2010 Cotton Prices Go Up All The Way.

10, China Cotton Reserve Management Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "

The auction is only part of the 600 thousand tons of cotton storage plan.

Beginning in August 10th, the Central Cotton store started a new year's plan to sell cotton reserves.

Up to now, the dumping and storage schedule has reached 59.96%, but cotton prices have risen with the dumping and storage market. The price of throwing and storing cotton has risen from 18405 yuan / ton to 19440 yuan per ton in just a month, rising by 1000 yuan, which has hit a new high for many years.

And behind the rise in cotton prices, China

The surplus has disappeared.

"The current situation of China's cotton, the surplus disappeared," in the Forum on that day, Louis Da Fu, vice-president of international famous grain trader, Joe Nicosia, was used as a subtitle of the speech.

Joe Nicosia says that, like other countries, China has exhausted its surplus cotton in 2009/2010.

This situation occurs in a country that accounts for 30% of the world's output and 40% of the world's consumption. It will undoubtedly have a major impact on the global cotton market.

U.S.A

On the Chinese side, the reserve cotton reserves were 1 million 530 thousand tons in 2008/2009, and 2 million 720 thousand tons at the same time; 1 million 330 thousand tons in and 600 thousand tons in the new year, which is obviously lower than market expectations.

Therefore, when the central reserve cotton announced the dumping plan in August, the price of cotton not only did not decline, but instead rose against the market. "Because we all know that there is a gap in China's cotton, it is said to be 3 million tons, or 1 million tons, but the reserve cotton announced 600 thousand tons of throwing reserves, which is equivalent to telling the market that its bottom card is 600 thousand tons, which obviously can not make up for the gap."

Mr. Su, a Hebei futures investment company, told the Economic Herald reporter.

If there is no reserve cotton price, what will happen in the cotton market? Joe Nicosia thinks there will be 3 kinds of situations: in order to meet consumption, China will import large quantities of cotton; prices will reflect strong Chinese purchases; and China's cotton prices will increase volatility.

Farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton is low.

Ma Shuping said that the summary of domestic cotton production in 2010/2011 can be summed up in 3 sentences: the planting area is basically the same as that of the previous year; because of the low temperature and rainy season during the planting period, the physiological period is delayed; during the growing season, heavy rain in the South and drought in the north, the growth is not optimistic. If the weather conditions were bad in September and October, the last year's output should be tested.

"2009/2010 cotton market is very good, equivalent to 2003/2004, cotton prices to 18 thousand yuan / ton, 19 thousand yuan / ton, seed cotton price has sold to more than 3 yuan / Jin.

After 2003/2004, cotton planting area in China increased by 10 million mu in the following year, and after the 2009/2010 year, the cotton planting area in China is still 74 million mu in the new year, which is basically the same as last year.

Why are farmers reluctant to grow cotton because of such a high price? Why did the planting area not increase? "Ma Shuping questioned.

Since China's accession to WTO, China's textile industry has maintained rapid development, but the domestic cotton planting area has not increased.

Ma Shuping said that from 2001 to 2008, the growth rate of China's spinning cotton was 10%, but the domestic cotton output increased by 5.8%.

And the 5.8% is the result of raising the yield per unit area.

Ma Shuping said that the cotton production in the Yangtze River Basin, the the Yellow River River Basin and the Xinjiang region in recent three years has been changing.

The cotton in the Yangtze River Valley and the the Yellow River river basin is facing the pattern of competing with grain. The state grain production is subsidized and mechanized. However, the above two regions are effective in mechanization of cotton production and need to consume a large number of labor force, which is not consistent with the pfer of Chinese labor force to cities.

Therefore, China's cotton production has shown a pattern of pferring to the central and western regions in recent years, and Xinjiang's cotton output has accounted for 40% of the whole country.

The growth of planting area is facing difficulties, and the cotton industry in textile industry has increased substantially. This makes the domestic cotton market supply face a huge gap, and the main way to make up for the shortfall is import.

Since China's accession to the WTO, China has imported more than 2 million tons of cotton per year, reaching a maximum of about 3600000 tons.

Ma Shuping said.

For the future of China's cotton industry, Ma Shuping expressed concern: "organic encounter also has challenges, but it is mainly a challenge. Keeping cotton production stable will face long-term pressure, and the volume of expansion will be limited. The only way out is to raise the unit yield."

She believes that the potential of China's cotton production is still in Xinjiang, especially if the water saving technology can be better utilized, Xinjiang cotton still has potential to tap.

Ma Shuping also appealed at the same time, "the state regulatory departments should keep up with the policy and increase investment in cotton subsidies, comprehensive subsidies for agricultural subsidies and cotton base construction, so as to stabilize cotton production."

Anxiety in the textile industry

Although cotton prices have risen steadily over the past year, they have risen by more than 40%, but textile enterprises are "sitting on Diaoyutai" in this process.

"Downstream cotton yarn and other products are rising faster and even more than cotton. The efficiency of textile enterprises is at their best in recent years. They do not complain that cotton prices are too high, but they are worried that they can not buy cotton."

Mr. Su said.

The data provided by sun Huaibin, an economic research center of China Textile Industry Association, also reflects a similar situation. "Over the past year, the output value of Enterprises above Designated Size in textile industry has increased by 10%, and the benefit has increased by 25%. Since this year, the textile industry has continued to improve its efficiency, and the profits of Enterprises above Designated Size have reached 72 billion yuan, an increase of 61% over the same period last year, with a profit margin of 4.43%, an increase of 0.9% over the same period of 1-5."

But there are also worries behind the thriving textile industry. "The price growth of the whole industry chain presents a" high before and after low ". Cotton prices have increased by more than 40% in the past year; cotton yarn has grown even more; many textile enterprises have made money by cotton yarn; however, the price of cotton cloth has increased by only about 20%; clothing export prices have increased by less than 2%; the clothing index of CPI has also seen negative growth in some months this year.

Such a price chain, how to make the cost back to become a hidden worry.

In addition, as cotton prices have reached a high level, textile enterprises have also entered the state of anxiety, not only can not buy cotton, but buy Cotton after the price fall how to do this anxiety mood enveloped the whole forum.

During the rest, the participants discussed cotton price trend.

The result is: unclear, good and risky.

Joe Nicosia has indicated that the international cotton price has been at an unstable time of over 80 cents / pound. Over the past 20 years, there have been 7 such cases. After 4 such cases, the price falls below 60 cents / pound in the next 6 months, and the risk is obvious.