Prediction Of Cotton Bud Growth And Yield In 2010

Project commitment: cotton farmers cooperative association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai cotton professional cooperative monitoring object: 13 cotton producing provinces, cities and districts, 2555 cotton growers.

6-7 month of 2010. China Cotton Association The cotton growers' Cooperative Association and Xinjiang Huatai cotton professional cooperative have verified the cotton planting area of 2555 cotton farmers in 12 provinces in the mainland and 310 counties (cities and regiments) in Xinjiang autonomous region, and investigated the growth status and disaster situation during the bud stage, and predicted the output of the new year for the first time. The survey shows that the cotton area in China is basically the same as last year. In June, most of the cotton came into bud stage, and a few flowers flowed at the end of the month. The development period of cotton was delayed by about 10 days compared with the previous years under the influence of low temperature. With the increase of temperature, cotton growth and development process accelerated, and cotton diseases and insect pests occurred generally late than last year. The overall harm degree was lighter. The overall growth of cotton was better, and there was a great difference among different regions. However, since July, large and long continuous heavy rainfall has occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Basin, causing some cotton to suffer and even crop up, which will affect the output of cotton.

According to investigation Cotton grower cotton planting The area weighted average calculation showed that the cotton planting area decreased by 0.89% in 2010 compared with the previous year, which is basically the same as that in May. According to the association's calculation, it is estimated that the area of cotton planting in the whole country is about 77 million 100 thousand mu. As of June, the national average output per unit area was 91.6 kg / mu, an increase of 4.8% over the previous year, with a total output of 7 million 60 thousand tons, an increase of 3.9% over the previous year.

Since the sowing of cotton in the Yellow River River Basin, the total population has been weather conditions The cotton yield is higher than that of last year. In June, the area was less rainfall and the soil was dry. However, because of the better water conservancy conditions, cotton farming could make up for it by irrigation, and drought had little effect on cotton growth. In the first ten days of June, the temperature was low, the cotton developed slowly, the light and temperature conditions improved in the middle and late ten days, and the cotton growing process accelerated. There were generally 7-8 fruit branches, but they were still slower than the same period last year. The cotton fields surveyed in June 15th accounted for 67.8% of the total buds, which were 4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 2.7% of the cotton plants were not buds at the end of June. Affected by low temperature in April, diseases and insect pests such as seedling disease, Miao Ya, spider mite and blind toad are less dangerous. Most cotton fields have already set up high yield shelves. Among the surveyed cotton farmers, 59% thought the growth was better, 49 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. 24.5% thought the growth was bad, which was 5.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. Among them, more than 80% cotton growers in Hebei thought the growth was better. More than half of the cotton growers in Shandong thought it was better, but nearly half of the cotton growers in Henan thought the growth was bad. The incidence of diseases and insect pests is relatively low. The cotton farmers surveyed 91.8% thought the disease was lighter. 81.3% thought the pests were lighter, which increased by 56 and 41 percentage points respectively from the same period last year. The main diseases in Hebei province are the lightest.

The summer cotton in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River ended in mid June. Under the adverse weather conditions, the growth of cotton was not ideal enough. The yield per unit area was basically the same as last year. In May, the low temperature and heavy rain in the basin delayed the transplanting of cotton, and the growth period of cotton was 7-10 days longer than that of the whole year. Some areas lagged for more than 15 days. In the middle of June, when the weather cleared, the growth of cotton was better. But in the middle and late 6, drought appeared in some areas, which led to unbalanced growth of cotton. The growth of early cotton was better. There were about 10 fruit branches in one seedling, 5-6 shoots in two or three seedlings, 2-3 fruit branches in the young, and less cotton in late cotton. The total bud emergence time was delayed and the number of buds was relatively small. The cotton bud farmers surveyed only accounted for 37.8% of the buds before June 15th, representing a decrease of 7 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and 5.3% of the cotton plants were not buds at the end of June. Because of low temperature and drought, cotton diseases and insect pests are lighter, but cotton grows generally. 35.7% of the surveyed cotton growers thought the growth was better, which increased by nearly 6 percentage points over the same period last year. 48.6% thought the growth was bad, which increased by nearly 4 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, more than half of the cotton farmers in Hubei, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi thought the growth was bad. The incidence of pests and diseases is slightly lighter than that of last year. Cotton farmers surveyed 74.8% thought the disease was lighter, 56.3% thought the pests were lighter, and the pests and diseases in Jiangsu and Jiangxi were relatively lighter in the provinces, and Hunan was relatively heavy. After entering the July, the basin has a large number of precipitation, and some areas are seriously affected, which has affected the normal growth of cotton.

Xinjiang cotton region has suffered severe weather and pests since May, which has a certain impact on the growth and development of cotton in some areas. The main problems are low temperature, rainy, drought, gale and other diseases such as red spider and aphid. Earlier this year, the emergence of cotton was poor and the growth was slow. However, after the late May, the temperature was relatively normal, and the pests and diseases were relatively small. In June, the overall meteorological conditions were good, which was favorable for cotton budding and flowering, and the overall growth was normal. However, there were strong cooling in some parts of Northern Xinjiang and severe weather in southern Xinjiang. The cotton bud stage in Xinjiang was concentrated on May 25th -7 6, where the local bud stage was earlier and the true leaf number was 12-15, which was 10 days later than that of last year. The cotton bud stage of the Corps started late, but relatively concentrated, and the number of true leaves was 15-18, which was 20 days later than that of last year.