjustment and active adjustment in the process of economic recovery, and there will be no "two bottom".

"The two quarter economic growth is mainly due to last year's base and part of the macro adjustment policy.

Although the economic growth has dropped to a certain extent, it still operates in the normal growth range.

The National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun interpreted the current data in this way.

Market worries are more based on the future.

From the "three carriages" to boost economic growth, consumer demand will remain stable and relatively fast this year. People are worried that the recovery of the world economy will be weak, especially the European debt crisis, which will affect China's exports.

This is a comprehensive and objective analysis.

At present, the economic recovery in the US, Europe and Japan is slowing down, the consumption is unstable, and the unemployment rate tends to rise. However, the possibility of the "two dip" of the world economy or the possibility of going back to the recession is very small.

According to the latest prediction by the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate of the world economy in 2010 and 2011 was 4.6% and 4.3% respectively.

Compared with the -0.6% in 2009, the growth rate of over 4% would not be the two bottom line.

"The European debt crisis has an impact on China's exports, but its impact is limited."

Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said.

Although the euro debt crisis has led to the depreciation of the euro and the appreciation of the renminbi, I have a faster appreciation of the currencies of the main competitors of European exports - China's neighboring countries, and the competitiveness of Chinese products is still prominent.

"A considerable part of China's export products are daily necessities, and the demand for them is relatively large.

In addition, the proportion of manufactured goods with higher technological content is increasing.

Therefore, the vitality of "made in China" is very strong.

Lu Zhongyuan said.

On the other hand, the export structure has been constantly optimized, and emerging markets and developing countries have occupied me.

"Real estate investment accounts for more than 18% of the total fixed assets investment in the whole society, so property market regulation may affect investment growth, but this impact can be hedged."

The deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, Ba Shu song, said.

In the first half of this year, real estate investment increased by 38.1%, and the impact of market regulation on economic growth has not yet appeared.

But in the case of shrinking trading volume and downward price shocks, real estate investment may still be down in the second half of the year.

"This year, the country will add about 7000000 sets of affordable housing.

The large-scale start up of affordable housing will reduce the investment in commercial housing, and overall the growth rate of real estate investment will not slow down. The contribution to economic growth will be at least unchanged from 2009.

Ba Shu Song said.

We can also see that China is in the stage of accelerated development of urbanization and industrialization. 4 trillion yuan investment has not yet been completed, and 23 key projects have been started in the western development year.

In terms of long-term or short-term factors, the growth rate of investment in the second half of this year is unlikely to slow down significantly.

The world bank's latest issue of China's Economic Quarterly suggests that China's economy has slowed down recently, but its outlook is still good, and its annual growth rate is expected to be 9.5%.

Experts generally believe that this year's economic growth will show a trend of high before and after low as a result of base and other reasons, but this does not mean that the economic situation has reversed. The short-term callback of growth is a high adjustment in the process of economic recovery, and it is also a positive result of active adjustment. China's economy will not have the so-called "two bottom finding".

"It's like the normal fluctuation of aircrafts after take-off, though some bumps, but it has left the ground and will not fall off."

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, for example.

Callbacks do not change fundamentals.

While enhancing our sense of hardship, we should also strengthen confidence and consolidate the situation of economic and social development.

"Confidence is more important than gold and currency", and it is also true to overcome the impact of the financial crisis and deal with the new complex situation.

There is a response - - the keynote of stability policy is to improve the pertinence and flexibility of regulation and control {page_break}

At present, China's economic development is in a critical period from the upward trend of recovery to stable growth.

In the second half of the year, the economic situation at home and abroad is still complex and uncertain. More attention should be paid to stabilizing policy as the keynote, insisting on handling the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations as the core of macroeconomic regulation and control. We should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting and early warning, so as to improve the pertinence and flexibility of macroeconomic regulation and control.

"I understand that the macro policy in the second half of this year will not be too early to quit, nor will it rush to raise the quota."

Ba Shu Song said, "on the one hand, a series of regulatory policies introduced this year, such as the regulation of the housing market, the control of the total credit and the rhythm of the credit, the standardization of the local investment and financing platform, the energy conservation and emission reduction, the export tax rebate and other policies, need to be observed. The effect may not be tightened for the time being, otherwise it may lead to overshoot and increase the downward pressure on the economy.

On the other hand, as long as the economic growth rate is in the expected range, there is no need to rush out the so-called "two stimulus" policy, otherwise it will encourage overcapacity and asset bubbles.

To do a good job in the second half of the year, experts believe that we should work hard on five key words.

"Steady growth" - adhere to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, implement and improve the consumption policy, and accelerate the establishment of institutional mechanisms for sustainable consumption growth.

At the same time, we need to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand.

"We should speed up the formulation of a plan to adjust the distribution pattern of national income, improve the income level of farmers and urban low-income groups, and promote sustainable consumption growth," said Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the state information center's economic forecasting department.

We should make greater efforts to improve energy conservation and emission reduction, accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries, improve the development environment of service industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, and promote regional coordinated development.

"Push the reform" - deepen the reform of key areas such as resources and environment, state-owned enterprises, finance, taxation and finance, and steadily push forward the comprehensive rural reform.

"Inflation control" - to ensure that the supply and price of important agricultural products are basically stable, grasp the intensity, rhythm and emphasis of credit, and keep the overall price level basically stable.

"Protect people's livelihood" - maintain steady employment growth, promote the construction of social security system, and do a good job in housing market regulation and housing security.

"At present, the real estate market is expected to reverse and volume contraction, but the price is still running high. The next stage should unswervingly continue to implement the" new country ten "unwavering.

Ba Shu Song said.

In the complex year, China's economy was hitting the middle stream and heading for the other shore of steady growth.