Short And Fierce Game &Nbsp; PTA Price Is Expected To Exceed 8000

Commodities in September 9th

The macroeconomic environment is relatively stable.

With the easing of monetary policy in China, the market of various industries has been more active this year, especially the expectation of rising prices of agricultural products, and the rise in housing prices in August has risen.

The latest CPI data released in August rose 3.5%, a 22 month high, which has brought some pressure and worries to the current loose money market. However, from the analysis of the current domestic economic operation, the central bank has little chance of raising interest rates in the near future.

Although the CPI growth rate reached 3.5% in August, it was basically consistent with the previous market judgement. Therefore, the expectation of the rise has been digested by the market and is basically in line with the development trend of the inverted U trend all year round. Therefore, under the present mild inflation situation, monetary policy will not be tightened too much.

It is also impossible for the state to make any changes in monetary policy. It is necessary to operate strictly after a reasonable co-ordination plan, so as to effectively play the role of its macroeconomic regulation and control.

Therefore, the overall domestic economic environment is still mainly lax, which will lay the foundation for PTA price rise.

In September 8th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for second consecutive times, raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, and said that inflation basically met expectations, and that consumption and investment were supported by a relaxed credit environment.

Recent US economic data have been reported frequently, and several reports are better than market expectations, suggesting that the economy is improving.

Although the world's major economies have slowed down to varying degrees, there is little risk of falling into deep recession again.

With the advent of the autumn and winter wear season in the northern hemisphere, the environment for the sale of domestic textile and clothing products will continue to improve. In the context of the stable macroeconomic environment at home and abroad, the PTA price is expected to continue the upward trend of the recent oscillation.

Power restriction measures in downstream industries are difficult to effectively curb PTA demand

Affected by the policy of energy saving and emission reduction and elimination of backward production capacity, the implementation of the policy of "sluice restriction" in the early Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is relatively loose. However, since late August, local governments have strictly implemented the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the measures of "sluice restriction" have been enforced, and the overall production reduction of PTA downstream enterprises has intensified.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are PTA, polyester, long silk, printing and dyeing enterprises are relatively concentrated areas, it is reported that late Shaoxing Jin Xin, Wujiang Hengli, Ningbo Kang Xin polyester enterprises have parking action.

The main polyester production bases such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang are affected by energy conservation and emission reduction policies. The start-up rate of polyester enterprises is limited. The downstream printing and dyeing industry has eliminated backward production capacity, resulting in some enterprises being shut down. The market demand for PTA downstream has been decreasing. This is the main factor that restricts the price rise of PTA in the near future.

Although the recent power restriction factors of downstream industries that restrict PTA price rise exist, but the downstream enterprises have more sharp views on "sluice restriction", and are gradually entering the peak season of textile consumption in autumn and winter. The rigid demand in the downstream textile and garment industry is there, and will not be reduced due to the regulation of national policies.

When supply constraints result in the terminal market demand can not be met, the tension in the textile and garment market will be pmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain, which will aggravate the market demand for PTA in the short term, thereby stimulating the PTA price to continue to rise.

Recently, some PTA production enterprises entered the production and maintenance period, which reduced the market supply to a certain extent. Although the demand for downstream polyester enterprises decreased, the pressure on PTA stocks did not increase significantly.

It is expected that there will be a number of planned shutdown inspections of PTA plants in Asia in 9 and October, including the three production lines of Yangzi Petrochemical 1 million 300 thousand tons / year, the 1 million 500 thousand tons / year equipment of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, the 550 thousand tons / year device of India IOC company, the 3 KP plant of South Korea KP chemical plant, the 600 thousand ton / year installation of Ningbo platform, and the current maintenance of the plant makes the rate of operation decline, and at the same time, the basic supply and demand of PTA market is relatively strong.

Therefore, with the relatively strong supply and demand fundamentals of PTA, the reduction of PTA demand caused by downstream power rationing is a temporary phenomenon, which is difficult to fundamentally reverse the real demand of downstream industries for PTA.

Textile costs and demand rise simultaneously to help raise PTA price.

Cotton and PTA are the main sources of textile materials. Since the 2009/2010, cotton prices have been rising steadily in the three rounds of national dumping. At present, cotton spot prices have reached a record high, while the US cotton price is trying to challenge the 2008 high of 98 cents / pounds. The rise of cotton prices has played a significant supporting and pulling role in the price of PTA.

Since September, the domestic polyester fiber market has been booming. The prices of major products have remained stable, which has created favorable conditions for PTA prices to remain strong.

At present, some textile enterprises have begun to stock up to meet the most important season of clothing production in the whole year. The consumption of textile raw materials in autumn and winter accounts for 1/3 of the total annual consumption.

In the early September, the foreign trade situation of "Christmas order" began to pick up. It has basically stabilized at the level before the financial crisis in 2008.

European orders are more optimistic, especially in the German economy, with the fastest growth in orders in Germany.

Many export enterprises have also increased their bargaining power. Taking advantage of the order, they will shift the upward cost to downstream customers.

At present, the cost and demand of raw materials for textiles are rising, which is obvious and direct for the support of PTA price.

To sum up, the commodity market has been rising obviously since late July. At present, the Mid Autumn Festival and national day are approaching, the rhythm of market evasion risk is quickening and the oscillation intensifies.

The overall sharp drop in September 9th also brought a cool sense to the rising market. The CPI data just released in August brought more worries to the market. However, at present, the domestic and international economic environment is generally stable, and the upstream and downstream industries of PTA are more active, and the demand for textile exports is obvious.

Therefore, in the context of short to play games, the PTA price is expected to break through the 8000 yuan / ton mark.