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Regulation And Control Achieve &Nbsp; Stability Is The Main Factor.

2010/8/13 11:38:00 37

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Regulation And Control To Achieve Stability

Due to the implementation of active control measures,

Economics

Steady downward trend is obvious, from the growth rate of money supply has basically reached the target set at the beginning of the regulation.

Even if the regulatory policy is in a dilemma, monetary policy will not be turned back to super loose, and the credit scale of 7 trillion and 500 billion will not break through for the whole year.

The July financial statistics report released by the central bank showed that the balance of M2 in the end of 7 was 67 trillion and 410 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 and 10.8 percentage points lower than that of last month and the same period last year. The M2 growth rate has declined for 8 consecutive months since December last year.

The increase in RMB loans is 532 billion 800 million yuan.

Many analysts believe that the bank credit policy will shift to a more relaxed credit than the first half of the year.

policy

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In fact, after a period of observation, the basis for the relaxation of credit policy has not been satisfied, and the current domestic and international environment makes it possible to maintain structural credit stability.

from

Macroscopic

In terms of economic indicators, the growth rate of GDP in China has dropped from 11.9% in the first quarter to 10.3% in the second quarter.

Some of the leading indicators, such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, indicate that growth is still slowing down. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter may fall below 10%.

This decline has both the effect of last year's base and the result of the active regulation of policies this year.

Signs of slowdown in economic growth, coupled with changes in the internal and external environment at present, make macroeconomic regulation still require a period of policy observation, which will not be easily changed during this period.

Bank credit progress as an important tool of the central bank regulation, the first half of the application is also good.

This year, the CBRC issued a credit target of 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan, which has completed 4 trillion and 630 billion yuan in the first half of the year. According to the proportion of 3:3:2:2 in the whole year, the total amount of RMB loans increased by about 500 billion yuan in the second half of the year, which basically coincided with the newly released July loan data.

Under the condition that credit scale is well controlled, the growth of broad money supply (M2) is slower than that of the same period last year.

We can see that in July last year, M2 grew by 28.4% year-on-year. This year, the central bank actively implemented operations through the open market, and its policy objectives have been gradually implemented.

At the end of 6, the balance of broad money supply (M2) was 67 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5% over the same period last year.

Therefore, monetary policy will continue to maintain a neutral state without major fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves.

In July, it remained at around 530 billion, for two reasons: first, after completing the first half of the year's loan to deposit ratio assessment, the bank switched to the market.

Data show that in the vast majority of trading days in July, the number of newspapers bought more than the number of sales, the competition for bills assets was more intense, the balance of bills in July is likely to achieve positive growth, and the interest rate of note financing also fell rapidly from the high level in June.

Two, the supervision department has strengthened the supervision over the off balance sheet credit business of banks and financial institutions because of the consideration of bank risks, making the original credit business hidden through cooperation such as bank and credit cooperation appear, thus pushing up the new credit data.

However, due to the central government's active regulation, the demand for credit at the real economy level is more rational.

In view of the impact of real estate regulation and local financing platform inventory, the two major points of bank credit have been limited.

Although small and medium-sized enterprises are in urgent need of funds, they are not the business focus of large commercial banks.

As a result, a large amount of capital is stuck in the money market, making interest rates difficult to go up.

Because of the initiative in policy implementation

Regulation

Measures, the steady economic downturn is obvious, from the growth rate of money supply has basically reached the target set at the beginning of the regulation.

However, we must see that the current global economic recovery is very complex, making regulation and control continue to face a dilemma. And the rising domestic prices make it impossible to manage inflation expectations lightly.

The latest figures show that CPI rose 3.3% in July, or a record high in the year.

Since the July, abnormal climatic factors and partial grain production have brought pressure on the recent grain prices.

Although China's overall reserves are relatively adequate, the impact of partial reduction will be a trend effect, and the psychological impact on Residents' inflation expectations should not be underestimated.

Judging from the price trend of vegetables, pork and renting, inflation still has upward pressure, and the whole three quarter will remain at around 3%.

The report on China's monetary policy implemented in the second quarter of 2010 recently released by the people's Bank of China shows that monetary policy should not only meet the reasonable demand for funds for economic development, but also create a favorable monetary environment for the basic stability of the general price level, and manage inflation expectations well.

In general, although domestic labor prices are rising,

Resources

The increasing cost of environmental protection and the continuous reform of resource products prices will become the main factors affecting inflation expectations.

But with the change of domestic and foreign economic environment, the situation of stabilizing prices is becoming more and more favorable.

Even if the regulatory policy is in a dilemma, monetary policy will not be turned back to super loose, and the credit scale of 7 trillion and 500 billion will not break through for the whole year.

Regulation will rely more on quantitative tools to maintain a relatively stable situation.