Why Is The Consumer Confidence Index High?

After four consecutive quarters of rising, China

According to the sample survey data released by the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center on the 6 day of the National Bureau of statistics, China's consumer confidence index reached 108 points in the first quarter of this year, not only 4 points higher than the previous quarter, but also increased 19 points in the past 12 months.

"The basis for the continuous recovery of consumer confidence is the continuous warming of the macro economy. Chinese consumers have affirmed this kind of recovery."

Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center, thinks that

Statistics show that after China's economy experienced the most difficult period in the four quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the growth rate has obviously rebounded. It has rebounded from the bottom of the first quarter of 2009 to an increase of 6.2% over the first quarter of 2009, up 11.9% from the first quarter of 2010.

The sampling survey conducted in mid and late 3 this year showed that over 80% of consumers surveyed were optimistic or optimistic about the macroeconomic situation.

"China's consumer confidence has recovered rapidly as well as China's economy.

Judging from the three factors of employment, income and consumption intention that constitute the consumer confidence index, the optimistic judgement of employment and income has promoted the overall rise of consumer confidence.

According to the survey, 71% of the surveyed consumers were judged to be "good" or "very good" in the next 12 months, 9 percentage points higher than the previous quarter, and 67% for the next 12 months.

The optimistic expectation of consumers comes from the improvement of employment and income in real life.

In the first quarter, 2 million 890 thousand new jobs were completed in cities and towns nationwide, 32% of the annual target was achieved, and the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns was 0.1 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. The wage income of farmers (mainly migrant workers' income) increased by 16.3% over the same period last year.

"Consumers' expectations of employment and income tend to be optimistic, which is the main reason for the marked increase in consumer confidence in the first quarter."

Pan Jiancheng explained that the rapid growth of industry and the pulling of the 4 trillion yuan investment plan led to the improvement of employment and the increase of income, which made consumer confidence rise continuously.

From the perspective of social stratification, consumer confidence of low-income groups entered the economic zone for the first time in the first quarter, reaching 102 points.

China's Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center believes that this is not only a factor of economic recovery, but also a result of government's livelihood projects, such as strengthening social security.

While the overall optimism is improving, a new problem is worth noting, that is, consumer spending will decline slightly in the first quarter.

"Why is consumer confidence declining while consumer confidence is increasing? Our analysis may be related to the rapid rise in housing prices."

Pan Jiancheng analysis.

According to the survey, only 43% of the surveyed consumers in the first quarter believed that they are now consuming opportunities, down 3 percentage points from the previous quarter.

According to the three strata of low income, middle income and high income, the willingness to consume is the most obvious among the high income groups with the strongest willingness to consume.

"The high income group is a group that demands both immediate and" affordable "housing. The decline in their willingness to consume may be due to precautionary savings on the excessive rise in housing prices.

Pan Jiancheng said that in the new round of real estate regulation, the excessive rise in housing prices can be effectively suppressed, consumers' consumption will continue to rise, and consumption will play an important role in stimulating economic growth. China's economy can achieve a significant pformation from investment driven to consumption driven.

"Although the consumer confidence index is rising, we should not be too optimistic."

Tang Min stressed that the European financial crisis has not yet passed, and the European debt crisis has added new variables.

More importantly, China's economy should be oriented towards medium and long-term structural adjustment. The task of adjusting income distribution, strengthening social security and ultimately starting consumption is still very arduous.