Textile Exports Stable In The Second Half Of The First Half Of The Year Is Hard To Predict

In the latest world economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will grow by about 4.6% in 2010, while the growth rate of all economies will slow down in 2011. From the perspective of economic data, the recovery of the domestic market is clearer, but in recent years there have been some factors restraining the continuous recovery. Under the two expected games, the global economy is facing uncertain nodes. For the cotton textile industry, the data of gauze production, exports and investment, employment and efficiency in the first half of 2010 are all good, reflecting the effect of recovery in a certain extent.

Stable growth of gauze production

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2010 1~5, the cumulative yarn production of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 10 million 213 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 17.41% over the same period last year, and the total output of cloth was 23 billion 888 million meters, an increase of 17.38% over the same period last year.

The growth rate of gauze production has slowed down compared with the year-on-year growth rate in 1~2 months this year.

Since the beginning of this year, the production of gauze has been relatively stable, and the output per month has not been very different. It has maintained a relatively stable growth rate compared with the same period last year, especially the output of cloth has been gradually recovered from the negative growth of the same period last year to the current positive growth rate, and its growth rate has reached two digits.

In the first three provinces of 1~5 months, the gross output of yarn was larger than that of Shandong, Jiangsu and Henan, and the contribution rate of yarn production in Shandong and Jiangsu ranked the top two.

From the year-on-year growth rate, Henan, Hubei, Zhejiang and Fujian grew faster than the national average.

According to information from enterprises, the production capacity of two provinces in Henan and Hebei has declined, and the yarn production needs to be further confirmed.

The first three provinces that accumulated more output in 1~5 months were Zhejiang, Shandong and Jiangsu. The growth rate was faster than that of Hebei, Hubei and Henan. Their year-on-year growth rates exceeded the average level, and the total contribution rate of cloth production increased by 20.3% in three provinces.

In 2010 1~5 months, the output of woven garments in China increased by 20.36% over the same period last year, which is nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of shuttle weaving. It also shows that there is still room for the demand for cloth production in the end product market.

According to the customs statistics of China, 1~5 accumulated in 2010.

It can be seen that the overall production of gauze in China shows a stable trend, and the demand in the domestic market is not only satisfied with the output of our own country. From the import situation, we can see that there is still a certain demand for the international gauze Market.

Exports stable in the first half of the second half of the year is hard to predict

In 2010 1~5, China's cotton textile and cotton clothing exports totaled $27 billion 617 million, an increase of 16.49% over the previous year, of which cotton textile exports totaled 8 billion 452 million US dollars, an increase of 21.93% compared to the same period last year, and cotton clothing exports totaled 19 billion 164 million US dollars, up 14.24% over the same period last year.

Since the Spring Festival of 2010, the export volume of cotton textiles and cotton clothing has been gradually rising compared with the same period in 2009. On the whole, it has basically returned to the same level during the pre crisis period in 2008, and price factors also played a supporting role.

Among them, the contribution rate of cotton textile exports reached 38.88%, compared with the first quarter, there was a marked improvement.

Compared with the same period last year, the US and ASEAN markets grew faster, the Hongkong market was more stable, and the Japanese market continued to slide.

Although China's export volume to the EU is still at the forefront, China's exports to Europe in March and April, especially the larger proportion of clothing, showed a significant downward trend compared with the growth rate of the whole economy.

Affected by this, coupled with the impact of RMB appreciation expectations and other factors, most enterprises are not optimistic about the growth of export in the second half of the year.

According to customs statistics, in 2010 1~5 months, China's cotton yarn exports totaled 239 thousand and 900 tons, up 18.63% over the same period last year, still below the 6.5% level in the same period in 2008, and the total export volume of cotton fabrics was 2 billion 992 million meters, up 24.49% over the same period last year, higher than the 9.9% level in the same period in 2008. It is obvious that although the demand market of not all economies and countries has been improving, the overall demand of foreign markets has been promoted more obviously by the promotion of ASEAN and the United States two largest market.

Specifically, cotton combed yarn exports accounted for 82%, and its export contribution rate was more than 99%.

In the export of cotton fabrics, the export volume and export volume of single moon looms and denim in May 2010 declined slightly. The grey fabric still kept growing, and the export contribution rate of pure cotton fabric reached 166.16%, while the blended grey fabric had a negative growth.

The above data show that the export structure of cotton textiles has basically recovered and remained stable.

From the perspective of influencing factors, the gradual recovery of the global economy is the main factor driving China's export growth. Judging from the new round of European sovereign debt crisis and a series of recent US economic data and the domestic development environment, it is difficult to predict whether cotton textile exports will continue to grow in the second half of the year.

The price of raw cotton market has risen sharply, and the pace of product growth has stabilized rapidly from {page_break}.

Last year, cotton production in China was 7 million tons, and the cotton quota has been issued around 3 million 600 thousand tons. It is estimated that cotton production will be 11 million tons in 2009/2010, which is basically consistent with the cotton consumption predicted by China Cotton Textile Industry Association last year.

The main characteristics of this year's cotton market are: the relatively high stock of enterprises, the slow market paction, the price of the same period in 2009 hovering over the same period.

The market changed significantly since March, and the price rose by more than 1100 yuan per ton at the end of March.

5 in the middle of the month, although the state increased the quota of 800 thousand tons of imported cotton, the situation of tightening market overall resources was aggravated by the India cotton embargo policy. The cotton price rose by 1000 yuan per ton, and the price reached 18500 yuan / ton in early July.

In 1~5 months, China imported 1 million 370 thousand tons of raw cotton, an increase of 1.4 times compared with the same period last year, and the unit price of imports increased by 37% over the same period last year.

The trend of polyester and viscose staple fibers in the first half of this year is basically the same.

Polyester staple fiber rose from 9800 yuan / ton in the beginning of the year to 10800 yuan / ton in the middle of April. It began to decline gradually in the late April. When the first half of the year came to an end, prices began to rise. However, the demand for yarn did not increase significantly.

Viscose staple in the first half of the two quarter of the performance is very different, the first quarter of the enterprise production inventory is low, the demand is smooth, the price steadily rose, into the second quarter, downstream yarn prices continued downward, the price of short fiber was subsequently pulled down, changed the first half of 2009, the rising trend, the end of June, with the consumption of inventory, demand increased, prices began to rise.

The trend of gauze curve is similar to cotton trend.

After the smooth operation of the 1~2 month in the beginning of the year, prices rose with the increase of raw materials, and there was no obvious lag.

From late May to mid June, spot prices tightened and prices rose again.

In mid July, the market reversed, the number of enterprises reduced, and the price also showed a certain margin in the paction.

The price of grey cloth market was stable in 1~2 month, and a jump growth in early March, and then continued steady growth.

In the first half of the year, the order of the yarn dyed fabric is also very sufficient. But because of the continuous high price of yarn and the rising price of downstream fabrics, the profits of the yarn dyed enterprises may be affected to a certain extent.

The price of grey cloth has a lag period with the rising speed, but the downward trend is closely following the pace of cotton and yarn.

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Investment continues to grow and industrial pfer is more effective.

In 2010 1~5, China's cotton and chemical fiber textile processing industry (hereinafter referred to as the cotton textile industry) actually invested 27 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 11.14% compared with the same period last year, and 753 new projects, which is basically the same as last year.

From the sub regional perspective, the total investment in the eastern part of the 1~5 month in 2010 accounted for 51.1% of the total in the country, representing a decrease of 9 percentage points compared with the first quarter, while the central region accounted for 38.5%, representing an increase of 8.5 percentage points compared with the first quarter, while the western region accounted for 10.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared with the first quarter.

Judging from the changing situation, the actual investment in the eastern part of the 1~5 month in 2010 decreased by 4.4%, and the central and western regions increased by 27.8% and 62.4% respectively, reflecting the effect of China's orderly implementation of the industrial pfer policy.

From the point of view of the provinces, the first three provinces that have invested more in China's cotton textile industry in 1~5 months are Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces, which are 4 billion 740 million yuan, 4 billion 100 million yuan and 3 billion 710 million yuan respectively. The first three provinces that grew faster than before were Gansu, Chongqing and Hubei provinces, all of which belong to the central and western regions. Due to the low base, especially in Gansu Province, the investment last year was only 11 million 610 thousand yuan, so its growth rate was 906.1% over the same period last year, and the two provinces increased by 96% and 90.8% respectively.

The growth of investment in Jiangsu and Hebei was negative in the same period last year, because the investment level was higher in the same period last year, especially in Hebei last year, 1~5 actually completed 4 billion 200 million yuan in investment, compared with 2 billion 600 million yuan in the same period this year.

The trend of comprehensive efficiency is uncertain.

In 2010 1~5, the number of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's cotton textile industry increased by 11773. Compared with the same period last year, the number of enterprises increased by about 49. Compared with the same period last year, the number of enterprises increased by about 3%. The number of deficit enterprises was 1459, representing a decrease of 24.4% compared with the same period last year. The loss side accounted for 12.39%, which was 3.5 percentage points lower than that of the 1~2 month this year, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Compared with the same period last year, the number of enterprises in the cotton textile industry increased by 3% in 2010.

In 2010 1~5 months, the delivery value of the export enterprises above Designated Size in China's cotton textile industry was 36 billion 40 million yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year, which is close to the same level in 2008.

Among them, the main business revenue was 447 billion 130 million yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period, with a total profit of 20 billion 660 million yuan, an increase of 75% over the same period last year.

In 2010 1~5, the profit margin of China's cotton textile industry above designated size was 4.62%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the textile industry, which was 0.3 percentage points higher than the 1~2 profit margin, 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

In the first half of 2010, China's cotton textile industry has made a good start under the influence of many uncertain factors. Most of the indexes have returned to the level before the financial crisis in 2008, but there are still large uncertainties in the positive factors that push the indicators to good.

The industry is in a critical period of pition from good recovery to stable growth. The pressure of production cost is further increased, especially the continuous rising of cotton prices and the weakening of labor cost advantage. The appreciation of RMB will weaken the profits of export enterprises.

Enterprises' export orders are restricted by the risk of RMB exchange rate changes and bargaining power. The European debt crisis has led to a decline in the number of EU orders, and the US market has been slightly weakened. Japan's market share has been scrambled by ASEAN countries, and has been hit hard by international trade protectionism trade friction.

Domestic market cotton and yarn prices rose to the downstream market conduction blocked, clothing industry CPI declined.

So far, the recovery of China's cotton textile industry is bumpy, and the uncertain factors of the future trend are unprecedented.