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Textile And Clothing: Export To New High &Nbsp; Growth Is Expected To Slow Down.

2010/8/21 10:42:00 47

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1, the export scale is broken by 100 billion yuan, and the growth rate is expected to slow down.

Textile and clothing

The cumulative export scale continued to grow.

The cumulative export volume of US $109 billion 666 million in the 1-7 months reached US $100 billion. From the trend, the growth rate has been showing signs of slowdown in the past three months since the high growth rate in April. The export orders index continued to fall, and the weakening of external demand began to appear.

Judging from the industry classification, since the beginning of the year, the cumulative export growth of textiles has surpassed that of clothing, and this phenomenon has changed since June. We believe that this is due to the rising price of raw materials in the early stage, resulting in the pmission of textile products such as yarns and fabrics to downstream products.

2, domestic demand is still in a prosperous atmosphere.

The rapid growth of residents' income is

Domestic market demand

An important factor in maintaining prosperity.

With the advance of the reform of income distribution, residents will further improve their consumption expectations. In addition, after the minimum wage standards have been raised in many provinces and municipalities, the consumption level of low-income groups will also gradually improve, which will become a favorable factor to promote sustained consumption growth.

yield

Maintain rapid growth and maintain a high level of investment in fixed assets.

In the 1-7 month, the output of yarn was 15 million 84 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 15.29% over the same period last year. The total output of cloth increased by 37 billion 318 million meters, an increase of 21.25% over the same period last year.

Clothing output was 16 billion 600 million, an increase of 15.32% over the same period.

Due to the relatively high domestic demand, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the textile and garment industry in July continued to maintain a relatively fast growth rate. We expect that investment growth will continue to maintain stability.

4, prices of major raw materials vary. It is expected that cotton prices will begin to fall after the new cotton is listed in large quantities.

Because of the substitution relationship between staple fiber and cotton, the continuous rise of cotton prices has made room for short staple fiber, so the price of viscose staple fiber has increased significantly in the early stage.

At present, the rising market of viscose staple fiber has come to an end.

The spot price of national cotton 328 continued to maintain its rally. At the end of July, it closed at 18200 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.52% in that month. The market price of viscose staple fiber has dropped from the highest price of 20300 yuan / ton in April to 17250 yuan / ton near the end of July.

Investment recommendations: the key economic data of the world's major economies have not been effectively improved, and the decline in demand will still be the main factor restricting exports. The export growth of the next quarter is expected to slow down under the combined effects of European tightening economic measures, the effective exchange rate of RMB, the rise in labor costs and the cancellation of tax rebates for some commodities.

We maintain a "neutral" investment rating for the entire textile and garment industry.

In terms of stocks, we are still optimistic about companies with brand advantage and network expansion capability, such as 25.63,0.03,0.12%, -1.32, -3.91% and American Apparel (24.60, -0.90, -3.53%). We will conduct in-depth analysis of these companies in follow-up reports.