Home >

National Cotton Auction Is "Bustling".

2010/8/30 14:56:00 44

Since the start of the reserve cotton auction in August 10th, China

cotton

The unusually cold spot market contrasts sharply with the auction of national cotton and the popularity of Zheng cotton futures and electronic matching market.

Tons (pick up, weight, cash, the same below), the 3 level is 18200-18500 yuan / ton, Xinjiang local 3 cotton has fallen below 18000 yuan / ton, Hebei Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai and other places 4, 5 grade lint is less interested, and in August 25th, the national cotton auction price of 328 level cotton price broke through 18100 yuan / ton (net weight), CF1009 contract, closing price of MA1009 contract also respectively at 18300 yuan / ton, 18300 yuan / ton, are significantly higher than spot prices, some cotton enterprises do not understand, why cotton mills are keen on national cotton and electronic disk cotton, but do not purchase from the spot market, the author analyzes the reasons are as follows: according to the author's understanding, in late August, the Xinjiang regiment grade 2 cotton price dropped to 18600-18800 yuan /

First, from the price of state cotton storage, although the net weight of grade 3 cotton is 18100-18200 yuan / ton

Price

Converted into a public price of only 17700-17800 yuan / ton, but the weight loss, pportation and outgoing loading and unloading costs, etc., the actual price to the factory is basically 18000 yuan / ton, and the spot purchase price is equivalent, but most cotton mills believe that the quality of national cotton is guaranteed, and a lot of 2, 3 cotton tied into a bundle, although the grade is identified as 3, but the spinnability is significantly stronger than the 3 grade cotton.

Two. Part of cotton

reserve

More cotton mills take an active part in the auction of national cotton stores. The main purpose is to limit the decline of cotton prices, thereby minimizing the losses caused by the inventory of cotton, and also limiting the speed of the callback of cotton yarn and grey cloth prices from the cost.

Three, because the new cotton market will be postponed for 10-15 days in 2010/11, and Xinjiang cotton will be exported to at least November. Therefore, some cotton enterprises are worried that there will be no high-grade Xinjiang cotton available in 9 and October, so as to speed up the sale of Xinjiang cotton from the store, while the cotton futures market and the electricity market match 9. In October, there are hardly many warehouse receipts to be delivered.

Although the price of national cotton auction and the price of cotton electronic disk have strengthened in recent trading days, in August 25th, the main contract CF1101 of Zheng cotton futures approached the resistance level of 17200 yuan / ton, which is only one step away from the historical high of 17265 yuan / ton in May 19th this year. From the strength and trust of the bull market, the power to break the previous high point and March 17400 yuan / ton is very strong. But in the medium and long term, the downward trend of the cotton futures price is taking shape. If the disaster situation in the cotton growing area of the the Yellow River River Basin has not been improved in the past more than 20 days or the rain or early frost has appeared in Xinjiang cotton area, the spot price of cotton will rise from 15500-16000 yuan / ton to 16500-17000 yuan / ton.

The reasons are as follows: 1. The short-term global economy is facing a "two bottoming out". Due to the impact of the strong US dollar, the risk of commodities coming down, especially the agricultural products, has been greatly reduced. The ICE cotton market has been increasing the risk of callbacks from basic or technical aspects. 2, 600 thousand tons of national cotton auction will continue to end in mid October, and new cotton will be on sale in mid and late 9. 3, from the pre contract situation, the volume of cotton to port in 8 and September will be relatively concentrated; the downward trend of 4, downstream grey and cotton yarn prices will not change in the short term; 5 and 4-7 months, new loans from national banks continue to decline, financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises will weaken, and small and medium-sized cotton mills will once again encounter liquidity bottlenecks.